摘要 中国房地产在过去的10年里取得了飞速发展和巨大成就。自1998年中国住房 制度改革以来,中国的房地产走向了全面市场化,由计划经济及住房分配时代积累 的住房需求得到了极大释放,加上中国经济在过去10年的高速增长和全国城镇化建 设的推进,中国的房地产业取得极大发展,房地产规模和建筑面积逐年递增,房地 产市场亦日益成熟和完善。目前的房地产业已发展成为我国的重要产业,它是涉及 土地、建筑、交易和金融服务的多链条、多部门的重要产业,但同时房地产的投资 和投机属性也充分的显现出来。2006至2007年,房价上涨迅速,使得投资和投机 需求增加,这导致房价暴涨,土地的价格也出现涨势迅猛的态势。2007年国家出台 了一系列针对房地产的专项调控政策,以稳定房价。2011年更是出台了“限购、限贷” 等政策,有效地抑制了房价的过快上涨。但自2012年下半年开始,房地产交易市场 又呈旺盛,房价飙升迅猛。 为了遏制房价的过快上涨,党中央和国务院再次出台一系列房地产调控政策, 经济手段和行政手段双管齐下,从抑制需求、增加供给及加强监管等方面对中国的 房地产市场进行了全方位调控,与以往不同,此次调控政策强度非常之大、调控政 策频出。中央明确提出了 “房价控制目标”,同时由于限购实施范围扩大,促使各方 对房价下降充满了希望,买家(包括投资者)对未来房价上涨的预期得到显著抑制。 同期实行的其他政策,如:提高二套房首付、从严征收营业税、加息等也加大了买 家的成本,增加投资性购房者的获利风险。 广州经济发展水平高、发展前景看好、市场辐射力较强,且前几年房价相较上 海、北京、深圳等城市更为理性,在目前全社会货币流动性充裕的背景之下,仍拥 有强劲的市场需求。但是,随着广州土地价格的大幅上涨、购房负担明显增加,市 场份额亦呈现下降趋势。基于以上种种原因,房地产公司在决策是否要开发一个项 目时变得更加谨慎小心了。 在此背景下,CL公司针对金沙洲商住项目的幵发,进行了可行性研究。本项 目可行性研究从企业背景、目标市场、建设方案、组织实施方案、投资估算、资金 筹措等方面进行研究、分析、论证,对项目进行财务评价和社会评价,同时对项目 I 广东工业大学硕士学位报告 实施和运营过程中可能存在的风险(包括技术、市场、政策等)进行了分析,最后 得出明确的建议。希望通过本文的讨论,为CL公司金沙洲商住项目的可行性提供 依据,亦为日后的房地产项目可行性分析提供一种直观有效的分析模式,也为同行 企业的可行性研究起到一定的借鉴作用。 关键词:可行性研究;房地产;投资分析;投资建设项目 II Abstract Abstract China's real estate has achieved rapid development and great achievements in the past decade. Since 1998 with the reform of the housing system,China's real estate goes toward a comprehensive market. The accumulation of housing demand from the era of planned economy and housing allocation has been greatly released. The real estate market has become increasingly mature and improve because of the economy's rapid growth over the past 10 years and urbanization in China ; the construction of China 's real estate industry made tremendous development ; real estate and construction area yearly scale. The current real estate industry has developed into an important industry , which is involved in land,construction,trade and financial services more chain, multisectoral important industry,but real estate investment and speculative property is also fully revealed. From 2006 to 2007,housing prices rose rapidly,making the investment and speculative demand,which led to skyrocketing housing prices,land prices also rapid gains momentum. In 2007 the state issued a series of special regulation policies for the real estate in order to stabilize housing prices. In 2011 the state issued a regulation policy of the ’’ restriction, loans limitation ”,effectively inhibited the fast rising housing prices . However,since the second half of 2012,the real estate market become strong, housing prices soared rapidly. In order to curb fast rising housing prices,CPC Central Committee and the State Council re- introduced a series of real estate regulation policies,economic instruments and administrative measures two-pronged approach,to comprehensive regulate China 's real estate market on the curb demand, increasing supply and strengthen supervision and other aspects .Unlike in the past is that the regulation policies is stronger and higher frequency. The government clearly put forward the “ housing price control target, while expanding the scope of the purchase,prompting the parties to the decline in housing prices is full of hope,the buyer ( including investors ) for future housing