随着“十三五”规划的出台以及《中国制造2025》等相关政策的颁布，国家为了改善 环境，提高效益，对产业绿色创新、低碳创新的重视程度逐步提 高。船舶工业作为我国 的国防科技产业，无疑被列为重点关注的产业，船舶工业进行绿色创新逐渐成为国家引 导船舶工业健康发展的重要途径。船舶工业绿色创新的发展，一方 面可以节约大量的资 源，另一方面船舶工业作为高污染、高消耗产品，它的绿色创新对于改善环境、提高生 态效益有着巨大的作用。因此，本文通过构建我国船舶工业绿色创新 系统，确定影响我 国船舶工业绿色创新系统动态演化的主要驱动因素，并探讨我国船舶工业绿色创新系统 动态演化趋势，对于促进我国船舶工业绿色创新系统的有序发展具有重 要的意义。 首先，本文对我国船舶工业以及绿色创新系统的相关概念进行解析，并通过分析我 国船舶工业绿色创新系统的内涵与特征，分析系统的创新环境，确定我国船舶工业 绿色 创新系统的构成要素，基本结构与功能，构建出我国船舶工业绿色创新系统。同时对我 国船舶工业绿色创新系统的动态演化条件进行了相应的解析，为下文分析我国船舶工 业 绿色创新系统的动态演化提供相应的理论基础。 其次，从绿色船舶市场拉动，绿色船舶技术推动以及绿色船舶政府管制三个方面解 释了我国船舶工业绿色创新系统动态演化的 驱动因素，并通过对这三个驱动因素进行计 算，借助哈肯模型，对我国船舶工业绿色创新系统动态演化的驱动因素进行实证研究， 进而识别出我国船舶工业绿色创新系统动态演 化的主要驱动因素。 再次，是对我国船舶工业绿色创新系统动态演化路径的研究。通过运用系统动力学 的相关理论，对我国船舶工业绿色创新系统的系统动力学特征进行分析， 构建了我国船 舶工业绿色创新系统动态演化路径的因果关系图和系统流图，确定了我国船舶工业绿色 创新系统的动态演化路径，并对模型中的关键变量进行验证，预估出这些关 键变量未来 发展的趋势，从而明确我国船舶工业绿色创新系统未来的发展趋势。 最后，通过结合前文对我国船舶工业绿色创新系统动态演化的研究，分别从市场需 求、技术进步 、政府管制出发，提出促进我国船舶工业绿色创新系统动态有序演化的具 体对策建议，进而推动我国船舶工业绿色创新系统的动态有序演化。 关键词：船舶工业；绿色创新系统 ；动态演化；哈肯模型；系统动力学 Abstract With the promulgation of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" and related policies such as "Made in China 2025", the state has gradually increased its emphasis on industrial green innovation and low-carbon innovation in order to improve the environment and increase efficiency, As China's national defense technology industry, shipbuilding industry is undoubtedly listed as a key concern，green innovation in the shipbuilding industry has gradually become an important way for the country to guide the healthy development of the shipbuilding industry. The development of green innovation in the shipbuilding industry can save a lot of resources on the one hand, and the shipbuilding industry on the other hand. High-pollution, high-consumption products, and its green innovation have a huge effect on improving the environment and improving ecological benefits. Therefore, this paper builds a green innovation system for China's shipbuilding industry ，the main driving factors affecting the dynamic evolution of the green innovation system in China's shipbuilding industry are determined and explores the dynamic evolution direction of China's shipbuilding industry's green innovation system to promote China. The orderly development of the green innovation system for shipbuilding industry has important significance. First of all, this article analyzes the related concepts of China's shipbuilding industry and green innovation system, and analyzes the connotation and characteristics of China's shipbuilding industry's green innovation system, analyzes the system's innovation environment, and determines the constituent elements of China's shipbuilding industry's green innovation system. The basic structure and function of China's shipbuilding industry's green innovation system is to build a green innovation system for China's shipbuilding industry. At the same time, the dynamic evolution conditions of the green innovation system in China's shipbuilding industry are analyzed, and the corresponding theoretical basis is provided for the analysis of the dynamic evolution of the green innovation system in China's shipbuilding industry. Secondly, the driving factors of the dynamic evolution of the green innovation system in China's