随着现代社会国民经济的发展,电网的发展状况直接关系到一个国家或地

区的经济社会发展状况及发展方式。电网规划是实施电力发展建设的一个重要

环节。为了促进建德地区的建设和经济发展,为了使电网建设与改造更加科学、

合理和规范,使配电系统网架更加合理、优化,企业运行更为经济,进行电网

规划具有重要理论意义和现实价值。

负荷预测是电网规划决策、经济运行的前提和基础。准确的负荷预测可以

确保电网运行方式满足安全、可靠、经济的原则,减少不确定性造成供电与用

电的差异,使各部门按各自功能所做决策得到顺利执行,体现社会效益的最大

化。可见,在电力系统不断发展和改革的今天,如何提高负荷预测准确率已迫

在眉睫。而如何根据负荷增长规划出合理的满足负荷空间布局特点的电网结构,

使各区域都能满足安全、可靠、经济的要求,是电网规划面临的严峻任务。

本文对建德地区电网的现状与存在的主要问题进行了全面归纳、分析,并

结合建德地区电网的布局情况,进行了多种方法的负荷预测分析,吸取各种预

测方法的优点,提出了更加科学合理的电量需求和电力负荷预测方法。在此基

础上,本文按照负荷空间布局情况对建德地区进行了供电区域的划分,对各区

域指出了具有差异化的规划目标和原则,并提出了适应负荷空间布局特点的电

网结构调整意见和电网规划管理建议。

关键词:负荷预测;电网规划;负荷空间布局;差异性;政策建议

I

Abstract

With the development of modern society and economy, the progress of power

grid is directly related to the development of a country or a region, while power grid

planning is an important part of the implementation of grid progress construction.

For the purpose of promoting the construction and economic development of Jiande,

network planning is of great theoretical and practical value, which can build a more

scientific, reasonable and optimal distribution system grid.

Load forecasting is the premise and the foundation of grid planning decisions

and economic operation. Accurate load forecasting can ensure the grid operation

mode to meet the principles of safety, reliability and economy, reduce uncertainty

which cause differences in power supply and consumption, so that decisions made

by every department according to their ftmction can be implemented successfully

and it can reflect the maximization of social benefits. Therefore, it can be seen that

it is extremely urgent to improve the load forecasting accuracy to follow the

continuous development and reform of the power system today. Moreover, it is a

severe task of grid planning to plan a reasonable grid structure which can meet the

characteristic of load space layout occording to the load growth, so that every

region can meet the requirements of safety, reliability and economy.

This paper makes a comprehensive induction and analysis of the status and the

main problems of the power grid in Jiande. Combined with the regional power grid

layout, a variety of load forecasting methods has been used to analyze in order to

absorb the advantages to find more scientific and reasonable methods of load

forecasting. On this basis,the paper divides the power supply region of Jiande

according to the load situation, points out the regional differences in objectives and

principles of grid planning. At last, the paper points out grid restructuring advice

adapted to the load space layout and network planning and management

suggestions.

Keywords: load forecasting; grid planning; load space layout; differentiation;

policy recommendations.