摘要
与西方发达资本市场相比,我国在资本市场才成立20多年,是比较年轻的
资本市场。但近年来随着中国A股市场不断的改革,特别是全流通后股指期货
和融资融券的推出,做空A股市场系统功能的不断完善,过去那种依靠单纯靠
小道消息,纯K线技术的投资思路和方法完全不能适应如今的股票市场。基于
实证的价值投资分析理念,if.在被越來越广泛的应用于企业和有识之士,人们
不断总结理论,概括和产业实践的成功,既给对投资者正确的引领,同时也不
断规范证券与资本市场,为中国证券和资本市场积累丰富的经验。
以选取“朗科科技”为研究标的,本文整体上可分为三个部分,第一部分是
对公司估值方法和估值特点的详细介绍。第一章和第二章在介绍了本文研究背
景的前提下,提出各类不同估值方法的特点。第二部分是对朗科科技所处的行
业宏观进行详细分析。本文第三章首先通过对移动存储行业过去发展状况进行
研究,阐述该行业的发展特点,市场规模及在中国市场的特殊情况,以实证研
究和自上而下的方法,从宏观面分析入手,对电子行业发展空间作初步评估,将
“朗科科技”所处的宏观环境和行业发展趋势作出详尽的分析。第三部分通过
分析朗科科技的商业模式,以过往的经营业绩为基础,对公司未来的经验情况
进行预测,对股价作出合理估值。木文的第四章,主要阐述了朗科公司的业务
发展模式,主要包括专利技术的研发模式、生产运营模式和销售模式。第五章
通过结合公司过去5年的经营业绩,判断其自身的经营管理能力及发展规划等。
第六章以上述因素为基础,运用各种估值理论体系对公司的价值进行测算、汇
总;同时,将“朗科科技”的估值结果与目甜股票市场的系统风险系数相结合,
进而进行重新投资的可行性评估,最终对“朗科科技”公司的价值做出合理的估
值。第七章是通过分析后,本文得出的结论及相关的建议。
通过论文的研究,对比朗科公司过去的经营业绩和同行业其他上市公司近
5年的财务数据相比较,可以得出朗科公司过去经营业绩较为稳定,但是通过资
本市场公开发行股票并上市募集资金后,并没有有效的利用募集资金扩大企业
的生产规模和市场空间。虽然朗科公司在同行业上市公司中盈利能力不错,但
是由于规模较小,半导体行业处于下行周期,因此朗科公司的财务状况近年来
有恶化的趋势。同时对朗科公司运用绝对估值法、相对估值法下的投资价值理
论和估值、风险评析,解剖研究对象,对“朗科科技”公司所作的投资价值分析,
得出股价被高估,目前暂时不适合投资的结论。
关键词:价值投资;红利贴现模型;自由现金流贴现模型;朗科科技
Abstract
Compared with Europe and other countries and regions, the market for hundreds
of years, our country was formally established in 1990, China's securities market,
capital market also appears to be relatively young, but with the recent reform of
China's A-share market, especially after circulation stock index futures and margin
trading launch, and constantly improve the short a-share market system functions, and
in the past that rely simply relying on hearsay,ideas and methods of pure K-line
technology investments we lopsided. Accordingly, based on the concept of value
investing empirical analysis, is being more widely used in corporate and insight,
people are constantly sum up the theory, outlined the success and industry practice,
both to the right leads to investors, but also continue to regulate the securities and
capital markets, as China has accumulated rich experience in the securities and capital
markets.
China's market prospects of the electronics industry, has shown a larger space
for development, economic restructuring process in the future may be further
established strong national policy support, they may continue to be the depth of love
and prospects of people. Accordingly, the paper selects Netac Technology for the
study of the subject to empirical research and top-down approach, starting from a
macroeconomic analysis of the electronics industry development space for a
preliminary assessment, the Netac Technology in which the macro side,industry
trends and the company's own management capacity and development plan and other
factors combine and on this basis the company's results for the next few years to make
predictions; theoretical system using a variety of valuation is calculated on the value
of the company, summary; while , the Netac Technology with the current system of
valuation risk factors combined with the stock market,and then re-evaluate the
feasibility of investment, and ultimately come to a Netac Technology, the company's
current stock price is overvalued, there are not suited to Conclusion investment.
In this paper, the relative valuation method, the absolute value of the company's
investment valuation method and valuation theory, risk assessment, anatomic study of
the investment value Netac Technology, the company's analysis, no doubt to
industry colleagues to provide a theory with practice the empirical research and the
use of thinking. Although still own opinion,but I still expect to give investors and
relevant parties concerned with the healthy growth of business people with lofty
ideals to provide some investment, research methodology reference.
Keywords: Investment Values; Discounted Dividend Model; Free Cash Flow Model;
Netac Technology Limited