本文介绍了风险管理的产生、国内外发展现状、以及在电力调度系统中引入
风险管理理论的意义，即能够有效的对电力安全生产管理固有的体系进行改进和
完善，使电力调度的安全管理工作更加全面和科学。结合地市级电网调度生产的
特点，利用事故树分析法对地市级电网调度面临的风险进行了分类研究，在确定
了地市级电网调度风险控制原则、思路及方法的基础上，提出了针对性的风险控
制策略和建议，并以西安电网为例，探讨了调度运行风险控制的实际应用及做法，
即以风险提前辨识、评估和预控为主要管理内容，将安全风险防范的把控关口前
移，重点放在事前的风险分析、评估和提前控制上，实现主动的、提前的电网调
度风险管理。最后基于地市级电力企业调度生产运行特点，提出了地市级电网调
度运行风险管理的体系框架和管理流程，从管理理念、方法和业务流程上确保电
网调度运行生产风险可控、能控、在控，并以新设备启动和电网运行风险预警管
控机制为例详细解释了电网调度风险管理流程的流转、改进过程
关键词：电网调度；风险管理；安全生产；电力事故华北电力大学硕士学位论文
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Abstract
Recent years, the development pace of state - owned enterprises and electric
power system has been quickened. With further deepening development of electric
power system, power enterprises urgently need to establish a management system that
can adapt to modern enterprises. At present, risk management, along with enterp rise
strategic management and business management, has already becomes a very
important component in modern enterprise management.
This paper introduces the emergence of risk management, research status in
domestic and aboard, and the meaning of bringing the risk management theory into
electric power dispatching system. If inherent system of electric power safety
management can be effectively improved and consummated taking advantages of risk
management theory, the safety management work of electric power dispatching will
become more comprehensive and scientific. Considering the characteristics of
city-level power grid dispatching, this paper proposes targeted risk control strategies
and recommendations, which utilizes fault tree analysis method to conduct
classification study in the risk confronted by city-level power grid dispatching, whose
principal, idea and method is also taken into consideration. Taking Xi’an power grid
as an example, this paper discusses practical application and practice of dispatchin g
risk management, which takes risk identification, assessment and pre-control as the
main management content. This method can achieve the target of making
dispatching work proactively and beforehand, by moving forward the control gate of
security risk prevention and focusing on prior risk analysis, evaluation and early
control. Least but not the last, this paper also puts forward the system framework
and management process of risk management based on the features of city-level
power grid dispatching, which can make sure that the dispatching risk is controllable
and under control from view of management philosophy, methods and business
process. Lastly, the paper also exhaustively explains the circulation and improvement
process of risk management process taking example of early warning control
mechanism in new equipment start-up and grid operation.
Keywords: Electric Power Dispatching，risk management, safety in production,
electric accident华北电力大学硕士学位论文
III
目 录
摘要 ........... I
ABSTRACT.....II
第 1 章 绪 论 ...1
1.1 课题背景及研究的目的和意义 .1
1.2 电网调度风险管理研究动态 .....2
1.3 本文研究内容、方法和技术路线 .........5
第 2 章 地市级电网调度风险管理研究基础 .6
2.1 风险管理基本理论 .........6
2.1.1 风险及风险管理的概念......6
2.1.2 风险管理流程..........7
2.1.3 风险识别及评估......7
2.1.4 风险控制......8
2.2 我国电网调度风险管理现状 .....8
2.2.1 我国电网调度系统结构.......8
2.2.2 地区调度安全风险管理的现状及优缺点...9
2.2.3 风险管理在调度安全生产中的意义和作用.........10
2.3 本章小结 ...........10
第 3 章 地市级电网调度风险识别与评估 ...12
3.1 电网调度风险特点 .......12
3.2 风险辨识的方法选择 ...13
3.3 地市级电力调度风险辨识 .......14
3.3.1 人身事故调度风险15
3.3.2 电网事故调度风险18
3.3.3 设备事故调度风险21
3.4 基于层次分析法的电力系统风险评估22
3.4.1 电力系统风险评估与层次分析法原理....22
3.4.2 层次分析法在电网调度风险管理的应用24
3.5 本章小结 ...........26
第 4 章 地市级电网调度风险控制 ...27华北电力大学硕士学位论文
IV
4.1 电网调度风险控制原则、思路及方法27
4.2 地市级电网调度风险控制措施 ...........27
4.2.1 人身事故风险控制...........
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