I 摘要 区块链技术作为一种新型的生产关系革命性技术而被越来越多的人所了解。 作为一种分布式账本结构，具有去中心化、去信任化、集体维护性和不可篡改性四 大特性。区块链技术的出现能给金融、物流、供应链等领域带来巨大的改变。而预 测市场作为一种20世纪末从美国诞生的新型市场，是用于交易特定合约的市场， 该合约根据不确定的未来事件的结果确定损益，并且现在用于预测各种事件。作为 一种新型市场，预测市场已经在国外应用于政治选举、经济、企业决策、体育、娱 乐、医疗卫生等领域。预测市场目前的应用还处于探索阶段，存在着缺乏系统性的 运行机制和设计的研究、中心化、监管难、可用性差、安全性不高和隐私泄露等问 题。而区块链可有效解决传统预测市场所面临的问题。这给预测市场的发展提供了 良好的机遇。 本文以预测市场平台引入区块链技术为研究对象，选取国内首个区块链预测 市场平台—天算为案例，分别从技术和管理的角度研究了该平台的技术方案和管 理方案，并提出相应的优化措施。技术角度方面，认为天算平台引入区块链技术， 能够解决传统预测市场所面临的中心化、结果操控、面临监管、维护成本高、碎片 化、不灵活和隐私泄露方面的问题。除此之外，本文从管理角度出发，分析出天算 平台目前在产品、产品营销和社区运营上存在问题。并在之后从产品、产品营销和 社区运营三个方面制定了相应的策略。 预测市场本身处于一个发展阶段，尤其是国内对于预测市场的认知还处于初 步介绍阶段，因此，还需要等待时间来验证。通过本文的研究，希望能够为我国以 区块链技术为基础的预测市场的发展提供一定的参考。 关键词：区块链, 预测市场, 天算 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT Blockchain technology is being understood by more and more people as a new revolutionary technology in production relations. As a distributed ledger structure, it has four major characteristics: decentralization, detrust, collective maintenance, and non- tampering. The emergence of blockchain technology can bring huge changes to the fields of finance, logistics, and supply chain. The prediction markets, as a new market born from the United States at the end of the 20th century, is a market for trading specific contracts. The contract determines profit and loss based on the results of uncertain future events, and is now used to predict various events. As a new type of market, the prediction markets has been used in political elections, economy, corporate decision-making, sports, entertainment, medical and health and other fields abroad. The current application of the prediction markets is still in the exploration stage, and there are problems such as lack of systematic operation mechanism and design research, centralization, difficult supervision, poor availability, low security, and privacy leakage. The blockchain can effectively solve the problems faced by the traditional prediction markets. This provides a good opportunity for the development of the prediction markets. This paper takes the introduction of blockchain technology into the platform of prediction markets as the research object, selects the first platform of domestic blockchain prediction markets Deply as a case, studies the technical and management solutions of the platform from a technical and management perspective, and proposes Corresponding optimization measures. From a technical point of view, it is believed that the introduction of blockchain technology on the the platform of Deply can solve the problems of centralization, result manipulation, supervision, high maintenance cost, fragmentation, inflexibility and privacy leakage faced by the traditional prediction market. In addition, from the perspective of management, this paper analyzes the current problems of the platform of Deply in product, product marketing and community operation. And then formulated corresponding strategies from the three aspects of product, product marketing and community operation. The prediction markets itself is in a development stage, especially the domestic understanding of the prediction markets is still in the initial introduction stage. Therefore, it is necessary to wait for time to verify the important role of the prediction markets. ABSTRACT III Through the research in this article, I hope to provide some reference for the development of the prediction markets based on blockchain technology in China. Keywords：Blockchain, Prediction markets, Deply 目 录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景和研究意义 ....................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述 ........................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 预测市场的相关研究 ............................................................................ 2 1.2.2 区块链技术的相关研究 ........................................................................ 5 1.2.3 区块链应用的相关研究 ........................................................................ 6 1.2.4 文献综述总结 ........................................................................................ 8 1.3 研究思路和研究内容 ....................................................................................... 8 1.4 研究方法 ........................................................................................................... 9 1.4.1 案例研究法 ............................................................................................ 9 1.4.2 文献研究法 ............................................................................................ 9 1.4.3 比较分析法 .......................................................................................... 10 1.5 研究特色与创新 ............................................................................................. 10 第二章 预测市场的现状与问题分析 .......................................................................... 11 2.1 预测市场 ......................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 预测市场的概念 .................................................................................. 11 2.1.2 预测市场和传统市场的比较 .............................................................. 11 2.1.3 预测市场运行机制 .............................................................................. 12 2.1.4 预测市场的理论基础 .......................................................................... 13 2.2 预测市场的实际应用 ..................................................................................... 15 2.3 预测市场的问题分析 ..................................................................................... 17 2.3.1 预测市场的准确性质疑 ...................................................................... 17 2.3.2 预测市场缺乏系统性的运行机制和设计的研究 .............................. 18 2.3.3 中心化问题 .......................................................................................... 18 2.3.4 面临监管 .............................................................................................. 18 2.3.5 可用性问题 .......................................................................................... 19 2.3.6 高昂的维护成本 .................................................................................. 19 2.3.7 安全性问题 .......................................................................................... 19 2.3.8 隐私问题 .............................................................................................. 19 2.4 本章小结 ......................................................................................................... 19 目 录 V 第三章 预测市场平台——天算简介 .......................................................................... 21 3.1 天算平台的发展过程 ............................................................................. 21 3.2 天算平台的盈利模式 ............................................................................. 21 3.3 天算平台的融资与代币 ......................................................................... 23 3.4 天算平台在预测市场方面的应用现状 ................................................. 24 3.5 本章小结 ..............