摘要 本文以上雜生态《光园项目经浦亍注为謝捕阅读、市场 丽、觀議、经济撤示分析、鹏定性分析,棚谁页目经耐撤分析施雕 赫上鎌屯态光园项目的经耐撤體_正。 首先,阐述了了本文的研究背景与意义,国内外相关研^见状,主要的研究内容和方法 以及仓衞点。 其次,对可行性分析理论和经啊撤分析方翻亍了鍵,主要介绍了可撤職的 理论出、投资方案的比较和选择方法(净现值法)、项目经济效益分析方法以及不确定分析 mm,为报告的实证分析奠定了理论細。 第三,对淮前上窑镇生态农业观光园项目进行了项目简介和市场预测。运用市场丽、 市场预测等方法确定了门票及单位游客消费额、日环境容量以及未来营运期内游客数量,通过 分析得出在符合环境容量的前提下,淮肺上雜生态农业观光项目未来游客数量可观,论证 了窗页目具^^的市场成长性,市场潜力巨大。 第四,对淮南市上g镇生态农业观光园项目进行经济可行注分析。先是是采用净现值法 在项目多施随中驗了最筋案,确定了建傲鹏。然后对营业费用进行了 估算。接着通过计算项目的投资利润率、静态与动态投资回收期以及财务内部收益率的等经 济指标对项目经济效》行分析,得出该项目经济效^显著。最后是运用盈亏平衡分析和敏 感注分析方法对项目进行不确定分析,找到了该!页目的游客数量盈亏平衡点和主要敏感因素, 并得出加强市场运作,提高营运能力是提高该项目经济效益的途径。 第五’介绍了项目风险和防范策略,从定性分析的角度分析了淮前上奋镇生态农业观 光园项目风险因素的识别、主要经营风险以及应对风险的防范措施,并提出了防舰施从而 提高福目抵御风险的能力。 雖難论,舰市疆测、族的比较和勝、经游溢分析、《定分析以舰险 分析和保章措施等多方面进行系统的分析和论证,得出了淮南市上窑镇生态农业观光园项目 市场潜力巨大、投资夫搬維、经滋著.具有一定抵御风险的能九因此顧s經 济上是可行的的。 图M表[9] 参[47] mm:生态经耐撤;净现齡析;聽性分析;m I Abstract Abstract This paper, taking Agricultural Sightseeing Paik of Shangyao Town in Huainan as the research subjects, analyzes and demonstrates the economic feasibility of the project, using the method of project economic feasibility analysis by reading through the literature,market research, data collection, analj^is of economic indicators and qualitative risk analysis. First of all, it describes the background and significance of this paper, related research at home and abroad, the main research content, methods, and innovatioa Secondly, it analyzes Ihe theoretical feasibility and economic viability analysis of the sort, introduces the theoretical foundation of feasibility study, corrparison and selection method of investment scheme (NPV)project economic analysis and uncertainty analysis methods, empirical analysis of papers laid the theoretical foundatioa Third, it introduces the project description of Agricultural Sightseeing Paik of Shangyao Town, determines Ihe amount of tickets and tourist spending units and dialing environmental c^>acity and the number of visitors during the operating period by market research and maiket forecasts and Analyzes the results tiiat Agricultural Sightseeing Paik of Shangyao Town in Huainan projects has demonstrated good market growth, huge maiket potential v^hen tiie number of tourists coming under the premise of compliance witii environmental capacity. Fourth, the article analyzes the economic viability of the project first ,it selects the best solution is the use of multiple programs by NPV method and determine the scale of construction of the project Then it estimates the revenue and costs .Then it calculates profit by investing in the project, as well as static and dynamic investment recovery period, financial internal rate of return and other economic indicators to analyze the economic benefits of the project, results of the project with significant economic benefits. Finally, the use of breakeven analysis and sensitivity analysis methods for uncertainty analysis of the project, &e number of tourists helps to find the breakeven point for the project and tiie main sensitivities, and come to conclusion that strengthen the operation of the maiket and improve the operational capacity of flie project an important way s to improve the economic efficiency. Fiffli, it describes the project risks and prevention strategies, and analyze the recognition of project risk fectors, the main business risks and preventive measures from the perspective of qualitative analysis,and also proposed some measures to in^jrove the ability of resisting risks. hi 安镦理工大学硕士学位报告 Finally, Ihe paper comes to tihe conclvisiQD, fte prqect of agricultural Si^itsedng Padc of Shangyao Town in Huaman has a great market potoitial, rational investmait scale, agpificant economic benefits and a certain ability to resist risk^ so tbe project is ecQDomically viable. Figure [4] table [9] reference [47] K^Words: Eco-tourism; ecaoomic feasibility; NPV analysds; sensitivity analyas; ri^c IV 目录 目录 摘要 J Abstract IQ 1 ■ 1 1.1 1 1.1.1 輸 amt 1 1.12 纖 1 12国内夕阳陶卿t 2 12.1 .2 122 国内的 3 13職内容及方& 4 1.3.1雜的内容 .4 132 5 1.4職辦鍾 6 2 7 2.1 m i 2.1.1 wimmwm 7 2.12可行性^的阶段 7 22投资旗的比较 8 22.1 s 222投资旗的1法 8 223 8 23投资项目经^^析旅 10 2.3.1投资项目效益与财费用的體 10 232经游溢分析方 10 233 mmm-m 11 2.4投资项目的棚定性分折 13 2.4.1 13 2.42 分析 14 3项目椒况及市场葡a 17 3.1项巨瓶 17 3.1.1项巨所在地区简介 17 V 安徽理工大学硕士学位报告 3.12项目建设背景 18 3.13项目建^』 19 3.1.4项百建设的政策保障 20 3.1.5项百建设的意义 21 32项目市场预测 ..........22 32.1门票及单碰舗费Mil 22 322日环境容量预测 22 32.3 22 4项目经啊撤分析 25 4.1项目方案的确走 25 4.1.1备选方案介绍 25 4.12投资@的确定 26 42投资与搬费用纖 27 42.1 27 412效益费用傭 30 43 31 43.1投资糊率 31 432投资回棚 32 433财务内部收益率(FIRR) 34 4.4 定分析 34 4.4.1 34 4.42敏感性分析 35 5项目顺与防纖施 37 5.1 赠因 37 52 37 53风脸防離施 38 6结论 41