自闭症是人类正在着力攻克的难题。目前中国自闭症患者高达 1000 万，其中 0 到 14 岁的儿童患者远超 200 万。按国内 200 万自闭症儿童，每年人均消费提升至 4 万元推 算，预计 2027 年，自闭症教育康复市场规模将达 800 亿元。千余家的服务机构，与多 达 200 万自闭症儿童之间仍存在巨大的供给缺口。 基于巨大的市场空间、我国政府对自闭症儿童的政策与资金扶持，AA 创业团队立 志要在广州市成立一家民办非企业、专门针对 0-6 岁自闭症儿童的教育康复训练中心。 本项目的课程产品独具特色，针对广州市 0-6 岁自闭症儿童的特点，采用教育加康复的 训练模式；师资雄厚，整合特殊教育、心理咨询、儿童精神病和自闭症早期干预等领域 的专家，组建一个专业的教育康复团队；本项目对服务对象采用低偿、象征性收费方式， 在价格上更具有竞争优势。 本文按照商业计划书的框架来撰写，结合管理理论知识并借助模型工具对自闭 症儿童教育康复行业进行深入分析，运用 PEST 模型对广州地区 0-6 岁自闭症儿童教育 康复市场的外部环境与内部环境进行深入分析对比，得出本项目在广州市 0-6 岁自闭症 儿童教育康复市场中的可得份额为 2%；借助 SWOT 模型分析并确定成立本中心的竞争 优势与 STP，进而确定本中心的营销策略（4P）；最后，进行财务分析并编制相关财务 报表，评估财务风险，并提出相关问题的解决对策。最终得出结论，本项目符合国家大 力扶持自闭症教育康复事业的政策，市场前景广阔，能让广大自闭症儿童及家庭受益； 本项目可行性高且具有较大的投资价值与社会意义，值得投资。 关键词，自闭症儿童 教育康复训练 商业计划书II ABSTRACT Autism is a difficult problem that human beings are trying to overcome. At present, the number of autistic patients in China is as high as 10 million. Among them, more than 2 million children aged 0 to 14 are sick. According to 2 million autistic children in China and estimation of per capita consumption rising to 40,000 yuan per year, autism education and rehabilitation market will reach 80 billion yuan in 2027. There is still a huge supply gap between thousands of service providers and up to 2 million autistic children. Based on the huge market space, and the Government's Policy and Financial Support for Autistic Children, The AA entrepreneurship team is determined to set up a private non-enterprise and education and rehabilitation training renter in Guangzhou for Autistic Children Aged 0-6. The course product of this project has its own characteristics. According to the characteristics of autistic children aged 0-6 in Guangzhou, the training mode of education plus rehabilitation was adopted. We have brilliant teachers, and we are integrating specialists in special education, psychological counseling, early intervention in childhood psychosis and autism to form a professional education and rehabilitation team. This project adopts the low-paid and symbolic charging method for the service object, which has more competitive advantage in price. This paper is based on the framework of the business plan paper, combined with the knowledge of management theory and model tools to conduct in-depth analysis of the education and rehabilitation industry for autistic children. The PEST model is used to analyze and compare the external environment and internal environment of the education and rehabilitation market for autistic children aged 0-6 in Guangzhou. It is concluded that the share of this project in the education and rehabilitation market for autistic children aged 0-6 in Guangzhou is 2%. With the help of SWOT model analysis, the competitive advantage and STP of the center are determined, and then the marketing strategy (4P) of the center is determined. Finally, the financial analysis and preparation of relevant financial statements to assess financial risks, and propose solutions to related problems. Finally, it comes to the conclusion that: This project is in line with the national policy of vigorously supporting the cause of autism education and rehabilitation. It has broad market prospect. It can benefit the majority of autistic children and families. This project has high feasibility and great investment value and social significance. The project is worth investing. Keywords: Autistic Child Educational Rehabilitation Training Business planIII 目 录 摘要.I ABSTRACT II 图表清单...VII 第一章 绪论1 1.1 研究的背景及意义.. 1 1.1.1 研究背景. 1 1.1.2 研究意义. 1 1.2 文献综述.. 1 1.2.1 自闭症..... 1 1.2.2 自闭症儿童教育康复训练方法. 2 1.2.3 商业计划书编写. 3 1.2.4 战略管理理论..... 3 1.2.5 现代市场营销理论... 4 1.3 研究目标及内容.. 5 1.3.1 研究目标. 5 1.3.2 研究内容. 5 1.4 研究方法及框架 5 1.4.1 研究方法. 5 1.4.2 框架. 6 第二章 市场分析....7 2.1 宏观环境分析 7 2.1.1 政治环境（Political Factors）... 7 2.1.2 经济环境（Economic Factors） 7 2.1.3 社会文化环境（Social and Cultural Factors） . 8 2.1.4 技术环境（Technological Factors） ..... 9 2.2 行业竞争结构分析.... 9 2.2.1 行业新进入者分析. 10 2.2.2 替代品的威胁... 10IV 2.2.3 教育康复专业人才分析..... 11 2.2.4 服务对象分析... 11 2.2.5 行业发展趋势分析. 12 2.3 市场环境分析.... 13 2.3.1 市场潜量分析... 13 2.3.2 项目可得份额... 14 2.3.3 消费者行为分析..... 17 2.4 SWOT 分析 .. 19 2.4.1 优势（Strength） ... 21 2.4.2 劣势（Weakness） . 22 2.4.3 机会（Opportunity） ... 22 2.4.4 威胁（Threat） 23 2.5 本章小结 24 第三章 项目规划..25 3.1 项目简介与创业团队.... 25 3.1.1 项目简介..... 25 3.1.2 创业团队..... 26 3.2 项目发展战略规划.. 27 3.2.1 业务规划..... 28 3.2.2 投融资规划. 29 3.3 运营方案 30 3.3.1 组织架构..... 30 3.3.2 人员配备..... 31 3.3.3 员工培训与团队建设制度. 31 3.3.4 绩效考核与激励制度... 32 3.3.5 项目运营过程... 33 3.4 公司选址 33 3.5 退出机制 34 3.6 本章小结 35 第四章 市场营销策略36V 4.1 现代市场营销理论.. 36 4.1.1 细分市场..... 36 4.1.2 目标市场选择... 36 4.1.3 市场定位..... 37 4.2 营销组合策略.... 38 4.2.1 产品策略..... 38 4.2.2 价格策略..... 42 4.2.3 渠道策略..... 44 4.2.4 促销策略..... 45 4.3 项目品牌运营.... 46 4.4 本章小结 46 第五章 财务分析..47 5.1 盈利分析 47 5.1.1 资金来源及使用预算分析. 47 5.1.2 项目未来三年收入预测..... 48 5.1.3 中心经营成本预算. 50 5.1.4 费用预算..... 53 5.2 损益估算预测与现金流估算预测.. 54 5.2.1 项目 1-3 年损益估算预测.. 54 5.2.2 现金流估算预测..... 55 5.3 本章小结 55 第六章 风险与对策分析..57 6.1 政策风险及应对 57 6.2 竞争风险及应对 58 6.3 人力资源风险及应对.... 58 6.4 财务风险及应对 60 6.5 本章小结 60 结 论....61