项目可行性研究是项目生命周期的前瞻性工作和重要组成部分，研究抽水蓄能电站 建设的必要性和可行性对当今“节能减排”的贡献及对电网的安全可靠运行具有重大的 现实意义。 本文以现代项目管理理论为基础，通过区域经济现状调查和电力发展情况，分析了 石厂坝抽水蓄能电站项目建设的必要性和紧迫性；以大量的数据为依据，从项目环境条 件、施工情况、方案比选、投资估算和经济评价等着手，系统地进行了可行性研究。提 出了建设适当比例的抽水蓄能电站是必要的和可行的基本结论，构建了电网安全结构体 系。本文的研究结果对电网的结构调整和抽水蓄能电站项目的评估有一定的借鉴作用。 关键词，抽水蓄能电站，可行性研究，经济评价 ABSTRACT The project feasibility study is the project life cycle forward-looking work and the important constituent, the necessity and the feasibility of studying pumped storage power station has the fateful practical significance for saving the energy, reducing pollution emissions nowadays and the electrical network security reliable movement. This article takes the modern project management theory as a foundation, analyzed the necessity and urgency of Shi Changba pumped storage power station‘s project construction through the region economical present situation investigation and the electric power development situation. It takes the massive data as the basis which begins with the project environmental condition, the construction situation, the plan compared to chooses, the investment estimate and the economic evaluation, has conducted the feasibility study systematically. It proposed the basic conclusion that building up suitable proportion of pumped storage power station is essential and the feasible, and has constructed the electrical network safety mechanism system. This article findings has certain model function for the electrical network structure adjustment and the pumped storage power station project appraisal. Xuxiangyang (Master of Business Administration) Directed by prof. Wu yunna KEY WORDS: Pumped-storage hydroelectric stations, The feasibility study, Economic evaluation华北电力大学工商管理硕士专业学位报告 II 目 录 中文摘要 英文摘要 第一章 引 言 .......................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 选题背景及其意义 ............................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 报告选题的背景 ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 报告研究的目的和意义 .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 国内外发展动态和启示 ....................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 国外发展动态和启示 .............................................................................................. 2 1.2.2 国内发展现状和前景 ............................................................................................. 3 1.3 课题研究的主要内容和基本框架 ........................................................................ 4 1.3.1 主要内容 ................................................................................................................... 4 1.3.2 基本框架 ................................................................................................................... 5 第二章 项目必要性分析 .......................................................................................................... 6 2.1 项目类似案例 ....................................................................................................... 6 2.1.1 国外抽水蓄能电站比例分析 ................................................................................. 6 2.1.2 我国已投运的抽水蓄能电站的作用 ..................................................................... 6 2.2 供电地区社会经济和能源资源状况分析 ............................................................. 7 2.2.1 贵州省社会经济概况 .............................................................................................. 7 2.2.2 贵州省能源资源概况 .............................................................................................. 9 2.3 贵州省电力系统现状 ......................................................................................... 10 2.3.1 电源现状 ................................................................................................................. 10 2.3.2 电网现状 ................................................................................................................. 10 2.3.3 电网运行存在的主要问题 ................................................................................... 11 2.4 贵州省电力市场空间分析 .................................................................................. 12 2.4.1 电力市场分析 ........................................................................................................ 12 2.4.2 电力盈亏平衡分析 ................................................................................................ 12 2.4.3 调峰容量平衡分析 ................................................................................................ 13 2.5 项目建设必要性 ................................................................................................. 14 2.5.1 贵州省经济发展和电力快速增长的需要 .......................................................... 14 2.5.2 顺利实施“西电东送”工程的需要 ................................................................... 15 2.5.3 满足贵州电网削峰填谷的需要 ........................................................................... 16 2.5.4 利于优化系统电源结构，提高系统经济性 ...................................................... 16华北电力大学工商管理硕士专业学位报告 III 2.5.5 保护环境，促进社会经济可持续发展的需要 .................................................. 17 2.5.6 猫跳河“流域、梯级、滚动、综合”发展的需要 ......................................... 17 第三章 项目可行性分析 ........................................................................................................ 19 3.1 边际原则理论的运用 ......................................................................................... 19 3.1.1 经济学中关于边际原则的定义 .............................................................................. 19 3.1.2 边际原则应用于抽水蓄能电站 .............................................................................. 19 3.2 建设条件分析 ..................................................................................................... 20 3.2.1 上、下库条件分析 ................................................................................................ 20 3.2.2 水文条件 ................................................................................................................. 21 3.2.2.1 径流 ....................................................................................................... 21 3.2.2.2 洪水 ....................................................................................................... 21 3.2.3 贵州电力市场环境 ................................................................................................ 21 3.2.4 水利与动能分析 .................................................................................................... 23 3.3 电力电量平衡分析 ............................................................................................. 24 3.3.1 贵州电网负荷预测 ................................................................................................ 24 3.3.2 贵州电力外送分析 ............................................................................................... 25 3.3.3 负荷特性分析 ....................................................................................................... 26 3.3.4 平衡原则 ................................................................................................................. 27 3.3.4.1 供电范围 ................................................................................................ 27 3.3.4.2 抽水蓄能运行方式 ..................