房地产业已成为我国国民经济的重要支柱产业，对改善城镇居民的居住环 境，推动国民经济稳定高速发展发挥着积极重要的作用。而房地产项目投资又 不同于其他一般行业的投资，它具有高投资、高收益，高风险的特点，正因为 房地产项目投资的投资回收期较长，投资过程中充满了不确定的主观和客观因 数，所以房地产项目投资本身具有很高的风险性。 房地产开发项目的投资，受政策影响较大，对专业知识和经验要求较高。 所以，在进行房地产投资前，投资者必须进行缜密的调查、分析和策划，对投 资项目进行周密的市场预测和项目定位，并通过财务分析和经济评价进行投资 项目的可行性研究，以便对投资项目做出正确的投资决策。只有这样，才能避 免由于盲目投资而给企业造成投资损失，消除对国民经济发展带来的不利影响。 房地产投资项目的可行性研究有利于保证投资项目的科学性和合理性，有助于 确保投资方案的优化和实体投资的有序性，并为房地产投资项目的后续工作提 供依据。房地产企业只有做好投资项目的可行性研究，才能使企业立于不败之 地，从而使企业获取更大的经济利益。 近年来，房地产的开发也是跌宕起伏。2007 年我国的房地产市场还是涨声 如潮，2008 年就遇到了新一轮、更强烈的国家宏观调控及世界金融海啸的袭击， 所以加强房地产投资项目的可行性研究，规范房地产项目的可行性论证，对投 资项目防患于未然，具有现实的积极意义，这也是本文写作的初衷。 本文依据房地产项目开发和可行性研究的特点，介绍了房地产投资项目可行 性研究的原理和指标体系、并根据可行性研究的主要步骤和流程，结合北京市 昌平区小汤山项目，有针对性的对项目所在区域的房地产市场进行了深入的调 研和分析。通过对项目宗地的了解、目标客户群的界定和竞争对手及 SWOT 的分 析，明确了小汤山项目的产品定位和市场定位，通过财务投资及风险分析，提 出了做好房地产投资项目可行性研究的一些方法、思路，希望对提高房地产投 资项目的可行性研究能有所帮助。 关键词，房地产企业；项目投资分析；可行性研究；北京市房地产市场ABSTRACT The real estate industry has become a very important industry of Chinese economy, playing a positive key role for improving residential condition and pushing national economy to grow stably and speedly. But unlike other general industry, the real estate investment has the characters of high investment, high return and high risk. Because of the long term of investment recovery, there are many uncertain subjective and objective elements to make real estate investment full of high risks. The investment of real estate is much impacted by government policy, and requiring rich professional knowledge and experiences. Hence, before implementing investment, the investor must make detail research, analysis and plan. In order to make accurate investment decision, the investor have to make thorough market forecast and project positioning, and to make the feasibility study through financial analysis and economic valuation. Only so can investor avoid the loss of blind investment, and remove the harmful effect on national economy. The feasibility study of the real estate investment is beneficial to ensure the scientificity and the rationality of the project, and helpful to make sure the optimization of the investment scheme and ensure the real investment in order, at the meanwhile to provide the foundation for the ongoing implementation. A good feasibility study can make the enterprise remain invincible, so that to obtain more economic benefits. Nowadays, the real estate was experiencing the twist up and down. In 2007, the real estate market was roaring up, but in 2008, it started to face some new problems and challenges along with the new round of state macro-controlling and international financial tsunami. The market was going backward to the rational stage. So it has more realistic positive meaning to enforce the feasibility research on investment of real estate project and standardize the feasibility arguments. That’s the aim of this article. This article based on the characteristic of project development and feasibility research on real estate, introduced the rationale and index system of feasibility research on real estate. Mainly followed the steps and process of feasibility research,combined with the project of Xiao Tang Shan in Changping district of Beijing, made a special deep investigation on the market in the area of project. By the understanding to the area, definition of target customers and competitors as well as the analysis of SWOT, made certain the product orientation and marketing orientation. Via the analysis of investment and risk, raised some methods and thoughts for the feasibility study. Hope it will be helpful on feasibility research of real estate investments. KEY WORDS，Real estate entities; analysis on project investment;feasibility study;Beijing real estate market目 录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景 ......................................................................................................1 1.2 报告的结构 ......................................................................................................4 1.3 研究的方法 ......................................................................................................4 第二章 房地产投资及房地产投资项目可行性研究的理论基础.............................6 2.1 房地产投资 .....................................................................................................6 2.1.1 房地产投资的概念 ................................................................................6 2.1.2 房地产投资的特点 ................................................................................7 2.2 房地产投资项目可行性研究 .........................................................................8 2.2.1 房地产投资项目分析的概念 ................................................................8 2.2.2 房地产投资项目可行性研究的特点 ....................................................8 2.3 房地产投资项目可行性研究的原理和评价指标 .........................................9 2.3.1 房地产投资项目可行性研究的原理 ...................................................9 2.3.2 房地产投资项目的经济评价指标 ......................................................10 第三章 房地产投资项目可行性研究.......................................................................13 3.1 房地产投资项目可行性研究的依据 ............................................................13 3.2 房地产投资项目可行性研究的内容 ............................................................13 3.3 房地产投资项目可行性研究的步骤 ............................................................15 第四章 房地产市场发展状况分析...........................................................................17 4.1 房地产行业发展环境分析 ............................................................................17 4.1.1 国际宏观经济环境变化分析 ..............................................................17 4.1.2 国内宏观经济环境的变化对房地产行业发展产的影响 ..................17 4.1.3 未来房地产行业发展环境的预测 ......................................................18 4.2 北京市房地产市场分析 ................................................................................19 4.2.1 北京市社会发展发展概述 ..................................................................19 4.2.2.2007 年北京市房地产市场分析 .........................................................24 4.2.3.2008 年北京市房地产市场分析 .........................................................30 4.2.4 2009 年北京市房地产市场分析 .........................................................38 第五章 房地产投资项目可行性研究的案例分析...................................................42 5.1 项目背景介绍 ................................................................................................425.1.1 项目概况 ..............................................................................................42 5.1.2 项目所在区域社会发展综述 ..............................................................43 5.2北京小汤山项目所在区域房地产市场发展调研分析 ..............................46 5.2.1 2007 年项目市场分析 .........................................................................46 5.2.2 2008 年项目市场分析 ................................