I 摘要 十年前，G公司开始了自主燃机的开发工作。其中，燃机叶片的设计及制造 技术属于燃机关键核心技术之一。但G公司既缺乏相关技术储备和经验积累，又 面临国际技术封锁和碍于国内相似行业的保密性，只能依靠自主技术创新。为此， G公司启动了燃机叶片新产品开发项目，要求在规定的时间内完成叶片的设计及 制造技术开发并生产出叶片产品以配套G公司自主开发的重型燃气轮机。燃机叶 片新产品开发项目具有专业性强、技术难度大、研发周期长、费用高、质量要求 高、协作性强、交货期短等特点，再加上其他复杂的各种因素，使得项目风险很 高。因此，有必要运用项目风险管理相关理论，有效识别和评估燃机叶片新产品 开发项目风险，提出相应的风险控制措施，达到减轻项目风险，完成项目预期目 标的目的。 燃机叶片新产品开发项目沿用了G公司普通科研项目的管理模式，但这种模 式并不适用于燃机叶片这种全新的新产品开发项目。项目管理模式的不匹配和项 目成员的风险意识不足都给项目带来了风险。为此，我们首先通过培训提高项目 成员的项目风险意识。再运用项目风险管理相关理论，从“项目实施的不同阶段” 和“项目要素”两个方面对该项目的风险进行了识别及分析，对影响项目的风险 因素进行了评估和筛选，最后针对性提出了风险控制措施，减小了风险因素对项 目的影响，最终达到管控项目、实现项目预期目标的目的。 通过本文研究，找到了一套适用于G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目风险管理 的工作方法、手段和措施，有利于确保该项目的顺利进行，对G公司的日常科研 和生产项目也具有重要指导借鉴意义，也给其他从事相似新产品开发工作的企业 提供了参考意见。 关键词：燃机叶片，新产品开发，项目风险管理 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT G-company started to develop its own gas turbine ten years ago. Among those technology, the design and manufacturing technology of gas turbine blades is one of the key technologies. Due to the lack of relevant technical reserves and experience accumulation, as well as the international technology blockade and the confidentiality hindering the domestic similar industries, G-company can only rely on independent technological innovation. For this reason, G-company started the new product development project of gas turbine blades. It is required to complete the blade design and manufacturing technology development on time and produce blade products for the heavy gas turbine independently developed by G-company. The new product development project of gas turbine blades has the characteristics of strong specialization, high technical difficulty, long research and development cycle, high cost, high quality requirements, strong cooperation, short delivery period, etc. In addition to other complex factors, the project risk is very high. Therefore, it is necessary to use the theory of project risk management to effectively identify and evaluate the risk of new product development project of gas turbine blades, and put forward risk control measures and suggestions to reduce the project risk to achieve the expected goal of the project. The new product development project of gas turbine blade follows the management mode of general scientific research project of G-company, but this mode is not suitable for the new product development project of gas turbine blade. The mismatch of project management mode and the lack of risk awareness of project members bring risks to the project. To this end, we improve project risk awareness of project members through training firstly. Then, identifies and analyzes the risk of the project from two aspects include "different stages of project implementation" and "four elements of the project" using the relevant theory of project risk management, evaluates and selects the risk factors that affect the project, and finally puts forward the risk control measures and suggestions to reduce the impact of risk factors on the project, so as to achieve the goal of project control and implementation. Through the research of this paper, a set of working methods, means and measures for risk management of new product development project of turbine blades of G-company is found, which is conducive to ensure the smooth progress of the project, ABSTRACT III has important guiding significance for daily scientific research and production projects of G-company, and provides reference for other enterprises engaged in similar new product development. Keywords: Blade of Gas Turbine, New product development, Project risk management 目 录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................ 1 1.2 研究目的 ............................................................................................................ 2 1.3 研究思路及论文框架 ........................................................................................ 3 第二章 文献综述 ............................................................................................................ 4 2.1 新产品开发理论 ................................................................................................ 4 2.1.1 新产品开发的概念 ................................................................................ 4 2.1.2 新产品开发的分类 ................................................................................ 4 2.2 项目管理理论 .................................................................................................... 5 2.2.1 项目管理的定义 .................................................................................... 5 2.2.2 项目管理的内容 .................................................................................... 5 2.3 新产品开发项目理论 ........................................................................................ 7 2.3.1 新产品开发项目的特点 ........................................................................ 7 2.3.2 科研项目管理 ........................................................................................ 8 2.3.3 生产项目管理 ........................................................................................ 9 2.4 项目风险管理理论 .......................................................................................... 10 2.4.1 项目风险及管理 .................................................................................. 10 2.4.2 项目风险管理过程 .............................................................................. 10 2.5 新产品开发项目风险管理 .............................................................................. 12 2.5.1 新产品开发项目风险管理的特点 ...................................................... 12 2.5.2 新产品开发项目风险的类别 .............................................................. 13 2.5.3 项目风险管理对新产品开发的意义 .................................................. 14 2.6 相关文献述评 .................................................................................................. 14 第三章 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目管理概况 .................................................. 16 3.1 G公司基本情况 .............................................................................................. 16 3.2 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目介绍 .......................................................... 16 3.2.1 G公司自主燃机项目整体介绍 ........................................................... 16 3.2.2 G公司燃机叶片项目的介绍 ............................................................... 17 3.3 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目管理现状 .................................................. 19 3.4 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目风险管理现状 .......................................... 22 目 录 V 第四章 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目风险识别与评估 ...................................... 24 4.1 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目风险识别与评估方法 .............................. 24 4.2 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目风险的识别 .............................................. 24 4.2.1 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目按项目实施阶段进行风险识别 ... 24 4.2.2 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目按风险因素进行风险识别 ........... 30 4.3 G公司燃机叶片新产品开发项目风险的评估 .............................................. 32 4.3.1 项目风险评估方法 ...