在国内房地产建设保持高速发展的十余年以来，越来越多的高层建筑也随之 出现在人们视野当中，而对于施工企业，工程项目管理难度有了成倍增长。当前， 由于建筑工程项目具有风险高，投入大，周期长等特性，在工程实施过程中，如 何应对项目风险尤其是项目质量风险，已经成为各大建筑施工企业关注的重点。 企业项目质量风险管理，是企业管理的主要内容。可以说企业项目能否保质保量 地实施直接关系到企业能否稳定持续的生存与发展。如何管理项目质量风险，减 少质量风险出现的概率，一直是企业的研究热点，也是本文的研究重点。 本文总体介绍了有关施工企业项目质量风险管理的研究背景以及研究意义， 指出了在当前施工企业面临大量施工项目的情况下，其抗风险能力与质量风险管 理水平均不高的现状。随后介绍了国内外施工项目相关的风险，对国内相关风险 管理理论的发展历程进行了梳理与总结，从质量活动、风险、质量风险管理的概 念，风险管理的识别，评估与判定等理论入手，对施工项目质量风险管理所需的 理论支撑进行了进一步的总结和归纳。在此基础上，以ESY集团H项目为研究对 象，按照PDCA循环思想，从项目质量风险的识别、估计、评价到控制为一个闭 环过程，结合贝叶斯网络模型构建，通过计算与分析，对项目可能遇到的各种风 险进行判断，并得出关影响项目总质量风险落在矩阵R2范围内，概率为0.427， 有一定的风险，需采取措施，并加以监测。随后对施工企业实施工程项目的质量 风险进行了控制研究，探索了施工企业管理项目质量风险的有效途径与措施，在 项目风险管理的基础上对企业的质量风险控制制度提出改善建议，并对未来发展 进行了展望。 通过对质量风险管理与分析，给出了质量风险管理过程中的主要识别方法以 及应对思路，提出了施工企业进行类似项目质量风险的应对措施以及管理方式， 为施工企业面对项目质量风险管理提供了参考意见。 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 关键词：施工企业；质量风险管理；贝叶斯网络模型 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 ResearchonESYEnterpriseProjectQualityRisk Management Specialty:BusinessAdministration Name:FuXiaoNa Instructor:AssociateProfessorWeiHaimin Abstract Formorethantenyearswhendomesticrealestateconstructionhasmaintained rapiddevelopment,moreandmorehigh-risebuildingshavealsoappearedinpeople's vision,andforconstructionenterprises,thedifficultyofprojectmanagementhas increasedexponentially.Atpresent,duetothecharacteristicsofhighrisk,large investmentandlongcycletimeinconstructionprojects,howtodealwithprojectrisks, especiallyprojectqualityrisks,hasbecomethefocusofmajorconstructioncompanies intheprocessofprojectimplementation.Enterpriseprojectqualityriskmanagementis themaincontentofenterprisemanagement.Itcanbesaidthatwhetheranenterprise projectcanbeimplementedwithqualityandquantityisdirectlyrelatedtowhetherthe enterprisecansurviveanddevelopsteadilyandcontinuously.Howtomanageproject qualityrisksandreducetheprobabilityofqualityriskshasalwaysbeenaresearch hotspotforenterprises,anditisalsothefocusofthisarticle. Thisarticlegivesageneralintroductiontotheresearchbackgroundand significanceofprojectqualityriskmanagementforconstructioncompanies,andpoints outthatthecurrentlevelofanti-riskcapabilityandqualityriskmanagementisnothigh whenconstructioncompaniesarefacingalargenumberofconstructionprojects.Then introducedtherisksrelatedtoconstructionprojectsathomeandabroad,combedand summarizedthedevelopmentofdomesticrelatedriskmanagementtheories,andstarted withtheconceptsofqualityactivities,risks,andqualityriskmanagement,andtheories ofriskmanagementidentification,evaluation,andjudgment.Thetheoreticalsupport requiredforconstructionprojectqualityriskmanagementisfurthersummarizedand 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 summarized.Onthisbasis,takingtheHYprojectoftheESYGroupastheresearch object,andinaccordancewiththePDCAcycleidea,fromtheidentification,estimation, evaluation,andcontrolofprojectqualityrisktoaclosed-loopprocess,combinedwith theBayesiannetworkmodel,throughcalculationandanalysis,Variousrisksthatthe projectmayencounterarejudged,andtheprobabilityrelatedtothetotalqualityriskof theprojectis0.427.Thequalityriskofconstructionprojectsimplementedby constructioncompanieswasevaluatedandresearched.Theeffectivewaysandmeasures forconstructioncompaniestomanageprojectqualityriskswereexplored.Onthebasis ofprojectriskmanagement,suggestionsweremadeforimprovementofthecompany's qualityriskcontrolsystem.Thefuturedevelopmentisprospected. Throughthequalityriskmanagementandanalysis,themainidentificationmethods andresponsemeasuresintheprocessofqualityriskmanagementareverified,andthe responsemeasuresandmanagementmethodsofsimilarprojectqualityriskfor constructionenterprisesareproposed,whicheffectivelyverifiestherelevant managementtheoriesoffoundationpitprojectqualityriskforconstructionenterprises. Keywords:Constructionenterprises;QualityRiskmanagement;Bayesiannetwork model 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 I 目录 1绪论.......................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景.....................................................................................................1 1.2研究目的与意义........................................................................................2 1.2.1研究目的.........................................................................................2 1.2.2研究意义.........................................................................................3 1.3国内外质量风险管理研究现状................................................................3 1.3.1国内质量风险管理研究现状.........................................................3 1.3.2国外质量风险管理研究现状.........................................................6 1.4主要研究方法与路线................................................................................9 1.4.1研究内容.........................................................................................9 1.4.2主要研究方法...............................................................................10 1.4.3研究路线.......................................................................................10 2企业项目质量风险相关理论..............................................................................13 2.1质量与风险概述.......................................................................................13 2.1.1质量活动........................................................................................13 2.1.2风险概念........................................................................................13 2.2质量风险概述..........................................................................................14 2.2.1质量风险定义...............................................................................14 2.2.2质量风险分类...............................................................................15 2.2.3质量风险特征...............................................................................15 2.3质量风险管理理论..................................................................................16 2.3.1质量风险识别...............................................................................16 2.3.2质量风险分析与评估...................................................................18 2.3.3质量风险控制...............................................................................19 2.4本章小结..................................................................................................20 3ESY企业及H项目概况.....................................................................................21 3.1ESY企业介绍...........................................................................................21 3.1.1ESY企业简介................................................................................21 3.1.2ESY企业组织机构........................................................................21 西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文 II 3.1.3ESY企业质量风险管理办法........................................................22 3.2H项目介绍...............................................................................................24 3.2.1H项目基本信息............................................................................24 3.2.2H项目水文地质情况....................................................................25 3.2.3H项目现场组织架构...................................