项目类别、SPV结构与基础设施PPP项目成效——基于非洲 PPP项目数据的实证分析 摘要 1994年以来，非洲经济高速增长，城市化进程速度快，对基础设施建设有大量、 急迫的需求。然而非洲工业化尚在起步阶段，非洲政府普遍面临严重的资金和技术短 缺，基础设施的建设与城市扩张严重不同步。PPP项目作为解决非洲资金难题的重要 手段在非洲得到广泛应用，然而其失败率也不容忽视，非洲PPP项目只有17%成功 达到运营阶段，某些特殊类别的PPP项目的撤销率竟然高达28%。研究清楚影响PPP 项目成败的因素对非洲的基础设施建设、经济发展、政府和公众利益有深远重大的意 义。 本文在现有研究的基础上，根据笔者多年的非洲工程经验，从工程项目角度出发， 从内部风险中选择了项目类别和SPV结构二个变量。项目类别和SPV结构是与工程 项目本身紧密相关的变量，是投资人在进行项目投资、可行性分析、招投标、项目建 设、运营时必须重点关注和讨论的因素。不同于一般的项目类型，本文按照项目可用 性、效用和首要收入来源三个维度将PPP项目类别划分为用户付费型、经济效益型 和社会效益型三种类别。用户付费型PPP项目是指直接跟消费者交易并靠消费者付 费收回投资的具有经济效益的PPP项目，经济效益型PPP项目是指间接跟消费者交 易并靠政府或其直属机构付费收回投资的具有经济效益的PPP项目，社会效益型PPP 项目是指间接跟消费者产生交易并靠政府财政付款收回投资的具有社会效益的PPP 项目。不同类别的项目之间不是同质的，对不同风险的敏感程度也不同。SPV的结构 是PPP项目参与方可以事前谈判商定和灵活控制、改变的，对于提高PPP项目成功 概率更有实践和操作意义。SPV结构又具体分为私人投资者出资比例、SPV的管理 控制权、向政府付费、私人投资者数量和国际金融机构参与五个变量。本文选择了宏 观因素作为控制变量，具体分为政治因素、GDP及增长率、人均GDP及增长率、对 外资开放程度、对非金融实体投资力度、现有基础设施条件。 根据前人的研究和工程管理的经验，本文分别针对项目类别和SPV结构提出研 究假设，并从世界银行统计的非洲PPP项目数据的PPI数据库中选取了129个有效数 据，采用Logit模型对项目类别和SPV结构二个变量对PPP项目成效的影响进行实 证分析，并分别使用替换部分控制变量的方法和对子样本进行回归检验的方法对 Logit模型进行稳健性检验。回归结果表明本文的实证分析具有稳健性，并得出结论 和分析如下：（1）用户付费型PPP项目偏向于完全市场化的商业合作，受投资环境、 商业环境、市场需求等影响大，不确定性最高，因此更容易失败。经济效益型PPP 摘要 项目偏向于半市场化的项目合作，对政府或其直属机构的付款能力和信用依赖程度大， 因此成功或失败的概率不确定。社会效益型PPP项目具有高度的政治目的和社会公 益性，各种政策保障力度最大，且收入来源于稳定可靠的政府财政支出，因此更容易 成功。（2）SPV的结构对PPP项目的成效有显著影响。综合而言，私人投资者出资 比例越高，风险分担机制越失衡，项目越容易失败。SPV由私人投资者掌握管理控制 权时，可以充分利用其专业的技术和管理经验，项目越容易成功。政府向参与PPP 项目开发的私人投资者收取开发费用时，显示SPV各方没有有效地结成利益共同体， 政府对SPV的承诺不足，项目越容易失败。SPV中国际金融机构的参与对不同项目 类型的影响不同，用户付费型PPP项目中政府的出资比例较大，国际金融机构提供 的低息贷款可以缓解SPV的资金压力，项目越容易成功。经济效益型PPP项目中， 国际金融机构以提供担保为主，反而容易滋生腐败，项目越容易失败。 中国的“一带一路”国策惠及非洲，中国企业参与非洲建设和发展的模型将从工 程承包向投资运营转变。本文的实证研究结论，对私人投资者有较高的实操性和指导 意义，本文建议私人投资者应根据自身的技术、资金和在工程所在国的发展规划选择 要投资的PPP项目类别，积极与政府沟通协商，加强政府在SPV中的承诺，寻找SPV 的出资比例与管理控制权的平衡点和最优的融资策略。 关键词： PPP成效，非洲基础设施，项目类别，SPV结构，Logit ABSTRACT Project Category, SPV and Infrastructure PPP Project Effectiveness: An Empirical Analysis Based on African PPP Project Data ABSTRACT Since 1994, Africa has witnessed rapid economic growth, rapid urbanization and a large and urgent demand for infrastructure. However, Africa's industrialization is still in its infancy, and African governments are generally facing serious financial and technological shortages. Infrastructure construction is seriously out of step with urban expansion. PPP projects have been widely used in Africa as an important means to solve the financial problems in Africa. However, the failure rate of PPP projects in Africa can not be ignored. Only 17% of African PPP projects have successfully reached the operational stage, and the cancellation rate of some special types of PPP projects is as high as 28%. It is of far-reaching significance for Africa's infrastructure construction, economic development, government and public interests to study the factors that affect the success or failure of PPP projects. On the basis of the existing research, according to the author's many years of African engineering experience, from the perspective of Engineering projects, this paper chooses two variables, project category and SPV, from the internal risk. Project category and SPV are closely related variables to the project itself. They are the factors that investors must pay attention to and discuss in project investment, feasibility