地方政府融资平台在经济危机期间对经济稳增长起到了积极的作用，但由于过度融资，超 出自身的承受能力，其债务问题也逐步暴露。自2010年上半 年以来，国务院、银监会等相关主 管部门相继出台通知，规范融资平台自身建设和平台贷款的管理，防范和化解财务风险，促进 和引导地方政府融资平台的稳健转型和发展。 地 方政府融资平台的财务风险既关系到国家的经济稳定，也关系到区域性金融风险的控制 与防范。对地方政府融资平台的财务风险进行评价能为国家监管机构制定监管政策提供相关 理 论与实证分析依据，有利于地方政府融资平台对潜在的财务风险进行防范、加快转型速度，进 而提高地方政府融资平台的整体竞争力，促进地区经济增长。因此，本文在借鉴 国内外现有研 究成果的基础上，针对已有研究的不足，在对财务风险和地方政府融资平台的相关理论进行概 述后，分析地方政府融资平台的行业现状，并以江苏新海连发展集团 有限公司为例，分析其业 务与经营模式，进行SWOT分析；最后通过财务报表分析法、F分数模型法对新海连集团进行 财务风险评价，归纳总结新海连集团存在的财务风险。评价结 果显示，江苏新海连发展集团有 限公司目前不存在整体性的财务风险，能够继续生存，但一些潜在财务风险不容忽视。公司长 期偿债能力较弱，在投资能力上对政府性项目依赖 较大，企业的经营效益增长缓慢；经营性现 金流、投资性现金流状况较差；公司承担的地方公益项目较多，盈利能力偏弱，缺乏可持续发 展能力。本文最后提出了针对新海连集 团化解潜在财务风险的防范措施，该系列防范措施对于 其它地方政府融资平台同样具有借鉴与应用价值。 关键词：地方政府融资平台；财务风险；F分数模型；防范措施 新海连 集团财务风险评价研究 II Abstract Local government financing platforms played a positive role in stabilizing economic growth during the economic crisis, but their debt problems were gradually exposed due to excessive financing beyond their capacity. Since the first half of 2010, the state council, China banking regulatory commission and other relevant departments have issued notices to regulate the construction of financing platforms and the management of platform loans, prevent and resolve financial risks, and promote and guide the steady transformation and development of local government financing platforms. The financial risk of local government financing platforms is not only related to the country's economic stability, but also related to the control and prevention of regional financial risk. To evaluate the financial risk of the local government financing platform for national regulators regulatory policy to provide relevant theory and empirical analysis basis, is advantageous to the local government financing platform to prevent potential financial risk, speed up the transformation, and improve the overall competitiveness of local government financing platform, promote regional economic growth. Therefore, this article on the basis of existing research results at home and abroad for reference, and aiming at the shortcomings of the existing research, on the relevant theories of financial risk and the local government financing platform are summarized, after analyzing the industry of the local government financing platform, and in jiangsu new sea even development group co., LTD., for example, to analyze its business and business model, the SWOT analysis. At last, the financial risk of xinhai company was evaluated through the analysis of financial statements and the f-score model method, and the financial risks of xinhai company were summarized. The evaluation results show that jiangsu xinhailian development group co., ltd. does not have overall financial risks at present and can continue to survive, but some potential financial risks cannot be ignored. The company is weak in long-term debt paying ability, relies on the government project greatly in investment ability, and the business efficiency of the company grows slowly. Operating cash flow and investment cash flow are in poor condition. The company undertakes many local public welfare projects with weak profitability and lack of sustainable development capacity. At the end of this paper, the preventive measures for solving the potential financial risks of xinhai Lilian group are proposed, which also have reference and application value for other local government financing platforms. Key Words: Local Government Financing Platform; Financial Risk;F-Score Model; Precautions 南京航空航天大学硕 士学位论文 III 目 录 第一章 绪论 .......................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1选题的背景和 意义 ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1研究的背景 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2研究的意义 .................................................................................................................... 2 1.2文献综述 .................................................................................................................................. 2 1.2.1政府融资平台相关理 论研究 ........................................................................................ 2 1.2.2企业财务风险相关理论研究 ........................................................................................ 5 1.2.3文献述 评........................................................................................................................ 6 1.3 研究内容和方 法...................................................................................................................... 7 1.3.1研究内 容........................................................................................................................ 7 1.3.2研究方 法........................................................................................................................ 8 1.4技术路线图 .............................................................................................................................. 8 第二章 相关概述及理论基础 ............................................................................................................... 9 2.1 财务风险的相关概述 .............................................................................................................. 9 2.1.1财务风险的含义 ............................................................................................................ 9 2.1.2财务风险的分类 ............................................................................................................ 9 2.2 财务风险评价的方法 ............................................................................................................ 10 2.2.1报表分析法 .................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.2指标分析法 .................................................................................................................. 10 2.2.3模型分析法 .................................................................................................................. 10 2.3地方政府融资平台理论 ......................................................................................................... 12 2.3.1地方政府融资平台的概念 .......................................................................................... 12 2.3.2地方政府融资平台的分类 .......................................................................................... 12 2.3.3地方政府融资平台面临的主要财务风险 .................................................................. 13 2.4本文研究的理论基础 ............................................................................................................. 14 2.4.1委托代理理论 .............................................................................................................. 14 2.4.2权衡理 论...................................................................................................................... 15 2.4.3政府失灵与公权力制约理论