shipbuilding industry are explained from three main aspects, which are green ship market, green ship technology progress and green ship government regulation, and the results of these three driving factors are calculated, and the green innovation of China's shipbuilding industry is made with the help of the Haken model. The driving factors of the dynamic evolution of the system are empirically studied, and then the main driving factors for the dynamic evolution of China's shipbuilding green innovation system are identified. Thirdly, it is a study of the dynamic evolution path of China's shipbuilding industry green innovation system. By using the related theory of system dynamics, the system dynamics characteristics of the green innovation system in China's shipbuilding industry are analyzed, the causality diagram and the system flow chart of the dynamic evolutionary path of the marine industry green innovation system in China are constructed, and the dynamic evolution path of the green innovation system in China's shipbuilding industry is determined. The key variables in the model are verified, and the future trends of these key variables are predicted, thus the future development direction of the green innovation system in China's shipbuilding industry is clarified. Finally, by combining the previous research on the dynamic evolution of China's shipbuilding industry's green innovation system, from the perspectives of market demand, technological progress, and government regulations, we propose specific countermeasures and suggestions to promote the dynamic and orderly evolution of China's shipbuilding industry's green innovation system. And then promote the dynamic and orderly evolution of China's shipbuilding industry green innovation system. Keywords: Shipbuilding industry; Green innovation system; Dynamic evolution; Haken model； System dynamics 目 录 第1章 绪论 .. 1 1.1 研究背景 ............................ 1 1.2 研究目的及意义 ................ 2 1.2.1 研究目的 ..................... 2 1.2.2 研究意义 ..................... 2 1.3 国内外研究现状及评述 .... 3 1.3.1 国外研究现状 ............. 4 1.3.2 国内研究现状 ............. 6 1.3.3 国内外研究现状评述 . 8 1.4 论文的研究内容和研究方 法 ........................... 9 1.4.1 研究内容 ..................... 9 1.4.2 研究方法 ................... 11 1.5论文创新之处 ................... 11 第2章 我 国船舶工业绿色创新系统及动态演化理论解析 ................. 13 2.1 船舶工业的概述 .............. 13 2.1.1 船舶工业的概念 ....... 13 2.1.2 船舶工业的特征 ....... 13 2.2 绿色创新系统的概述 ...... 14 2.2.1 绿色创新系统的界定 .............................. 14 2.2.2 绿色创新系统的功能 .............................. 14 2.3 我国船舶工业绿色创新系统的构建 ............. 15 2.3.1 我国船舶工业绿色创新系统的内涵与特征 ......................... 15 2.3.2 我国船舶工业绿色创新系统的创新环境 ............................. 16 2.3.3 我国船舶工业绿色创新系统的构成要素 ............................. 17 2.3.4 我 国船舶工业绿色创新系统的基本结构 ............................. 20 2.4 我国船舶工业绿色创新系统的功能 ............. 21 2.4.1 可持续发展功能 ....... 21 2.4.2 经济发展功能 ........... 21 2.4.3 创新与扩散功能 ....... 21 2.5 我国船舶工业绿色创新系统动态演化条件 . 22 2.5.1 开放性 ....................... 22 2.5.2 远离 平衡态 ............... 22 2.5.3 非线性 ....................... 23 2.5.4 随机涨落 ................... 23 2.6 本章小结 .......................... 24 第3章 我国 船舶工业绿色创新系统动态演化驱动因素研究 ............. 25 3.1 哈肯模型的概述 .............. 25 3.1.1 绝热近似原理 ........... 25 3.1.2 序参量演化