论文在分析国内外玉米市场供需现状的基础上,以期了解中国玉米进出口
在国际玉米市场的地位。笔者通过研究经济发展、人均收入、玉来库存、气候、
替代品价格、以及全球生物燃料的使用等影响玉来价格波动的因素后,得出世
界玉米价格总体波动特征为:世界玉来价格在1998-2005年总体呈平稳态势,
在2005年开始波动上升。为进一步了解国内外玉来价格的相关性,笔者对国内
玉米期现货市场与美国芝加哥玉米期货市场的研究时发现:芝加哥玉来期货价
格是导致大连玉米期货价格变动的原因,而大连玉米期货价格并不能影响芝加
哥玉米的期货价格;无论是国内期货价格还是国外期货价格都与国内现货价格
长期保持着均衡关系,这说明中国玉来市场对国外玉米期货市场的依存度相对
较大。
为进一步测度国内玉米进出口定价权,笔者首次利用修正后的SMR模型
对中国玉米贸易定价权进行实证分祈,分析结果显示我国玉米出口市场中的定
价权并不显著,而进口市场则不具备定价权,在这种进出口定价权的缺失情况
下要求我们对改善玉米贸易现状提出有效的政策建议。本文基于前文的分析以
及结合国内经济环境,对我国玉米贸易条件的改善提出有效措施,为我国玉米
市场的进步与发展和玉米贸易策略的制定提供相应理论依据与技术支撑。
关键词:玉米,贸易,定价权,期货
Abstract
In the second half of twentieth Century, the global corn production and trade
volume increased significantly. As the international market is speeding up more and
more quickly, the contact between our corn production and international market is
becoming increasingly close. After 2008,China became an corn importer from an
exporter, playing a decisive role in the status of world trade in agricultural products.
But not commensurate with the environment is that our country corn, soybean, wheat,
and other agricultural commodities import enterprises lack the right to speak on the
international market price of agricultural products, to a greater extent, they are the
passive acceptance of the transaction price. In the case of lack of pricing power, it is
becoming more and more urgent for Chinese corn imports, to provide corresponding
countermeasures through the study of volatility of China and the world market price
of corn, which requires us to our change idea, examine the corn trade from the
perspective of the buyer. However, the existing literature is most on the research of
pricing power from the seller&39;s point of view, ignoring the influence of buyer&39;s market,
this paper introduced the research on import pricing based on summarizing the
domestic and oversea research.
First, analyzing home and abroad corn market through planting area yield, feed
grain production, use, from the price of corn supply and demand situation to
understand China&39;s corn import and export status in the international market. Then,
this paper studies the factors influencing the price of com from supply and demand,
corn stocks, climate,substitute price, as well as the use of the global ethanol and other
aspects, the international corn prices overall volatility presents international corn
prices in 1998-2005 showed a stable situation. 2005 began rising. In this paper,
through examining the correlation of futures in domestic and foreign markets, finding
that CBOT Granger-caused DCE; While the futures and spot prices have the
characteristics of unit root, both also have co-integration relationship,which proves
that the domestic futures prices have good price discovery function.
Then this paper uses the modified SMR model to do empirical analysis of
China&39;s corn import and export market finding China has no significant influence of
corn in the export market, while m the import market, China does not have any
market power. This lack of import pricing requires us to formulate effective policies
to improve the current situation of corn imports. So at the end of this paper, based on
the above analysis, this paper puts forward effective measures to improve Chinese
corn imports benefit, providing corresponding theoretical basis and technology
support for China&39;s corn import market.
Key Words: corn, trade, pricing power, future
1绪论
本章主要对论文选题的背景、意义、研究的内容、方法等进行了阐述。第
一节主要分析了文章选题的背景,并在此基础上深入剖析了本文写作的意义;
第二节进一步介绍了笔者研究的思路和方法;第三节简要说明了论文的写作内
容及其结构安排;基于以上分析,在第四节笔者对本文可能的创新点进行了介
绍。
1.1选题背景及意义
改革开放以来,农产品价格经历了近30年来最为严重的冲击,全球主要农
产品价格大幅上涨,在国际市场上,大豆、玉米、小麦期货价格均创30年来新
高。随着价格的升高,全球玉米的供给量不断增加,中国作为玉米的主产国,
对国际玉米供给量的影响不容小觑。然而,随着国内外玉米的播种面积、单产
和总产量的显著提高,玉米的贸易额和贸易量却相对1980年大幅度下降。1993
年,中国玉来出口 1100万吨,并在2003年达到了 1600万吨,然而在2012
年中国玉来的出口量却低于20万吨;中国的玉米进口量近年来波动增长,从
1998年的26.2万吨涨到2012年的500万吨,但是出口量下降的幅度显著大
于进口量增长的幅度,这表明了生产规模的扩大以及产量的增加较大的满足了
我国自身对玉米的需求,从而使得我国玉米贸易量减少。近年来随着油价继续
上涨,养殖业的不断发展,生物燃料需求进一步扩大,库存的不断紧缩以及对
粮食安全的担忧和由此产生的贸易限制,再加上汇率变化和投机活动,国内玉
米的需求量将进一步扩大,种种迹象均表明中国玉米市场有着更加强大的需求
潜力。
然而,目前被称为“世界工厂”的中国却仅仅掌握了一定的生产主导权,
贸易主导权却仍然离我们很远,在建设贸易强国方面,中国显然是“刚上路’:
尤其近五年,在玉米的对外贸易中,中国从一个玉米出口大国逐步转变为玉米
的偶尔进口大国,欧美发达国家出口垄断、国内玉米生产成本及我国玉米的价
格贸易条件都造成了中国在玉来定价权上的逐步减弱。而且随着中国玉米需求
的快速放大,在国内生产水平有限的条件下,中国对玉米的进口将逐渐增加。
根据FAO (2012)预计,未来十年中国玉米的进口量将高于2011/2012年的高
峰水平,玉米实际价格将较1998-2010年平均水平上升15%-40%.中国作为一
==>>