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期：2021年 6月 1日
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日期：2021年 6月 1日
日期：2021年 6月 1日
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摘要
摘要
乳制品行业竞争日益激烈。国外乳制品成本相对低廉，以及曾经的国产乳
制品污染事件为国内乳制品企业带来冲击。大型乳企率先占领了国内市场大量
份额，一些小型乳企因缺乏风险抵御能力退出市场。财务风险贯穿经营活动各
环节，对财务风险有效识别与评价，探究成因积极应对，有利于增强抵御风险
的能力，提高竞争力，以更佳的状态持续发展。
本文以 Y集团为乳企典型案例进行财务风险评价。首先，结合哈佛分析框
架进行多角度财务状况分析，选择 2015-2019年度适合的财务指标，与同行业
内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司（以下简称“伊利”）、光明乳业股份有限公
司（以下简称“光明”）横向对比，与其自身历史数据纵向对比，分别从盈利能
力、营运能力、成长能力、偿债能力以及现金流量状况深入分析 Y集团财务风
险。其次，运用 F分数模型对 Y集团财务风险进行评价，结果在不确定区域需
进一步分析。最后，结合熵值法与功效系数法评价 Y集团 2015-2019年度财务
风险，结果均为轻度或中度风险，总体与前述财务指标分析结论基本一致。
结合上述财务状况分析与财务风险评价结论，本文通过访谈与查阅行业数
据分析 Y集团财务风险成因。投资风险分别从对内投资与对外投资两方面阐述；
营运风险主要从应收账款回收、固定资产使用效率、在建工程历史遗留问题三
方面分析；筹资风险主要体现为长期偿债能力有限，分别从获利、长期负债比
率、现金流量角度分析；现金流量风险分别从经营活动、投资活动、筹资活动
三方面阐述。随后，本文搜集行业信息，针对财务风险成因提出切实可行的防
范措施。
本文写作正值新冠肺炎疫情爆发且尚未结束期间，其中第五章将 Y集团
2020年 1-6月疫情期间财务风险与伊利对比，单独分析。分析发现，两家企业
均出现不同程度的产品滞销、存货积压、应收账款回收速度减缓、短期筹资需
求增加等现象，从而财务风险加剧。相对于 Y集团，伊利具有更好的风险管控
水平与财务状况，在恶性突发事件中凭借较强的风险抵御能力更快恢复，而 Y
集团财务风险受疫情影响相对严重，恢复较缓慢。随后，本文结合 Y集团实际
情况与疫情期间特点提出风险防范措施，为 Y集团抵御疫情期间财务风险提供
参考。
关键词：乳制品集团；财务风险；识别与评价；防范
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Abstract
Abstract
The competition in dairy industry is increasingly fierce. The relatively low cost
of foreign dairy products, as well as the impact of domestic dairy products pollution
incidents, have brought negative effect to domestic dairy enterprises. Large dairy
enterprises take the lead in occupying a large share of the domestic market, and some
small dairy enterprises are gradually eliminated due to the lack of the ability to resist
risks. Financial risks run through all aspects of business activities. Effective
identification and evaluation of financial risks, exploring the causes and actively
coping with them are conducive to enhancing the ability to resist risks, improving
competitiveness and sustainable development in a better state.
Taking Y Group as a typical case of dairy enterprise to evaluate the financial
risk. Firstly, combined with the Harvard analysis framework to analyze the financial
situation from multiple perspectives, the appropriate financial indicators for
2015-2019 are selected to compare with Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.,
Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Yili") and Bright Dairy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter
referred to as "bright") in the same industry, and compares with its own historical
data to analyze the financial risk of Y Group from the aspects of profitability,
operation ability, growth ability, solvency and cash flow. Secondly, F-score model is
used to evaluate the financial risk of Y Group, and the results are in uncertain areas
need to be further analyzed. Finally, combining the entropy method and the efficacy
coefficient method to evaluate the financial risk in 2015-2019, the results are in the
mild or moderate risk level; The overall conclusion is basically consistent with the
result of the above-mentioned financial indicators analysis method.
Combined with the above financial situation analysis and financial risk
evaluation conclusion, this paper analyzes the risk causes of Y Group through
interviews and consulting industry data. Investment risk causes are elaborated from
two aspects of internal investment and external investment; the operational risk is
mainly analyzed from three aspects: the recovery of accounts receivable, the
efficiency of fixed assets, and the unsolved historical problems of construction in
progress; financing risk is mainly reflected in the limited long-term solvency, which
is analyzed from three aspects of profit, long term debt ratio and cash flow; cash
flow risk is analyzed from three aspects: operation, investment and financing. Then,
this paper collects industry information and puts forward feasible preventive
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