prices are expected to be significantly inhibited. Year to implement other policies,such as: increased second suite down payment,strictly business tax,interest rates,also m 广东工业大学硕士学位报告 increased the buyer's cost and increased the profitability of investment buyers risk . Guangzhou's economic development is very high level, the development prospects is good,the market radiation is strong, and its housing prices are more rational than other cities such as Shanghai,Beijing,Shenzhen in the past years,and it still has a strong market demand in the current society ample monetary liquidity backdrop. However, with the sharp rise in land prices in Guangzhou and buyers pay significantly increased. The market share has shown a downward trend . For all of these reasons, it become more cautious careful when the real estate company make a decision whether to develop a project. In this context,CL company conducted a feasibility study of Jinshazhou commercial and residential project. This feasibility study focus on business background, target market,construction plan,organize and implement programs,investment estimates,financing plans and other aspects of research,analysis,feasibility studies, also on the project financial evaluation,social evaluation and the possible risks (including technical,market, policy,etc. ) of the project's implementation and operation. Finally draw a definitive recommendation. Hope that through this discussion, can provide the basis for the feasibility of CL company's Jinshazhou commercial and residential project,and provide an intuitive and effective model for the feasibility analysis of the real estate project in the future, also play a reference for peer companies. Key words: Feasibility study; real estate; investment analysis; investment project construction IV 目录 目录 臓 I ABSTRACT Ill 目录 V CONTENTS IX m-M 雜 i l.i研究背景 1 l.i.i行业背景和政策背景 1 1.1.2企业概况和项目概况 2 1.2研究意义 3 1.2.1理论意义 3 1.2.2现实意义 4 1.3文献综述 4 1.3.1可行性研究的国外研究现状 4 1.3.2可行性研究的国内研究现状 5 1.3.3房地产市场的相关研究 6 1.4研究内容和研究方法 6 1.4.1研究内容 6 1.4.2研究方法 7 1.5本章小结 7 第二章市场需求分析 8 2.1市场现状分析 8 2.1.1中国房地产市场现状 8 2.1.2广州市房地产市场现状 10 2.1.3金沙洲板块房地产市场现状 12 2.2目标市场需求分析 13 2.2.1我国房地产市场需求分析 13 V 广东工业大学硕士学位报告 2.2.2广州房地产市场需求分析 14 2.3项目目标市场分析 16 2.4竞争能力分析 18 2.4.1项目自身情况 18 2.4.2竞争对手情况 20 2.5 SWOT 分析 21 2.5.1 优势 22 2.5.2 劣势 23 2.5.3 23 2.5.4 威胁 24 2.5.5 SWOT综合分析 24 2.6定位分析和营销策略 25 2.7本章小结 27 第三章项目建设方案 28 3.1规划设计方案 28 3.1.1规划概念 28 3.1.2建筑布局 28 3.1.3交通系统规划 30 3.1.4绿化系统规划 30 3.1.5竖向设计 31 3.1.6公建配套及附属设施设计 31 3.2项目选址概况 31 3.3项目主体工程方案 32 3.3.1设计依据 32 3.3.2结构设计 32 3.4公用设施工程方案 33 3.4.1电力工程 33 3.4.2弱电工程 34 3.4.3给水系统 36 3.4.4排水系统 36 VI 目录 3.4.5空调系统 37 3.4.6机械通风系统 37 3.4.7防排烟系统 37 3.4.8消防系统 38 3.5节能分析 39 3.5.1设计依据 39 3.5.2建筑设计节能措施 39 3.5.3节电措施 40 3.5.4节水措施 40 3.6环境影响分析与评价 40 3.6.1污染源分析及防治措施 40 3.6.2生态环境影响分析 42 3.6.3外环境对本项目的影响分析 43 3.6.4 结论 43 3.7本章小结 43 第四章项目组织实施方案 44 4.1项目的组织机构和人力资源分析 44 4.1.1项目组织结构设计 44 4.1.2人力资源配置 44 4.2项目实施进度 45 4.2.1项目开发原则 45 4.2.2项目建设工期 45 4.2.3项目实施进度安排 45 4.3招标方案 46 4.4本章小结 47 第五章项目财务评价 48 5.1项目财务评价的相关理论 48 5.1.丨项目的企业财务评价的概念 48 5.1.2项目的企业财务评价程序 48 5.1.3项目的企业财务评价原则 49 VII 广东工业大学硕士学位报告 5.2投资估算 49 5.2.1投资估算依据 49 5.2.2项目投资估算表 52 5.3项目资金筹措 54 5.3.1项目投资计划 54 5.3.2项目资金来源 56 5.3.3项目销售收入的测算(含相