西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文
消费者不确定性折扣偏好的边界条件研究
专
业：工商管理
硕士生：杨文
指导教师：胡海华
摘要
近年来，商家在进行商品促销时越来越多地使用游戏化的不确定性折扣（如通
过盲盒抽奖获取六折优惠），以取代传统的确定性折扣（如直接六折优惠）。营销
学者对不确定性折扣开展了大量研究，提供了消费者偏好不确定性折扣的证据。与
之相反的是，行为经济学文献发现人们倾向于规避不确定性。这样的理论争议表明
消费者的不确定性折扣偏好可能存在边界条件。然而，现有研究尚缺乏足够的探讨。
针对这一理论缺口，本文基于控制错觉和时间压力的相关理论文献，提出影响
不确定性折扣偏好的两个重要边界条件：消费者缺乏对不确定性折扣游戏的名义
控制以及在做折扣采纳决策时感受到时间压力。同时，拟基于价值效用框架揭示名
义控制和时间压力边界效应的发生路径。为此，本文开展了两项实验研究。实验 1
以饭店消费为情景设定，重点考察名义控制和时间压力对不确定性折扣偏好的边
界效应。实验 2则以手机购买为情景设定，重复验证实验 1的研究结论，同时考察
以上两项边界效应的发生路径。
本文研究得到了如下重要结论：第一，当不确定性折扣游戏缺乏名义控制，那
么会对不确定性偏好造成侵蚀效应，即导致消费者对不确定性折扣和确定性折扣
具有相同的偏好；第二，当不确定性折扣含有时间限制而对消费者决策产生时间压
力，那么会对不确定性偏好产生逆转效应，即导致消费者转而偏好确定性折扣；第
三，名义控制和时间压力的边界效应是通过同时影响消费者对折扣的经济价值感
知和情感价值感知而实现的。
本文提出并验证了不确定性折扣偏好的两项边界条件，在一定程度上解释了
营销领域文献和行为经济学领域文献关于不确定性决策偏好的理论争议。同时，研
究结论也为商家的价格促销决策提供了重要的参考。
关键词：价格折扣；不确定性决策；控制错觉；时间压力
西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文
Boundary conditions of consumer preference for uncertain
discount
Specialty: Business administration
Author: Yang Wen
Supervisor: Hu Haihua
ABSTRACT
In recent years, merchants have increasingly used gamified uncertain discount（e.g.
60% off through blind box raffles）to replace traditional certain discount（e.g. 60% off
directly）when promoting goods. Marketing scholars have done a lot of research on
uncertain discount and provided evidence that consumers prefer uncertain discount. In
contrast,thebehavioraleconomicsliteraturefindsthatpeopletendtoavoid
uncertainty. Such theoretical disputes indicate that there may be boundary conditions for
consumers' uncertain discount preferences. However, there is not enough research on this
issue.
To address thistheoretical gap, this paperproposes two important boundary
conditions that influence uncertain discount preference based on relevant theoretical
literature on control illusion and time pressure: consumers' lack of nominal control over
uncertain discount games and consumers' experience of time pressure when making
discount adoption decisions. At the same time, this paper intends to reveal the occurrence
path of nominal control and time pressure boundary effect based on the value utility
framework. To this end, this paper carried out two experimental studies. In experiment
1, we investigated the boundary effects of nominal control and time pressure on uncertain
discount preference. In experiment 2, mobile phone purchase was used as the scenario to
verify the research conclusion of experiment 1 and investigate the occurrence path of the
above two boundary effects.
This study drawsthe following importantconclusions: First, whenuncertain
discount game lacks nominal control, the uncertainty preference will be eroded, that is,
consumers will have the same preference for the uncertainty discount and the certainty
西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文
discount. Second, when uncertaindiscount contains time limit andproduces time
pressure on consumers' decision making, the uncertainty preference will be reversed, that
is, consumers will turn to the certain discount. Third, the boundary effect of nominal
control andtimepressure isachieved bysimultaneously influencingconsumers'
perception of the economic and emotional value of discounts.
In this paper, we propose and verify two boundary conditions of uncertain discount
preference, which to some extent explains the theoretical dispute between marketing
literature and behavioral economics literature on uncertain decision preference. At the
same time, the research conclusion also provides an important reference for merchants to
make price promotion decisions.
Keywords: Price Discount,Uncertain Decision-making, Illusion ofControl, Time
Pressure