本文介绍了套期保值理论的发展演变，继而引申介绍了已发展出
的套保策略和相应选择。通过研究世界范围内几家主要的润滑油企业
在此方面的实际情况和经验，分析他们的主要思路和类型，得知各综
合性石油公司和独立润滑油公司由于对风险理解的不同，导致了对原
料产品方面的套期保值操作各异。
文章重点探索分析了原油期货和基础油历史价格的关系，继而进
行了交叉套保的情境模拟。通过数据模拟分析和SWOT分析详细分析
了采用交叉套保的成效和涉及到的问题，并得出结论：在明确制定符
合自身目标的成本控制模式的基础上，在充分准备人才和风险管控的
前提下，润滑油生产企业可以在实际业务中采用交叉套期保值对基础
油成本进行管理，来保障企业的采购、生产、销售环节的顺畅进行。
最后进行了总论，对全文进行了总结和展望。
关键词：润滑油、基础油、石油期货、套期保值、交叉套保
ABSTRACT
This paper first introduces the development of lubricant products and
its industry. Under the condition of significant economic growth and
lubricants consumption enlargement at the same time, the lubricant
companies are facing the situation that main raw material, base oil, costs
are difficult to control and that it even threaten the survival of the
companies. In order to get out of this situation, the analysis of cross
hedging on crude oil futures to stabilize the cost of raw material, is a
tryon for lubricant companies, especially small and medium-sized ones,
to explore a viable path.
This article describes the development of the hedging theories, and
then extended to developed hedging strategies and the corresponding
choice. By analyzing their main ideas and types on those integrated or
independent lubricant companies, it is clear that due to different
understanding on risks, these companies have different hedging
operations on raw mateirals.
The articles focus on exploring the relationship between the
historical prices of crude oil futures and base oils, then simulates different
scenario on cross hedging. By simulation analysis and SWOT analysis of
what cross-hedging achieved and the issues appeared, the conclusion is:
when fully understand its own target of cost control and given the able
persons and fixing its risk control system, lubricant companies can adopt
cross-hedging to manage the cost of base oil in the actual business to
guarantee the smooth conduct of the procurement, production, and sales.
Finally, the general summary and outlook of the full text is given.
KEY WORDS: Lubricant, Base Oil, Petroleum Futures, Hedging, Cross
hedging
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