摘要
近十年来,世界光伏产业以40%以上的年复合增长率高速发展。在近十年的发展
历程中,经历了两次的大起大落,涌现出了若干个产业巨头与富豪,也给世人展现着
市场的残酷:特别是2011年以来,相当多曾经号称“印钞机”的光伏企业负债累累、
处于破产的边缘,曾经不可一世的业界大佬开始奔走呼号,让政府出手救助中国的光
伏产业⑴
虽然很多人针对中国光伏产业也做过研究,但是对近期出现的严重的供过于求、
欧美发起的反倾销、反补贴调查等状况,并没有做深入的调查和分析,更多的是从基
本面上指出这些状况的存在
针对光伏产业的上述状况,本文釆用《美国产业结构》的产业分析范式,尤其是
参照了其中同样作为主要能源的石油产业[2],对光伏产业做了深度的调查和研究,分析
了现阶段严重的供需失衡的状况和原因,预测了中国光伏产业的发展趋势,并从经济
学的角度,给出了解决现阶段的供需失衡、贸易战等问题的对策,对中国光伏产业发
展政策的制定和企业的战略部署与调整具有一定的参考价值
本文主要包括以下四个部分的内容
第一部分,简要阐述了本研究的背景和文献综述,就本文的研究内容、方法、意
义及创新点做了简单的脉络整理
第二部分,即第2章和第3章,是光伏产业的概述部分,讲述了光伏产业的发展
历程和产业结构以及光伏的应用情况
第三部分,第4章分析了光伏产业的供需关系,第5章阐述了各国的光伏产业政
策和欧美对中国光伏产品的双反问题,第6章分析了具有代表性的中国光伏企业的经
营状况。第7章,作为以上三章的总结,宏观上指出了光伏产业现状和面临的问题
第四部分,第8章,针对中国光伏产业面临的问题,给出了相应的对策建议
关键词光伏;供需关系;政策;贸易战
ABSTRACT
In the past ten years, the world photovoltaic industry was developing rapidly with more
than 40% compound annual growth. In the recent ten years of development, through two
dramatic ups and downs, photovoltaic industry brings up many giants and millionaires, and
shows the world cruelty of the market as well: especially since 2011, a number of solar PV
enterprises once called money makers are in debt or at the edge of bankruptcy and the best
industries go around crying the government for help.
Although many people have done researches on China's photovoltaic industry, most of
them just basically point out the existence of these conditions like recent serious glut, Europe
and the United States launched anti-dumping and countervailing investigation, etc., and don't
do in-depth investigation and analysis.
In view of the above conditions of photovoltaic industry, the thesis adopts the paradigm
of industrial analysis(references the oil industry) mentioned in American IndusUy Structure
to do in-depth investigation and research on the photovoltaic industry, analyzes the situations
and reasons of severe unbalance of supply and demand in the present stage and forecasts the
development tendency of China photovoltaic industry. Meanwhile, the thesis gives out
countermeasures of the unbalance of supply and demand, trade wars at the present from the
perspective of economics, which have certain reference values for the development of China
photovoltaic industry and the enterprise's strategy.
The thesis mainly includes the following four parts:
Part I briefly describes the research background and literature review and does a simple
context arrangement of contents, methods, significance and the innovation points.
Part II,that is, the chapter 2 and 3,is the overview of photovoltaic industry. It tells the
development of photovoltaic industry and the industrial structure.
Part III includes chapter 4, 5,6 and 7. Chapter 4 analyzes the relationship between
supply and demand of the PV industry. Chapter 5 describes the PV industry policy and the
EU and USA's anti-dumping and countervailing to China's PV. Chapter 6 analyzes the
conditions of the typical Chinese PV companies. Chapter 7 summarizes the PV industry
status and problems faced at macroscopic level from the above three chapters.
Part IV, chapter 8,gives the corresponding countermeasure in view of the problems that
the photovoltaic industry faces with.
Key Words Photovoltaic, Supply and Demand, Policy, Trade War