本文分别采用 Feenstra 方法和熵指标度量了 89 个国家 1997-2011 年的出口产
品多样化水平。前者是参照美国产品种类扩张速度而得出的相对出口产品多样化
水平，后者注重的是产品的分布，各部门产品种类数量越均匀则出口产品多样化
水平程度越高。基于 Feenstra 方法度量出的出口产品多样化结果显示，出口产品
多样化的变化与出口总量的变化保持一致，同时收入水平越高的国家其出口产品
多样化水平越高。而基于熵指标方法度量和分解的出口产品多样化水平结果显示，
各关联度水平的出口产品多样化在样本期间均有小幅度下滑，且上下波动频繁。
接着，文章对出口产品多样化影响因素进行了机理分析，并在此基础上，本
文借鉴 Metlitz（2003）的企业异质性理论模型，结合 Parteka&Tamberi（2008）
和 Agosin et al（2012）构建计量模型，检验各影响因素的影响效果。实证结果表
明，人力资本、人口规模、贸易自由化、外商直接投资、人力资本与技术差距的
交叉项、人力资本与金融发展程度的交叉项、政府发展变量等因素对出口产品多
样化有显著的促进作用，而固定贸易成本对出口产品多样化有副作用，同时发现
人均收入对出口产品多样化的影响呈倒“U”型。最后文章根据上述结论提出相应
地政策建议。
关键词：出口产品多样化；影响因素；实证分析出口产品多样化影响因素的实证研究
III
Abstract
In order to deal with external shocks such as financial crisis, Each country has to
take strong measures to stabilize exports and improve trade conditions to boost the
country's economic growth. Export diversification is one of the main measures.
Diversification of export products has been documented to promote a country's
economic growth. However, whether the increase of export volume can improve
diversification of export products, and what factors can promote export diversification
levels, that is essential.
This article use Feenstra method and entropy index to measure 89 countries’
export variety from 1997 to 2011. The former is relative export diversification
referring to the expansion speed of American’s export products ,while the latter focus
on the distribution of export product, and the more uniform of product categories in
all departments ,the higher of export variety. The results of Feenstra method show that
the change of total amount exports and the change of export products diversification
is consistent, and the higher the income the higher export diversification. The results
of the entropy index show that all level of export product diversification decline small
in the sample period and fluctuated frequently.
Then, this paper constructs econometric models, which based on the mechanism
analysis on the factors of export diversification , enterprise heterogeneity theory
model in Metlitz (2003) and Parteka&Tamberi (2008) and Agosin et al(2012) to test
the effect of various factors. The empirical results show that human capital,
population size, trade liberalization, foreign direct investment, cross-term between
human capital and technology gap, cross-term between human capital and the
development of finance play significant role in promoting export product variety,
while fixed costs have side effects.The results also found that there is a inverted U
shape between GDP per capita and diversification. Finally, the article provides policy
recommendations according to these conclusions
Key words: Export Product Diversification; Factors；Empirical Analysis
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