随着全球的商业环境特别是企业外部的竞争趋向于变化更快和 更加恶劣，企业尤其是制造型企业已经不能满足于依靠一年一次的年 度预算和每月的月结来给管理层提供决策的财务数据依据了。本文旨 在通过对N制药公司的内部环境和外部环境以及业务痛点分析，阐 述公司怎样利用超越预算的理念在公司建立起财务预测体系和如何 应用这个体系，从而帮助公司解决实际问题，以及通过公司案例试图 找出一些对于我国企业尤其是制造型企业预算管理的启发。 本文使用N制药公司的真实情况作为主体的案例分析方法，按 照从全面预算理论发展到超越预算理论再衍生到公司财务预测体系 的建立和应用来提出解决公司难点和痛点的财务落地方案，制定出适 合公司目前状况和需求的财务预测体系的逻辑思路和流程及应用研 究。通过本文对案例公司财务预测体系的研究结论，可以对目前制造 型企业有展示作用，将公司各个业务单元整合起来，为企业预判将来 创造更多价值。 关键词：全面预算，超越预算，财务预测体系，财务滚动预测 THE RESEARCH ON BUILD-UP AND APPLICATION OF FINANCIAL FORECAST SYSTEM IN N PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY ABSTRACT The fast changing global business environment which N Pharmaceutical Company is facing now requests the company itself to adapt with the challenges, the new needs to finance for supporting the business to continuous growth is realized by top management. Therefore, derived from the logic of development of Budget theory to Beyond Budget theory, the importance of financial forecast system is realized and applied in the company. This paper aims to explore how N supply point applies the theory and build up as well as implement the financial forecast system as well as the processes and key messages. According to the analysis and summary of this thesis,it shows a example to manufacturing companies how to integrate the business functions via forecast system and create more value to the company for better future estimation. KEY WORDS：Beyond Budget, Financial Forecast System, Rolling Forecast 目 录 第一章 绪论 ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1基本概况 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2研究意义 .................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.3研究目的 .................................................................................................................. 2 1.2 研究思路和内容 ................................................................................................................ 2 1.3 本文的创新点 .................................................................................................................... 3 第二章 文献综述 ............................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 预算管理理论 .................................................................................................................... 4 2.1.1预算管理论研究现状 .............................................................................................. 4 2.1.2预算管理论问题 ...................................................................................................... 5 2.2超越预算理论 ..................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.1取代传统预算的需求 .............................................................................................. 6 2.2.2国外超越预算理论 .................................................................................................. 6 2.2.3国内超越预算理论 .................................................................................................. 7 2.2.4超越预算管理理论总结 .......................................................................................... 8 2.3超越预算理论在企业的应用 ........................................................................................... 10 第三章 N制药公司的背景和问题 ............................................................................................... 11 3.1 案例公司的背景介绍 ...................................................................................................... 11 3.1.1 N制药公司介绍 .................................................................................................... 11 3.1.2公司的主要产品 .................................................................................................... 11 3.1.3 N制药公司组织架构 ............................................................................................ 12 3.1.4公司的供应链流程 ................................................................................................ 12 3.1.5公司的商业模式 .................................................................................................... 13 3.1.6 N制药公司财务部组织架构和职能 .................................................................... 14 3.2 公司业务场景和问题 ...................................................................................................... 14 3.2.1 N制药公司的企业现状与问题分析 .................................................................... 14 3.2.2 N制药公司目前财务体系 .................................................................................... 15 3.2.3 N制药公司财务体系与公司痛点 ........................................................................ 16 3.3 公司应用超越预算理论建立预测体系的动因 .............................................................. 17 第四章 N制药公司财务预测体系的建立和编制方法 ............................................................... 18 4.1 财务预测体系的架构 ...................................................................................................... 18 4.2 财务预测体系的建立和管理原则 .................................................................................. 19 4.3 财务月度滚动预测体系的建立步骤 .............................................................................. 21 4.3.1 构建的系统和工具 ............................................................................................... 21 4.3.2 构建的财务指标 ................................................................................................... 22 4.3.3 参与的业务部门 ................................................................................................... 25 4.3.4 滚动预测模型的模块 ........................................................................................... 28 4.3.5 各个模块的数据流转和流程 ............................................................................... 29 4.4 财务月度滚动预测体系的编制方法 .............................................................................. 41 4.4.1财务滚动预测的数据收集 .................................................................................... 41 4.4.2关键时间节点 ........................................................................................................ 42 4.4.3量的滚动预测 ........................................................................................................ 43 4.4.4 部门费用和外发物流费用的滚动预测 ............................................................... 44 4.4.5 报废的滚动预测 ................................................................................................... 45 4.4.6 材料价差的滚动预测 ........................................................................................... 46 4.4.7营运资本的滚动预测 ............................................................................................ 47 第五章 财务预测体系的应用研究 ............................................................................................... 48 5.1 财务预测体系的应用 ...................................................................................................... 48 5.1.1财务滚动预测的应用 ....................................................................