中文摘要
近年来世界经济危机频发,美国在2008年爆发次贷危机,迪拜在2009年发
生债务危机,希腊、爱尔兰、葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利等欧洲国家在2009年底
爆发主权债务危机。欧盟是我国的主要贸易伙伴国之一,欧盟已经成为我国第一
大出口市场,是我国的第一大贸易伙伴,此外还是我国的第一大技术引进来源地
和第二大进口市场。这次欧盟爆发欧债危机,无疑会对我国的对外贸易产生巨大
的冲击

本文对欧债危机爆发的原因及演进路径进行研究。对欧债危机爆发的原因进
行了细致的分析。在对欧债危机对我国出口贸易进行实证分析,从我国出口目标
国家(地区)角度,按照一定标准筛选出47个国家(地区)组成面板。这47
个国家中有20个国家是欧盟国家,其余27个国家(地区)是非欧盟国家,这两
类国家分别组成欧盟20国面板,非欧盟27国面板。从收入、汇率、融资约束、
外商直接投资等维度选取指标对面板进行计量分析。为了探讨次贷危机、欧债危
机对我国出口贸易是否有显著性影响,加入两个虚拟变量进行分析。最后通过对
三个相互关联的面板进行对比分析

在欧债危机影响我国出口的因素研究结果中,47国面板与非欧盟27国面板
结果较为一致,欧盟20国而板与二者有一定差别。所有影响因素中,GDP增长
率、相对人均GDP、汇率因素、银行部门提供的国内信贷增长对三个面板有较显
著的影响。我国对一国的FDI占其当年引入FDI百分比指标除了在欧盟20国面
扳中不显著,在其余两个面板中均有显著的负向影响。上述影响因素中,在欧债
危机中收入因素对我国出口的影响较人,汇率因素、银行部门提供的信贷和我国
对一国的FDI占其3年引入FDI百分比因素对我国出U的影响较小。两次金融危
机的虚拟变量Dtl、Dt2在三个面板中均具有显著的影响

关键同:欧债危机出口贸易影响因素面板数据模型
Abstract
World economic crisis occurred frequently in recent years. The United States
subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2008, The Dubai debt crisis broke out in 2009;
Greece、Ireland、Portugal、Italy and other European countries occurred european
debt crisis in 2009. The EU is the main market and trade partner of China, has
become China's largest export market, is China's trading partner, is also China's
largest technology import source and the second largest import market. The
outbreak of the debt crisis in the EU, will do a great impact on China's Foreign trade.
At first I do research on causes and evolution path in the outbreak of the debt
crisis, then empirical analysis the european debt crisis on China's export trade. From
the view of China's export target country(region), select 47 countries(regions)
according to certain standard , the 47 countries are as the whole panel, then divided
the panel to two panels according to if the country is belong to European Union or
not, 20 countries are the countries of the European Union and they are EU panel ,
27countries are not EU countries and they are non EU panel. Selecte indicators to
analysis of the panels; the indicators are about income、exchange rate、foreign direct
investment and financing constraints. In order to study the effects of the subprime
crisis, join two dummy variables for analysis. Finally, comparative analysis of the
three panels.
The results of the research is 47 countries panel and non-EU panel's results are
similar, some difference between the EU panel. In all the influence factors'GDP
growth rate, relative per capita GDP, exchange rate factors, the domestic banking
sector credit growth has a significant effect on the three panels. Two financial crisis
dummy variables Dtl,Dt2 has significant influence in the three panels.
Key Words: European Crisis Exports Influence Indicator Panal Data Model