当前，我国航空业正处于快速发展阶段。中国的民航机场数量已从 1978 年的 78 个 增加到目前的 238 个，平均每 100,000 平方公里有 2.4 个机场，每百万人口有 0.17 个机 场，占我国人口的 86.25％，占 GDP 的 91.13％。形成了以“以北京，上海，广州等国 际枢纽机场为中心，以省会和重点城市的区域枢纽机场为骨干，与其他干线和支线机场 相协调”的机场格局。在整个民航业发展过程中，工程建设占据企业投资的很大部分， 如何提高施工效率，保证工程进度，降低风险显得尤为重要。但从整体来看，我国对机 场建设类的大型工程项目的风险管理还不完善，尚未形成成熟完整的管理体系。所以， 提前做好工程项目的风险防控研究，其中包含风险识别、风险评估、风险应对策略是十 分必要的。 本文对 XT 机场改扩建工程项目的风险管理进行研究，论述了该项目的风险管理过 程，包括风险识别、风险评估、风险分析和风险应对策略。结合国内外研究现状，提出 XT 机场改扩建工程项目风险管理的意义和必要性，以现行国家、地方、行业法律法规 为依据，通过现场踏勘、查阅资料、公示、问卷调查等多种调查方式，识别出 XT 机场 改扩建工程项目风险因素主要包括工期风险、安全风险、管理技术风险、环境风险和经 济风险，并运用层次分析法建立了 XT 机场改扩建工程项目的风险评价递阶层次模型， 对 XT 机场改扩建工程项目中识别出其关键的风险因素进行评估，解决了 XT 机场改扩 建工程项目风险评估的定量问题。最后，基于 XT 机场改扩建工程项目的风险识别和风 险评估，运用风险管理的相关知识依据实际情况，提出切实有效的风险应对策略。 关键字：机场改扩建工程项目；风险管理；应对策略；层次分析法II ABSTRACT In recent years,China’s aviation industry is developing rapidly.The number of civil aviation airports in China has increased from 78 in 1978 to 238 at present,with an average of 2.4 airports per 100000 square kilometers and 0.17 airports per million population,covering 86.25% of China’s population and 91.13% of GDP producing areas.An airport structure with Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and other international hub airports as the center,regional hub airports in provincial capitals and key cities as the backbone,and other trunk and branch airports cooperating with each other has been preliminarily formed.In the whole development process of civil aviation industry,engineering construction accounts for a large part of enterprise investment,how to improve the construction efficiency,ensure the progress of the project,reduce the risk is particularly important.Therefore,it is very necessary to carry out the risk prevention and control research of engineering projects in advance,including risk identification,risk assessment and risk response. This paper studies and discusses the risk management of XT airport reconstruction and expansion project,and discusses the risk management process of the project:risk identification,risk assessment,risk analysis and risk response strategybined with domestic and foreign research present situation,put forward the XT airport reconstruction project the significance and necessity of risk management,with the current national and local laws and regulations,industry as the basis,through the site,access to information ,public,questionnaire to investigate a variety of ways,to identify the XT airport reconstruction project risk factors respectively,time limit for a project risk,security risk,management,technology risk,environment risk and economic risk,using the analytic hierarchy process to establish the XT airport reconstruction project risk assessment model class times,identified in the XT airport reconstruction project to evaluate the key risk factors,The quantification problem of risk assessment of XT airport reconstruction and expansion project is solved.Finally,on the basis of risk identification and risk assessment of XT airport reconstruction and expansion project,this paper puts forward feasible risk coping strategies based on the actual situation by using relevant knowledge of risk management.While maintaining the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people,we should ensure the smooth implementation of the project. KEY WORDS:Airport reconstruction and expansion project; Risk management; Risk coping strategies; Analytic hierarchy process目 录 摘要..........................................................................................................................................I Abstract.......................................................................................................................................................II 第一章 绪论.........................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景..........................................................................................................................1 1.2 研究的目的和意义..........................................................................................................................2 1.3 国内外研究现状...............................................................................................................................4 1.3.1 国外研究现状.......................................................................................................................4 1.3.2 国内研究现状.......................................................................................................................5 1.3.3 文献评述 6 1.4 研究思路与方法...............................................................................................................................6 1.4.1 研究思路................................................................................................................................6 1.4.2 研究方法................................................................................................................................7 1.5 研究内容 8 1.6 创新之处 9 第二章 相关理论基础及概述.........................................................................................................10 2.1 风险管理概述................................................................................................................10 2.1.1 风险概述..............................................................................................................................10 2.1.2 风险管理............................................................................................................. 11 2.1.3 风险管理的发展简介.......................................................................................................11 2.2 风险管理的内容.............................................................................................................................12 2.2.1 风险识别..............................................................................................................................12 2.2.2 风险评估..............................................................................................................................13 2.2.3 风险应对..............................................................................................................................14 2.3 层次分析法（AHP）....................................................................................................................15 第三章 XT 机场改扩建工程项目风险识别................................................................................19 3.1 XT 机场改扩建工程项目概况....................................................................................................19 3.1.1 项目建设的必要性............................................................................................................19 3.1.2 项目概况..............................................................................................................................19 3.1.3 项目风险分析意义 20 3.2 XT 机场改扩建工程项目风险识别过程..................................................................................20 3.2.1 机场改扩建工程项目调查范围.....................................................................................20 3.2.2 机场改扩建工程项目调查的方式和方法..................................................................202 3.3 XT 机场改扩建工程项目风险识别结果.....................