在知识经济和信息时代的背景下，科技和经济越来越呈现出相互依存，相互 渗透的一体化发展趋势。因此，科技型企业也越来越成为我国经济社会发展的中 流砥柱。但同时，伴随地却是科技型企业因高投入和高风险而频频发生财务危机， 企业倒闭的新闻数见不鲜。企业陷入财务危机的过程是缓慢演变的，只要能抓住 征兆，提早诊断和防范，就很有可能规避财务风险，将企业导入正轨。这就使科 技型企业迫切地需要施行一套高效准确的财务危机预警机制，以化解可能存在的 风险隐患，也让科技型企业的财务危机预警研究具有重要的现实意义。 本文将最初应用于生物医学领域的生存分析法引入了科技型企业的财务危机 预警研究中，采用理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法，综述了财务危机预警和生 存分析领域的研究现状和理论基础，并对科技型企业的特点和危机来源进行了分 析。选取2000-2018年在沪深两市主板上市的科技型企业作为样本，综合考虑财务 状况、公司治理、创新能力等指标，构建科技型企业财务危机预警的指标体系。 然后通过显著性检验、相关性检验、比例风险假设检验等对初选的指标进行筛选， 构建生存分析的Cox比例风险模型，找出科技型企业生存概率随时间变化的规律 及其关键性的影响因素。 本文得到的结论如下：（1）现金流动负债比、营业利润增长率、董事会会议 次数、流通股比例、研发投入总额可以降低财务风险，是保护因子；产权比率、 国有股比例会增加发生财务危机的概率，是危险因子。(2) 生存函数图可以测算企 业可能发生财务危机的时点和概率，从中得到生存时间为70个月和150个月时是 企业最应着重警惕的时刻。(3) 模型综合预测精度达到85.4%，相较于Logistic模 型的预测结果更具有优越性。最后，基于实证结果，为科技型企业财务危机预警 提出针对性的防控建议及策略。 关键词：财务危机预警；生存分析；Cox比例风险模型；科技型企业 II Abstract Under the background of knowledge economy and information age, science and technology and economy are increasingly interdependent and permeated with each other. Therefore, technology-based enterprises have more and more become the mainstay of China's economic and social development. However, at the same time, due to high investment and high risk, technology-based enterprises frequently suffer financial crisis, and the news of enterprise bankruptcy is common. But at the same time, the process of the company's financial crisis is slowly evolving. As long as you can grasp the signs, diagnose and prevent early, it is likely to avoid financial risks and lead the enterprise into the right track. This makes the science and technology enterprises urgently need to implement a set of efficient and accurate financial early warning mechanism, in order to dissolve the potential risks, and also makes the financial early warning research of science and technology enterprises has important practical significance. This thesis introduces the basic theory of survival analysis into the financial early warning research of science and technology enterprises. By adopting the method of combination of theory and empirical research, this thesis reviews the research status and theoretical basis in the field of financial early warning and survival analysis, and analyzes the characteristics and financial risk sources of science and technology enterprises. Then selecting the technology-based enterprises listed on the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Markets in 2000-2018 as samples. Taking financial status, corporate governance, innovation ability and other indicators into comprehensive consideration, the index system for early warning of financial crisis in science and technology enterprises is constructed. Then, screening the primary indicators through significance test, correlation test, proportional risk hypothesis test, etc., the Cox proportional risk model of survival analysis is constructed to find out the law of survival probability changing with time and its key influencing factors. The conclusions of this thesis are as follows:(1) the cash flow debt ratio, the growth rate of operating profits, the number of board meetings, the proportion of outstanding shares and the total investment in R&D can reduce the financial risk and are the protective factors. The property right ratio and the proportion of state-owned shares will increase the probability of financial crisis, which are risk factors. (2) The survival III function chart can calculate the timing and probability of possible financial crisis of the enterprises, from which it can be seen that the survival time of 70 and 150 months are the moments when the enterprises should focus on vigilance. (3) The comprehensive prediction accuracy of the model can reach 85.4%. Compared with Logistic model, the prediction results are more advantageous. Finally, based on the empirical results, this thesis puts forward suggestions and strategies for the prevention and control of the financial crisis early warning of technology-based enterprises. Key words: Financial early warning; Survival analysis; Cox proportional hazards model; Scientific and technological enterprises IV 目 录 摘要 ................................................................................................................................... I Abstract .............................................................................................................................II 第1章 绪论 ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ................................................................................................. 1 1.2 国内外研究现状 ................................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 财务危机的界定 ....................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 财务危机预警指标的研究 ...................................................................... 3 1.2.3 财务危机预警的研究方法 ...................................................................... 4 1.2.4 生存分析研究综述................................................................................... 5 1.2.5 国内外研究述评 ....................................................................................... 6 1.3 研究方法和研究内容 ......................................................................................... 7 1.3.1 研究方法 ................................................................................................... 7 1.3.2 研究内容 ................................................................................................... 8 1.3.3 技术路线图 ............................................................................................... 9 第2章 相关理论及方法概述 ....................................................................................... 10 2.1 财务危机预警相关理论 ................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 风险管理理论 ......................................................................................... 10 2.1.2 内部控制理论 ......................................................................................... 11 2.1.3 企业生命周期理论................................................................................. 11 2.2 生存分析相关理论 ........................................................................................... 12 2.2.1 生存分析的概念 ..................................................................................... 12 2.2.2 生存时间及数据类型 ............................................................................ 13 2.2.3 生存分析基本函数................................................................................. 13 2.2.4 生存分析统计方法................................................................................. 14 2.3 Cox比例风险模型 ............................................................................................ 15 2.3.1 模型基本形式 ......................................................................................... 15 2.3.2 参数估计 ................................................................................................. 16 V 2.3.3 前提假设 ........................................................................................