本文针对中国当前人口和产业结构的特征,使用1990-2015年的数
据,通过STIRPAT扩展模型和岭回归法对中国碳排放的影响因素进行研
宄。结果表明,1990-2015年间,人口数量、老年抚养比、少儿抚养比和
产业结构是影响碳排放的主要因素,其中人口数量、老年抚养比和产业结
构对碳排放有着正向的促进作用,少儿抚养比对碳排放则有反向的抑制作
用。同时,本文还对比了各个因素在东中西部地区对碳排放的影响程度,
发现产业结构在东部地区对碳排放有促进作用,而在中部和西部地区对碳
排放有抑制作用
另外,本文还利用灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测了中国2020-2030年二氧
化碳排放量的变化趋势,通过预测结果我们发现中国未来二氧化碳排放量
有着上升的态势,但增速有所放缓,东部地区的二氧化碳排放将占据较大
的比例。在制定减排政策时,政府需要重视人口结构因素,通过化解产业北京化工大学硕士学位论文
结构矛盾,推进供给侧结构性改革,各地区实行差异化减排战略来控制碳
排放
关键词:碳排放,人口老龄化,产业结构,GM (1,1)
il
ABSTRACT
IMPACT OF POPULATION AND INDUSTRIAL
STRUCTURE ON CARBON EMISSIONS AND EMISSIONS
TREND PREDICTION IN CHINA
ABSTRACT
With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, China also plants to
reach its C02peak in around 2030. As the largest carbon emission country in
the world, China’s emission reduction mission is very urgent now. As we all
know, China has entered the aging society, and since there is a huge gap in
economic development, structure of population and energy consumption
among regions, it is necessary to analyze the impact factors of carbon
emissions and take actions to reduce carbon emissions, which can help China
achieve its goal.
This paper considers the current status of the structure of population and
industry and uses Ridge Regression Method and extended ST1RPAT Model to
analyze the impact factors of carbon emissions in China, which is based on
data from year 1990 to 2015. The results show that population aging,
industrial structure and per-capita wealth have a positive influence on carbon
ijj
北京化工大学硕士学位论文
emissions, while energy intensity has an inhibiting and lowest effect on carbon
emissions during the study period. Meanwhile, this paper also compares the
impact factors by regions, and we find that industrial structure has a positive
influence in east area and it has an inhibiting effect in middle and west area.
In addition, this paper also uses GM (1,1) Model to predict future carbon
emissions from year 2020 to 2030 in China. It concludes that carbon emissions
have an upward trend in the future, but its growth rate will slow down, and the
C〇2 emissions in east area will occupy a large proportion. As a result, the
government should focus more on the structure of population, adjust the
industrial structure, speed up the supply-side reform and adopt differentiation
strategy in different regions to control carbon emissions.
KEY WORDS: carbon emissions; population aging; industrial structure;
GM (1,1)
IV
第一章绪论
目录
第一章绪论 1
1.1研宄背景 1
1.2研宄目的及意义1.3研宄方法及框架1.4关于碳排放问题的研宄现状1.4.1基于人口因素对碳排放的研宄1.4.2基于产业结构因素对碳排放的研宄1.4.3关于碳排放问题的预测研宄1.4.4研究成果述评第二章理论基础与方法架构2. 1人口、产业结构与碳排放问题相关理论2. 1.1环境库兹涅茨曲线2. 1.2经济增长理论2.1.3人口与环境相关理论2. L 4产业结构与环境相关理论2.2有关碳排放影响因素的研究模型2.2. 1 IPAT模型及其改进模型2. 2, 2解决STIRPAT模型变量共线性的方法2. 义碳丨丨丨:放趋势预测的研宂投2.3.1碳排放预测模型的简介2.3. 2 碳排放预测模型的比较
21
第三章人口和产业结构对碳排放影响程度的实证分析
23
3. 1数据来源、变量选取与估算
23
V
北京化工大学硕士学位论文
3.1.1变量定义及选取
23
3.1.2数据来源与指标计算
25
3.1.3变量的描述性统计
26
3. 2统计检验 27
3. 2. 1 平稳性检验
28
3.2.2自相关检验
29
3.3基于岭回归法的碳排放影响因素的实证分析
29
3.3.1基于全国数据的碳排放影响因素实证分析
29
3.3.2基于区域数据的碳排放影响因素实证分析
32
3.3.3碳排放影响因素实证分析的比较
35
3.3.4政策建议
36
第四章碳排放趋势预测的实证分析
39
4. 1数据来源、变量选取与估算
39
4.2基于全国数据的碳排放趋势预测实证分析
39
4.3基于分区域数据的碳排放趋势预测的比较分析
40
第五章研究结论和展望
43
5. 1研宄结论 43
5. 2相关建议 43
5.3未来的研宄展望
45
参考文献 47
卽射 51
研究成果及发表的学术论文
53
作者和导师简介
55
VI Contents
Contents
Chapter I Introduction1.1 Background 1
1.2 Research Objective and Meaning1.3 Research Method and Framework1.4 Reviews of Previous Studies of Carbon Emissions1.4.1 Carbon Emissions Studies from the Perspective of Population1.4.2 Carbon Emissions Studies from the Perspective of Industrial Structure1.4.3 Carbon Emissions Prediction Studies1.4.4 Reviews of Research ResultsChaper II Theoretical Basis and Methodologies2.1 Theories of Population, Industrial Structure and Carbon Emissions2.1.1 Environmental Kuznets Curve2.1.2 Theories of Economic Growth2.1.3 Theories of Population and Environment2.1.4 Theories of Industiral Structure and Environment2.2 Models about Influence Factors Research for Carbon Emissions2.2.1 IP AT Model and Its Extended Models2.2.2 Methodologies to Solve Multicollinearity in STIRPAT Model2.3 Models about Prediction Research for Carbon Emissions2.3.1 Introduction of Carbon Emissions Prediction Models2.3.2 Compasion of Carbon Emissions Prediction Models
21
Chapter III Empirical Study of Impact of Population and Industrial
Structure on Carbon Emissions
23
3.1 Data and Variable
23
VII
北京化工大学硕士学位论文
3.1.1 Data Definition and Variable Selection
23
3.1.2 Data Source and Variable Calculation
25
3.1.3 Descriptive Statistics
26
3.2 Statistic Tests 27
3.2.1 Stationarity Tests
28
3.2.2 Autocorrelation Tests
29
3.3 Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions Factors by Ridge Regression
29
3.3.1 Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions Factors with National Data
29
3.3.2 Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions Factors with Regional Data
32
3.3.3 Comparison on Results about Carbon Emissions Factors
35
3.3.4 Policies and Suggestions
36
Chapter IV Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions Trends
39
4.1 Data and Variable
39
4.2 Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions Trends with National Data
39
4.3 Comparision on Carbon Emissions Trends with Regional Data
40
Chapter V Study Conclution and Expectation
43
5.1 Conclution 43
5.2 Suggestions 43
5.2 Future Studies 45
Reference 47
Acknowledgements
51
Research Findings and Paper Publications
53
Author and Tutor Introduction
55
VJ1I
第一章绪论
第一章绪论
1.1研究背景
2015年底,巴黎气候大会顺利召开,碳排放这一问题再次引起了世界各国与
。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看
==>>