I 摘要 随着5G等新技术的兴起，广电传媒行业也迎来了发展的又一个黄金时期。 国家也出台了该行业在新技术背景下的创新发展指导意见等政策，期望通过政策 扶持来带动广电传媒行业的发展。因此，以JSCN公司为代表的广电传媒行业企 业有着诸多发展机遇。但是，我们还应该看到，目前虽然在利好的背景下，广电 传媒行业的公司仍然存在着各种各样的问题，产业和服务的转型升级过程中面临 着不小的压力，这种问题体现在企业经营业绩中，最终反映在各公司的财务状况 上。 本文以JSCN公司为研究对象，在介绍完广电行业现状之后，分别从筹资、 投资、经营和收益分配四个方面对JSCN的财务现状进行了分析，发现其现金流、 应收账款和存货等财务指标存在财务风险问题，并对风险产生的原因进行归纳。 本文还运用了企业财务风险预警模型——Z-Score模型对JSCN公司进行Z值诊 断并检测其适用性，并结合广电传媒行业公司的财务特点对其进行模型的修正， 使得修正后该模型能更加适用于该行业。在文章的最后，对JSCN财务问题的现 状和应重点注意的财务指标进行针对性的改进建议，并提出了相应的保障措施。 适用于JSCN公司的修正版Z模型和针对财务风险的改进建议也会为同行业的企 业财务风险预警提供参考，具有一定的现实意义。 关键词：广电传媒行业；JSCN公司；风险预警；Z-Score模型 Abstract II Abstract Withtheriseofnewtechnologiessuchas5G,theradioandtelevisionmedia industryhasalsousheredinanothergoldenperiodofdevelopment.Thestatehasalso issuedpoliciessuchasguidanceonthedevelopmentofinnovationanddevelopment inthecontextofnewtechnologiesintheindustry,hopingtopromotethedevelopment oftheradioandtelevisionmediaindustrythroughpolicysupport.Therefore,JSCNas therepresentativeoftheradioandtelevisionmediaindustryenterpriseshavealotof developmentopportunities.However,weshouldalsoseethat,althoughinthepositive background,theradioandtelevisionmediaindustrycompaniesstillhaveavarietyof problems,industryandservicesintheprocessoftransformationandupgradingis facingconsiderablepressure,thisproblemisreflectedintheperformanceof enterprises,andultimatelyreflectedinthefinancialsituationofcompanies. Inthispaper,JSCNcompanyastheresearchobject,afterintroducingthecurrent situationoftheradioandtelevisionindustry,fromthefinancing,investment, operationandincomedistributionfouraspectsofJSCN'sfinancialstatusanalysis, foundthatitscashflow,accountsreceivableandinventoryandotherfinancial indicatorstherearefinancialriskproblems,andthecausesofrisk.Thispaperalso usestheenterprisefinancialriskearlywarningmodel-Z-ScoremodeltoJSCN companyZ-valuediagnosisandtestitsapplicability,andcombinedwiththefinancial characteristicsoftheradioandtelevisionmediaindustrycompaniestomodifyits model,sothattherevisedmodelcanbemoresuitablefortheindustry.Attheendof thearticle,thecurrentsituationofJSCN'sfinancialproblemsandthefinancial indicatorsthatshouldbepaidattentiontoareproposedforimprovement,andthe correspondingsafeguardmeasuresareputforward.TherevisedZmodelandthe suggestionofimprovingfinancialriskforJSCNcompanywillalsoprovidereference forthefinancialriskwarningofenterprisesinthesameindustry,whichisofpractical significance. Keywords:RadioandTelevisionMediaIndustry;JSCN;RiskAlert;Z-ScoreModel. 目录 III 目录 摘要................................................................................................................................I Abstract..........................................................................................................................II 第1章绪论..................................................................................................................1 1.1选题的背景和意义..........................................................................................1 1.1.1选题背景..............................................................................................1 1.1.2理论意义..............................................................................................2 1.1.3现实意义..............................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究现状及总结.................................................................................4 1.2.1国内研究现状......................................................................................4 1.2.2国外研究现状......................................................................................6 1.2.3研究现状综述......................................................................................7 1.3研究内容与研究方法.....................................................................................8 1.3.1研究内容..............................................................................................8 1.3.2研究方法..............................................................................................8 1.3.3技术路线..............................................................................................9 1.4创新与不足...................................................................................................11 1.4.1创新点................................................................................................11 1.4.2不足之处............................................................................................11 第2章财务风险预警概念及理论综述....................................................................12 2.1财务风险的概念及财务风险的成因...........................................................12 2.1.1财务风险的概念.................................................................................12 2.1.2财务风险的分类................................................................................12 2.2财务风险预警概念及作用............................................................................13 2.2.1财务风险预警的概念.........................................................................13 2.2.2财务风险预警的作用.........................................................................13 2.3财务风险预警相关模型...............................................................................14 2.3.1单变量模型.........................................................................................14 2.3.2多变量模型........................................................................................14 2.3.3Z-Score模型.......................................................................................14 2.4本章小结........................................................................................................15 第3章广电传媒行业发展现状分析........................................................................16 目录 IV 3.1广电传媒行业企业主营业务及盈利模式....................................................16 3.1.1广电传媒行业定义............................................................................16 3.1.2广电传媒行业企业主营业务............................................................16 3.1.3广电传媒行业企业盈利模式............................................................16 3.2.广电传媒行业发展现状与问题..................................................................17 3.2.1广电传媒行业发展现状....................................................................17 3.2.2广电传媒行业发展中存在的问题....................................................18 3.2.3广电传媒行业财务风险的成因........................................................18 3.3本章小结........................................................................................................19 第4章JSCN公司财务现状及问题分析...................................................................20 4.1JSCN公司基本情况及财务现状.................................................................20 4.1.1JSCN公司简介..................................................................................20 4.1.2JSCN公司发展现状..........................................................................20 4.1.3JSCN公司财务预警管理现状..........................................................22 4.2JSCN公司财务现状分析.............................................................................23 4.2.1筹资活动分析.....................................................................................23 4.2.2投资活动分析.............................................