Sustaining Resilience WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE APRIL 2017 WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE APRIL 2017 Sustaining Resilience 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000; Internet: worldbank Some rights reserved 123420191817 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The fndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily refect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, fgures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank. ISBN (electronic):978-1-4648-1086-2 DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1086-2 Cover photo:Aileen Dimatatac / World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Budy Wirasmo. Contents List of Abbreviations xiii Preface and Acknowledgments xv Executive Summary xvii Part I. Recent Developments and Outlook 1 I.A. Recent Developments 2 Growth in developing East Asia and Pacifc remains resilient, also supported with some recovery in the external environment in the second half of 2016 and early 20172 Exports show early signs of recovery across much of the region 8 Domestic demand across much of the region was buoyant, refecting accommodative macroeconomic policies and tight labor markets 10 Private sector credit growth is moderating slightly, but debt stocks remain elevated 12 Infation is edging up, and producer prices are rising rapidly 13 Renewed capital outfows toward the end of 2016 led to exchange rate depreciations, but external fnancial conditions have stabilized in 201714 Recent developments in the Pacifc Island Countries 22 Poverty and inclusiveness: sustained progress, but challenges remain 22 I.B. Outlook and Risks 28 Growth is expected to moderate in China, but pick up slightly in the rest of the region 28 Poverty will continue to fall across most of the region, refecting rising labor incomes and low unemployment 32 Domestic demand will support growth, with a rising contribution from exports, across much of the region 33 The normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies may test the region’s resilience, especially in countries with elevated external debt, or high and rising private sector leverage 35 A sharp slowdown in world trade or in China could signifcantly affect the region 43 Fiscal defcits are expected to remain elevated in several countries, in some cases posing risks to fscal sustainability 44 The outlook for the Pacifc Island Countries is positive, but they remain especially vulnerable to shocks 49 I.C. Policy Considerations 54 Elevated global policy uncertainty places a large premium on macroeconomic prudence 54 Ensuring sustained growth and greater inclusion 57 References 82 SUSTAINING RESILIENCE LIST oF ConTEnTS III
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