Global Trade Outlook
and StatisticsAbout the WTO
The World Trade Organization is the international body dealing
with the global rules of trade between nations. Its main function
is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely
as possible, with a level playing field for all its members.
Embargo
This publication is under embargo until 14.00 Geneva time
on 5 April 2023.
BContents
Key points2
Trade volume growth3
Drivers of trade volume 4
Trade developments in value terms11
Merchandise trade 11
Services trade 11
Other indicators 17
Appendices
Appendix Table 1: 19
Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2022
Appendix Table 2: 20
Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade excluding intra-EU trade,
2022
Appendix Table 3: 21
Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 2022
Appendix Table 4: 22
Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding intra-EU trade, 2022
Appendix Table 5: 23
Leading exporters of digitally delivered services, 2022
1GLOBAL TRADE OUTLOOK AND STATISTICS
Key points
o W orld merchandise trade volume is projected
to grow 1.7% in 2023 before picking up to 3.2%
in 2024.
o Risks to the forecast are tilted to the downside,
including geopolitical tensions, food insecurity,
potential financial instability stemming from
monetary policy tightening, and increasing
levels of debt.
o Trade volume growth in 2022 was slower than
expected at 2.7% following a fourth quarter
slump, but still stronger than worst case
scenarios considered at the start of the war
in Ukraine.
o The value of world merchandise trade rose
12%to US$ 25.3 trillion in 2022, inflated in part
by high global commodity prices.
o The value of world commercial services trade
increased 15% in 2022 to US$ 6.8 trillion.
Digitally delivered services exports were worth
US$ 3.82 trillion in the same year.
2Trade growth to slow to 1.7% in 2023 following
slump in fourth quarter of 2022
The outlook for the global economy has slightly improved since the WTO’s most recent trade forecast
was issued in October of last year but the pace of trade expansion in 2023 is still expected to be subpar,
weighed down by the ongoing war in Ukraine, stubbornly high inflation, tighter monetary policy and
financial uncertainty.
Trade volume growth
WTO economists are now projecting merchandise trade Goods trade was more resilient than expected for most
volume growth of 1.7% in 2023 – up from last October’s of 2022 despite the drag exerted by the war between
estimate of 1.0% – accompanied by real GDP growth Russia and Ukraine. Year-on-year merchandise trade
of 2.4% at market exchange rates (see Chart 1). Growth volume growth averaged 4.2% in the first three quarters
rates for trade and output this year are expected to be of 2022 before a 2.4% quarter-on-quarter decline in
below their respective averages of 2.6% and 2.7% for the fourth quarter dragged growth for the year down
the 12 years since the trade collapse that followed the to 2.7%. The final result for 2022 was weaker than
global financial crisis. the WTO’s October forecast of 3.5% but close to the
earlier estimate of 3.0% from last April, which relied on
Trade growth should rebound to 3.2% in 2024 as GDPsimulations to gauge the economic impact of the war.
growth picks up to 2.6%, but this estimate is more
uncertain than usual due to the presence of substantial A 2.7% increase in trade volume in 2022 is consistent
downside risks, including rising geopolitical tensions, with the WTO’s initial report on the crisis in Ukraine1,
global food insecurity, the possibility of unforeseenwhich estimated that trade growth for the year would
fallouts from monetary tightening, risks to financialfall somewhere between 2.4% and 3.0%. The final
stability and increasing levels of debt. figure ended up being within this range and well
Chart 1: World merchandise trade volume and GDP growth, 2015-2024
Annual % change
10.0 9.4
8.0
5.9
6.0
4.9
4.0 3.1
3.4 3.2 3.3 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.2
2.32.8 2.42.6
2.0 1.4 1.7
0.4
0.0
-2.0
-4.0-3.3
-5.1
-6.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023P 2024P
Merchandise trade volume growth Real GDP growth at market exchange rates
Average trade growth 2010-2022 Average GDP growth 2010-2022
Note: 2023 and 2024 are projections.
Source: WTO for merchandise trade volume and consensus estimates for GDP.
1WTO (2022), The Crisis in Ukraine: Implications of the War for Global Trade and Development, Geneva: WTO.
3