本文以创办未来城幼儿园的内外部环境、市场营销策略、人力资源规划与管理、 财务分析与经营预测、风险分析与应对策略为研究对象，并运用文献研究法、比较分 析法等方法进行分析比对，是为了解决创办未来城幼儿园可行性这一关键问题，为园 所的创办与发展提供理论基础和指导依据。本文以幼儿园的创办为出发点，以商业计 划书的编制为框架，结合战略、营销、人力资源、财务、风险等管理理论，运用战略 与营销工具进行分析，确认未来城幼儿园的创办符合市场需求，能够迅速占领市场， 稳健成长并收回投资，保障资金安全。通过对国家相关政策的解读、对行业外部现状 趋势，以及内部环境进行分析，发掘潜力与需求。 第四次婴儿潮、稳定增长的出生率、完全二孩政策，为我国的早教市场增添了活 力。幼儿园增长低于出生率，供需不平衡，客户需求强烈，市场潜力巨大。本文通过 对文献的学习与研究，系统梳理了大量的管理理论和分析工具，加强了本次研究的合 理性和研究结果的可信度，分析创业现状，理清创业思路，制定营销和管理的策略与 目标，并把营销目标带进财务预测，验证可行性，加强了投资的意愿与信心，点燃了 创业实践的热情。 本文的研究路径是：首先简单概述项目情况，为后续分析提供必要信息与资料； 接着介绍市场环境和行业背景，并用波特五力分析模型和 SWOT 模型进行行业与竞争 分析，初步预测项目的可行性并确定项目的发展战略。然后，通过对市场的判断、竞 争者的比对以及对目标客户需求的分析，确定了项目定位和营销目标。在此基础之上， 用 4P 理论指导营销管理分析，形成销售促销策略，并制定了促销原则、策略与计划。 接着，在幼儿园管理方面，根据营销目标，对企业的岗位及数量进行分析与确定，以 保证达成目标。之后，对于财务分析与规划，通过对企业成本、销售和利润的预测和 综合分析，进行企业经营的预测。五年内收回投资成本并获得盈利的财务预测验证了 项目的可行性。投资有风险，要时刻关注并识别，进行系统细致的分析，发现问题， 提早预防，及时解决，增加财务稳健度。同时，完善的退出机制也可以增强投资者的 意愿。 最后，自然而然地得出结论：政策倾向好，市场潜力大，客户需求强烈明确，项 目回报丰厚，富有成长性，极具投资价值，可及时入市，占领市场，取得竞争先机。 关键词：幼儿园，幼儿教育，商业计划书，创业II Weilaicheng Kindergarten Business Plan Abstract This paper aims to do research into the feasibility of Weilaicheng Kindergarten and to provide fundamental basis and guidance by using business environment, marketing strategy, kindergarten management, financial analysis and investment planning, and the risk analysis and coping strategies as the research object. In the form of business plan, the establishment of the kindergarten was the main topic of the paper. In the use of strategy and marketing tools, we could confirm that it’s the right choice for the start-up kindergarten to quickly capture the market and keep steady growth. We can see the vigorous development of early education industry under the national policies. The research and practice of preschool education started late, although the market potential is enormous, but in the separatist era has not formed a monopoly. This is the advantage and good news for the enterprises. The steady growth of the birth rate and the two-child policywill boost the vigor of China's early education market. Kindergarten growth is lower than birth rate, so the customer demand is strong within the imbalance of supply and demand. It is no doubt that the market potential is huge. The feasibility of the kindergarten is proved by the comprehensive analysis of the study, and the rationality and reliability of the results. It can strengthen the willingness and confidence in investing. The research path of this paper is as followed. First, it is a brief overview of the project, which provides the necessary information and data for further analysis; then it is the introduction of the market environment and industry background, and the industry competition analysis is based on Porter's Five Forces Model and SWOT Model. And then the project positioning and marketing objectives are determined by comparing the judgment of the market, competitors and analysis of target customer needs. The promotion strategies and plans are as followed on the basis of 4Ps Theory of Marketing as well as a comprehensive study. Then the kindergarten management, financial analysis and planning, and risk analysis and coping strategies are as followed which further verify the feasibility, prevent and reduce risks. Perfect exit mechanism can enhance the willingness of investors. The natural conclusion as followed is the feasibility of the establishment of kindergarten. Key words:Kindergarten, Early childhood education, Business plan, EntrepreneurshipIII 目录 摘要.................................................................. I Abstract.............................................................. II 第一章 绪论............................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ................................................. 2 1.1.1 研究背景 .................................................. 2 1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................. 4 1.2 文献综述 ....................................................... 5 1.2.1 创业文献研究 ............................................. 5 1.2.2 商业计划书编写文献研究 ................................... 6 1.2.3 管理理论及关于各种分析工具的相关文献 ..................... 7 1.2.4 国内外学前教育理论研究 ................................... 8 1.3 研究内容与拟解决的关键问题 .................................... 11 1.4 研究方法与研究路径 ............................................ 11 1.4.1 研究方法 ................................................ 11 1.4.2 研究路径 ................................................ 11 第二章 项目概述....................................................... 13 2.1 未来城幼儿园简介 .............................................. 13 2.2 未来城幼儿园教育理念、愿景、使命和目标 ........................ 13 2.3 未来城幼儿园定位与特色 ........................................ 13 2.3.1 幼儿园定位 .............................................. 13 2.3.2 办学特色 ................................................ 14 2.4 未来城幼儿园选址 .............................................. 18 2.5 未来城幼儿园合伙人及管理团队 .................................. 20 2.6 未来城幼儿园投入资金与资金分配 ................................ 20 2.7 未来城幼儿园财务预测、风险分析与退出机制 ...................... 21IV 2.7.1 财务预测 ................................................ 21 2.7.2 风险分析 ................................................ 21 2.7.3 退出机制 ................................................ 21 2.8 办园准备事项 .................................................. 22 2.8.1 办园条件与资料准备 ...................................... 22 2.8.2 园所设计规划 ............................................ 23 2.9 本章小结 ...................................................... 25 第三章 未来城幼儿园市场环境与竞争分析................................. 26 3.1 市场环境与背景分析 ............................................ 26 3.1.1 国民经济整体状况 ........................................ 26 3.1.2 幼儿人口及发展趋势 ...................................... 28 3.1.3 政策导向 ................................................ 29 3.2 行业背景分析 .................................................. 30 3.2.1 婴幼儿市场规模 .......................................... 30 3.2.2 幼儿园数量、占比及趋势 .................................. 31 3.2.3 幼儿园在园幼儿数量 ...................................... 32 3.2.4 幼儿园园长和教师数量 .................................... 33 3.2.5 我国教育投入与消费支出 .................................. 33 3.2.6 问题与需求 .............................................. 35 3.3 行业与竞争分析 ................................................ 35 3.3.1 波特五力模型分析 ........................................ 36 3.3.2 SWOT 模型分析 ............................................ 38 3.4 本章小结 ...................................................... 42 第四章 未来城幼儿园的营销策略......................................... 43 4.1 市场定位与竞品分析 ............................................ 43 4.1.1 市场定位 ................................................ 43 4.1.2 竞品分析 .......................................