摘要
现代物流业作为一个集商流、资金流、信息流、人才流为一体的新兴产业,
在国民经济中起着极其重要的作用。现代物流业已经成为一个城市国民经济发
展的大动脉，对降低商品流通成本，合理利用社会资源，促进社会经济产生了
巨大的作用。
2011 年 5 月 6 日，国务院批准出台了《关于支持云南加快建设面向西南开
放重要桥头堡的意见》，昆明作为云南省会和唯一的特大中心城市，依托“桥
头堡”战略的实施，西部大开发的机遇以及中国－东盟自由贸易区的深入合作，
在面向东南亚、南亚的地位和作用日益凸显。昆明市独特的资源优势、产业特
色、区位优势，决定了其强大的物流需求及广阔的物流发展空间。积极发展现
代物流业将为昆明市区域经济发展提供最合理的综合服务，从而对昆明市社会
经济跨越式发展产生深远的影响。随着云南省大通道建设的快速推进，构建与“桥
头堡”城市相适应的现代物流体系，将对昆明市提升城市综合竞争力，扩大城市
辐射功能，扩大与周边区域互动发展，加快国际化进程和实现建设国际区域城
市的发展目标，都具有十分重大的作用。
本文通过对昆明市现代物流体系构建现状的调查，找出了构建现代物流体
系所面临的问题；通过 SWOT(优势、劣势、机遇、威胁)分析，对影响昆明市构
建现代物流体系的环境进行比较全面的分析，为昆明市构建科学、合理、高效
的现代物流体系提供基本思路；利用 GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，对昆明市现代物流
业需求量进行预测；利用 PEST 分析，得出构建现代物流体系的必要性和可行性。
在此基础上，提出了构建昆明市现代物流体系的具体实施方案，构建内容包括
物流基地、物流园区、交通基础设施、物流信息平台。
关键词：昆明市；现代物流业；物流需求预测；物流体系构建；物流园区
Abstract
Modern logistics industry as a set of business flow, capital flow, information
flow, personnel flow as one of the emerging industries, plays a vital role in the
national economy. Modern logistics industry has become a city of national economic
development accelerator, had a huge role to reduce the cost of commodity circulation,
rational use of social resources to promote socio-economic.
May 6, 2011, the State Council approved the introduction of the Yunnan to
accelerate the construction of an important bridgehead open to the southwest of
opinions, Kunming, Yunnan Province, and the only large central cities, relying on
the bridgehead for the implementation of the strategy, the western development
opportunities China - ASEAN Free Trade Area of the in-depth cooperation, status and
role in Southeast Asia, South Asia has become increasingly prominent. Kunming is
the unique advantages in resources, industry characteristics, location advantages,
determines its strong logistics demand and extensive logistics development. Actively
develop modern logistics industry to provide the most reasonable services will
Kunming regional economic development, and thus have a profound impact on the
socio-economic, Kunming leaps and bounds. With the rapid advance of Yunnan
Province, a major thoroughfare construction, Construction and bridgehead for the
city to adapt to a modern logistics system, Kunming will enhance the city's
comprehensive competitiveness, expansion of urban radiation function to expand the
interactive development of the surrounding area to speed up the process of
internationalization development Goals and building international and regional cities,
have a very significant role.
Based on the Kunming to build a modern logistics system Survey, to build a modern logistics system to
identify the problems faced; through SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis, the impact of
Kunming to build a modern logistics system to compare the environmental comprehensive analysis of Kunming
build a scientific, rational and efficient modern logistics system to provide basic ideas; utilize GM (1,1) gray
prediction model, the demand for modern logistics industry in Kunming prediction; using the PEST analysis, the
building modern logistics system the necessity and feasibility. On this basis, proposed to build a modern logistics
system in Kunming specific embodiments, including logistics base construction, logistics parks, transportation
infrastructure, logistics information platform.
Key words ： Kunming ； the modern logistics industry ； logistics demand
forecasting； logistics system construction；logisticpark