可行性研究是项目前期工作中最重要的内容,其结论为投资者的最终决策 提供直接的依据。项目可行性研究可信度的高低直接影响着投资决策的正确性。 目前我国可行性研究中存在的大量问题致使其可信度水平低下,作者对此进行 了下列分析研究:找出影响可行性研究可信度的主要因素和目前可行性研究中 的主要问题:运用信息经济学的经典理论—信息不对称理论和委托代理理论 对可行性研究可信度低下的根本原因进行经济学阐释;为了借鉴外国先进的咨 询业经验,介绍了美国和德国咨询业的情况:最后有的放矢地构建出我国可行 性研究网络型三位一体交易模式,提出详细的提高可行性研究可信度的措施。 在结构上,全文共分为七部分。引言概括介绍可行性研究的定义和重要意 义,引出目前我国项目可行性研究可信度低下的问题。第一部分综述了可行性 研究的产生、发展及现状,第二部分找出影响项目可行性研究可信度的主要因 素,第三部分列举当前我国可行性研究可信度低下问题的种种表现及造成的后 果,第四部分运用信息经济学中的信息不对称理论阐释我国可行性研究可信度 低下的根源,第五部分提出提高可行性研究可信度的措施。最后一部分,对全 文的论述进行了总结。 在对问题的分析论证中,作者首次运用信息经济学中的信息不对称理论阐 释造成目前我国项目可行性研究可信度低下的问题。为了能更好地解决该问题, 作者设计出三位一体交易模式,山投资者、咨询公司和政府管理机构共同参与 项目可行性研究,从而改变了原有的信息不对称状态,在一定程度上防止了“逆 向选择”和“道德风险”,从而有效地提高了可行性研究的可信度。 关键词:可行性研究;可信度:信息不对称;措施TheReliabilityonProjectFeasibilityStudy ABSTRACT AtPresent,thefeasibilitystudy15themostimPortantcontentintheProPhase workoftheProjeet,anditsconelusionoffersdireetgistfortheinvestortomakethe finaldeeision.ThehighorIowlevelofthereliabilityonProjeetfeasibilitystudy influeneesdireetlythevalidityoftheinvestmentdecision一making.Duetoagreat dealofProblemswhatexistinthefeasibilitystudyinChinatoday,thelevelofits reliability15lower,thentheauthoranalyzesandresearehestheseasfollows:the mainfaetorsthatinflueneethereliabilityonthefeasibilitystudyarechaseddown andthemainProblemsinthefeasibilitystudyatPresentarelocated.Quotingthe sutratheoryofEeonomicsInformation一一Asyn、metrieTheoryand Consign一surrogateTheory,theauthorexPlainsineconomicstherootreasontllatthe reliabilityonProjeetfeasibilitystudy1550lower.Forthesakeoftheadvanee exPerieneesoffremdnessareusedforreferenee,theeomPlexionoftheconsultative tradeinAmerieaandGermany15introd、leed.Intheendatradetrinitymodelof Projeetfeasibilitystudythat15atyPeofnetwork15eonstruetedpertinently,andafew measuresthateanenhaneethereliabilityareadvaneedindetail. ’ rhethesisineluded7Parts.InPrethee,、viththedefinitionandtlleirnPortallt meaningofthefeasibi!itys之udybeingintrod:leedprcsunlptiVely,tllevr()blcrllof low一levelinthereliability、》rlPro.ieetf,casibilitystt:dyi:1(’1、inaatPrese:It151七telled o、一t.’l’11eeomingintobeillg.devel()Pmentandaetualityofthefcasibilitystudy15 summarizedinthenrstpart.IntheZdpart.t一lemaininflueneing几etorsort一lereliabilityonProjeetfeasibilitystudyareehaseddown.勺乞rietybehavesofIow一Ievel inthereliabilityonProjectfeasibilitystudyinChinaatPresentareenumeratedand thesequent15Pointedinthe3『dpart.Asymmet‘e仆eo叮inEconomiesInrormation 15aPPliedtoexPlaintherootwhatleadtothelow一levelinthereliabilityonProject feasibi一itystudypresentlyinthe4thpart.八rewormeasuresrhateanenhaneethe re一iabilityarebroughtro,ardinthes’hp叭.xnthe一astp叭,thewho一ediscuss。rthe thesis15summarized. WhentheProblem15analyzedanddemonstrated.theAsymmetrieInformarionTheoryin InformationEeonomics15quotedforthefirsttimetoexPlainthetoday’5Problemofthe Iow一IevelinthereliabilityonProjectfeasibilityslt:dyinChinabytheauthor.Toresolvethe issuebetter,theauthorschemesoutatradetrinitymode,inwhiehinvestor, eonsultativeeorporationandmanagementinstitutionofgovernmentPartieiPate Projeetfeasibilitystudytogether,toaltertheintrinsieestateofasymmetrie information.andPrevent“adverseseleetion”and“moralhazard”ateertainextent,50 thatenhaneeeffeetivelythereliabilityonthefeasibilitystudy. Keyword:Fea,ibilityStudy;Reliability:AsymmetrieInformation;Measurc !1!目 中文摘要.0.。··....························。··。二。··…I 英文摘要。.。·····.···················.················.······H 目录·。。。·。。…。·。。。。。。·。。·。。。。·.·········。·。。·。。。。。。。。·。·…i 引言。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。.。。。·。。·。。。.。。。。·。。。。·。。。。·。二。二。。。·。。l 1.可行性研究的产生、发展及其现状综述·················3 1.1可行性研究的产生及其在国外的发展及现状···················3 1.2投资项目可行性研究在我国的引进和发展。·…。······。…。·。二4 小结。。。。。。。。。。。。。。·。。。。。。。。。。。·…。。。二。。·。·····。二。。··6 2.影响项目可行性研究可信度的卞要因素…。。。·。。·。·。二。··…。·…。…7 2.1市场分析因素·············································7 2 . 2技术选择因素··········································。。.8 2.3财务评价因素..···········································9 2.4国民经济评价因素·········································9 2.5社会评价因素············································11 2.6风险分析因素············································11 小结。。。。。·。。。。。二。。…。。。·····,··…,·。,..··,…12 3 . 我国项目可行性研究可信度低下的1二要表现及后果··········13 3.1我国项目可行性研究可信度低下的一1二要表现··················13 3 . 2我国项目可行性研究可信度低下的严重后粱,············.····18 小结。。。。·。。。二。。·。.。。。·…,…。。二。·“···...·····.。·…17 4 . 我国项日可行性研究。Jf‘初变低卜的经济’、尹闸释.······.········.!9 4.1信息不对称理论概述······································19 4.2应川信息不对称理论闸释,l丁行性研究;l川占度低卜问题··········以) 小结二。。二。。…,·.…,····.·································沙l 5.提高我[f]项日可行卞卜研究可信度的于行施·······················25 5.1关囚专门职业的竹理体系介绍······························25 5.2德国咨询业的情况介绍·····.·.··········.·.···············26 5.3提高我困‘I丁行性研究可了泪变的措施········。····。二。…29,ILQ自qdb滩人d几月任.任小结 总结 ................. 0...........0.............. ...... 0...........................................