analysis, bidding, project construction and operation. Different from general project types, this paper classifies PPP project categories into three categories: user-paid type, economic benefit type and social benefit type according to the three dimensions of project availability, utility and primary income source. User-paid PPP project refers to the economic benefit PPP project which directly trades with consumers and recovers investment by consumers’ payment. Economic benefit PPP project refers to the economic benefit PPP project which trades with consumers indirectly and recovers investment by government or its affiliated institutions. Social benefit PPP project refers to indirect investment. A socially beneficial PPP project that deals with consumers and recovers investment through government financial payments. Different types of projects are not homogeneous and sensitive to different risks. The structure of SPV is that PPP project participants can negotiate and negotiate beforehand and flexibly control and change. It is more practical and operational to improve the ABSTRACT probability of PPP project success. The structure of SPV can be divided into five variables: the proportion of private investors, the management control of SPV, the payment to the government, the number of private investors and the participation of international financial institutions. This paper chooses macro factors as control variables, which are specifically divided into political factors, GDP and growth rate, per capita GDP and growth rate, openness to foreign investment, investment in non-financial entities, and existing infrastructure conditions. Based on previous research and project management experience, this paper proposes research hypotheses for project categories and SPV respectively, and selects 129 valid data from the PPI database of African PPP project data collected by the World Bank. Logit model is used to empirically analyze the impact of project categories and SPV variables on PPP project effectiveness. The robustness of Logit model is tested by replacing part of the control variables and regression test of sub-samples. The regression results show that the empirical analysis of this paper is robust, and the conclusions and analysis are as follows: (1) User-paid PPP projects tend to fully market-oriented business cooperation, which is greatly affected by the investment environment, business environment, market demand and other factors, with the highest uncertainty, so it is easier to fail. Economic-benefit PPP projects tend to be semi-market-oriented project cooperation, and depend heavily on the payment ability and credit of the government or its affiliated institutions, so the probability of success or failure is uncertain. The social benefit PPP project has a high degree of political purpose and social public welfare, and various policies guarantee the most, and the source of income comes from stable and reliable government financial expenditure, so it is easier to succeed. (2) SPV institutions have a significant impact on the effectiveness of PPP projects. Generally speaking, the higher the proportion of private investors, the more unbalanced the risk-sharing mechanism