ADBI Working Paper Series
THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
IN THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP
Linda Glawe and
Helmut Wagner
No.749
June 2017
Asian Development Bank Institute
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Suggested citation:
Glawe, L. and H. Wagner.2017. The People’s Republic of China in the Middle-Income Trap
ADBI Working Paper 749. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute. Available:
https://adb/publications/prc-middle-income-trap
Please contact the authors for information about this paper.
Email: linda.glawe@fernuni-hagen.de, helmut.wagner@fernuni-hagen.de
A first version of this paper was presented at the ADBI-CASS Conference, The Middle
Income Trap in Asia.” We would like to thank all participants and discussants of the
conference as well as Denis Stijepic for his helpful comments.
Linda Glawe is a researcher at the department of macroeconomics, University of Hagen.
Helmut Wagner is Chair in Macroeconomics, Faculty of Economics, University of Hagen.
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ADBI Working Paper 749 Glawe and Wagner
Abstract
Over the last decade, a growing body of literature dealing with the phenomenon of the
middle-income trap”(MIT) has emerged. The term MIT usually refers to countries that have
experienced rapid growth and thus reached the status of a middle-income country (MIC)
in a very short period of time, but have not been able to further catch up with the group of
high-income economies. In particular, since the beginning of the growth slowdown of the
economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2011, there has been rising concern
that the PRC is, or will also be, confronted with such a trap. This paper analyzes the PRC’s
MIT situation taking into account both the (absolute and relative) empirical MIT definitions
and MIT triggering factors identified in the literature. We not only survey the recent literature,
but also make our own MIT forecasts and analyze under which conditions the PRC could be
caught in an MIT.
Keywords: middle-income trap, People’s Republic of China, economic growth, economic
development
JEL Classification: O10, O40, O47, O53
ADBI Working Paper 749 Glawe and Wagner
Contents
1. INTRODUCTION .......1
2. IS THERE AN MIT ...2
3. IS THE PRC ALREADY IN THE MIT OR WILL IT BECOME TRAPPED
IN THE FUTURE .....3
3.1 Definition Approach ....3
3.2 Triggering Factor Approach .12
4. CONCLUDING REMARKS ..31
REFERENCES .......32
APPENDIX A ..........39
APPENDIX B ..........40
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