近年来，我国债券市场发展迅速且制度日益完善，债券融资的形式也逐渐被越 来越多的企业所接受。随着2015年新的《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》的发布， 只有上市公司能够采用债券融资的限制条件被废除，进一步将适用范围扩大至所有 性质的公司，这在一定程度上极大得方便了非上市公司的融资，此后，我国债券市 场开始井喷。而在债券发行过程中，证券公司通常承担主承销商的责任，新的债券 发行管理办法中规定主承销商需要承担过错推定责任。而随着债券承“捆绑问责”的 实施，证券公司作为主承销商相比之前将承担更多的责任和风险。这在一定程度上 对证券公司在债券风险管理和风险防范方面提出了更高的要求。 本文在梳理分析了债券承销的具体流程的基础上，采用鱼刺图法和德尔菲法对 证券公司债券承销的风险因素进行识别，最终识别出债券承销业务风险主要体现在 五个方面，即发行人层面、主承销商层面、经济政策层面、第三方机构层面以及特 殊事件层面的风险，并进一步识别出各个层面的关键风险因子，据此基于熵值法的 模糊综合评价方法构建债券承销的风险评价体系。并基于构建的风险评价体系，进 行案例分析，将NJ证券公司的相关数据代入模型，根据最大隶属度原则可知，当 前NJ证券公司债券承销风险总体处于较低的水平，但是风险管理最主要的目的是 最小化消极因素产生的不利影响。因此，本文提出不同的风险控制措施来应对不同 风险，希望以此降低NJ证券公司的债券承销风险及损失，也为提升证券行业的债 券承销风险管理水平提供参考和借鉴。 关键词：债券承销，风险管理，风险控制，模糊综合评价 NJ证券公司债券承销风险评价与防范研究 II ABSTRACT With the rapid development of China's bond market, more and more enterprises choose to issue bonds for financing. In 2015, the new corporate bond issuance and transaction management measures was issued, ending the history that corporate bonds under the supervision of China Securities Regulatory Commission were limited to the issuance and financing of listed companies. The scope of application was extended to almost all companies, providing great convenience for the financing of non-listed companies. Under such circumstances, corporate bonds began to explode. At the same time, as the main underwriter of the securities firm should be presumption of fault liability. Due to the implementation of "bundled accountability" in securities underwriting, the lead underwriter will bear more responsibilities and risks. Therefore, in this case, it is particularly important to effectively avoid the risks of corporate bond issuance, underwriting and payment. This, to a certain extent, puts forward higher requirements for securities companies in bond risk management and risk prevention. Based on the analysis on the basis of the specific process of bond underwriting, bones diagram method and Delphi method is used to bond underwriting of securities company, which can identify the risk factors for ultimately identify bond underwriting business risk is mainly embodied in five aspects, namely, issuers and lead underwriters level, economic policy level, the third party institution level and special events, and to further identify the key risk factors at different levels, on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight method to construct bond underwriting risk evaluation system. Based on the risk evaluation system, case analysis is carried out. By substituting relevant data of NJ securities company into the model, according to the principle of maximum membership, it can be seen that the current bond underwriting risk of NJ securities company is generally at a low level, but risk management should minimize the impact of negative factors, which is a process of continuous improvement. This paper further proposes corresponding risk control measures for risks from different sources, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, in order to reduce the probability of project risk occurrence or loss caused by risk occurrence, so as to put risk control into effect. Keywords: Bond underwriting, risk management, risk control, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation 南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文 III 目录 第一章 绪论 ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ...............................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景 ....................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义 ....................................................................................................2 1.2 国内外研究现状综述 .......................................................................................3 1.2.1国外研究现状 ............................................................................................3 1.2.2国内研究现状 ............................................................................................4 1.2.3 国内外研究现状评述 ...............................................................................6 1.3 研究内容与研究方法 .......................................................................................7 1.3.1 研究内容 ...................................................................................................7 1.3.2研究方法 ....................................................................................................7 1.4研究技术路线........................................................................................................8 第二章 相关理论基础 ...................................................................................................... 9 2.1债券及其承销业务相关理论................................................................................9 2.1.1债券的概念与分类 ....................................................................................9 2.1.3债券承销相关理论 ..................................................................................10 2.2风险及风险管理相关理论..................................................................................11 2.2.1 风险和风险分类 .....................................................................................11 2.2.2 风险管理理论 .........................................................................................12 2.3风险识别、评价与应对方法..............................................................................13 2.3.1风险识别方法 ..........................................................................................13 2.3.2风险评价方法 ..........................................................................................14 2.3.3风险应对方法 ..........................................................................................16 第三章 我国债券承销业务发展状况及问题分析 ........................................................ 17 3.1我国债券市场发展现状......................................................................................17 3.1.1 债券发行规模持续稳健上升 .................................................................17 3.1.2 债券市场逐步实现对外开放 .................................................................17 3.1.3 债券市场成为国民经济重要支撑 .........................................................18 3.1.4 信用风险事件有所增加 .........................................................................19 NJ证券公司债券承销风险评价与防范研究 IV 3.2 国内债券承销业务发展现状.............................................................................19 3.2.1 债券承销及其产品 .................................................................................19 3.2.2 债券承销发展现状及问题 .....................................................................20 第四章 NJ证券公司债券承销业务现状及风险管理分析 ........................................... 23 4.1 NJ 证券公司概况 ............................................................................................23 4.1.1 NJ证券公司基本情况 .............................................................................23 4.1.2 NJ证券公司业绩情况 .............................................................................23 4.2 NJ证券公司债券承销现状 ............................................................