摘 要
在我国农产品冷链物流业快速发展的背景下，各地政府及投资商都开始重视冷
链物流这一新兴产业市场。这一方面是市场经济发展的需要，另一方面是社会发展
的需要。兴建冷链物流园对保障人民饮食安全，优化人民饮食结构起到了推动作用。
冷链物流业的要求比较高，相应的管理及资金方面的投入比普通物流园更大。
因此，在投资建设冷链物流园时，进行前期项目可行性研究分析是必要的。本文以
重庆 GH 冷链物流园这一投资项目为研究对象，介绍了我国及重庆地区冷链物流产
业的发展基础、重庆市冷链物流发展现状及我国及重庆地区对冷链物流行业发展的
规划要求。重点分析了重庆市冷链物流市场的现状及盈利模式，预测了重庆地区冷
链物流产品需求总量，设计了项目园区功能布局及交通动线组织方案，并结合重庆
本地的实际情况作出项目财务评价，提供全部自有资金及部分自有资金两种情况下
的经济评价指标。本文在研究过程中，采用了包括灰色预测模型及 ARIMA 预测模型、
作业相关图法、平均加权资金成本法、现金流量分析及风险评价分析等方法对项目
可行性研究做了各方面的论证。最后对 GH 冷链物流园项目进行了综合评价。结论
为：本项目市场定位是准确的；本项目具有良好的财务可行性；本项目选择在重庆
地区投资建设冷链物流园是合理的。本研究依托重庆地区经济发展，结合当地冷链
市场现状，研究结果可作为该项目投资决策的参考依据。
关键词：冷链物流 可行性研究 经济效益评价 项目风险分析
Abstract
In the context of the rapid development of China's agricultural products cold chain
logistics industry, local governments and investors are starting to focus on this emerging
industry of cold chain logistics market to response to the demand of both economical and
societal development. The construction of cold chain logistics park has played a catalytic
role both in protecting the security of people's food and optimizing the structure of
people's diet.
Require a relatively high investment in cold chain logistics industry, capital
investment greater than ordinary logistics park too. Therefore, in the investment and
construction of cold chain logistics park, the pre-project feasibility study is necessary. This
dissertation is focus on investment project of Chongqing GH cold chain logistics center,
explaining the fundamental facilities and current situation of cold chain industry in China
and Chongqing, focus analyzing the current situation of cold chain industry in Chongqing
and forecasting the total demand of frozen food products in this area. During the research
process, various methods were used, including Grey prediction method, Relevant
operation diagram method, Cash flow analysis method and Risk assessment analysis
method to work out financial assessment, layout designing and transportation solution of
this project. Lastly, comprehensive assessment of this project were made base on above
analysis, which can be a beneficial reference for investors to make the decision.
Conclusion: the market positioning of the project is accurate which has a good financial
feasibility of the project.
Key words: Cold chain logistics, Feasibility study, Economic benefit evaluation,
Project risk analysis