可行性研究是在管理者作出投资选择之前，对投资项目开展系统详尽的技术 分析以及经济研究，旨在对项目可行性做出合理预计和判断的一种科学研究方法。 它是项目投资前期的一项重要工作，是项目投资选择中不可或缺的环节。可行性 分析的目的就是为实现项目的最佳经济效果，对项目的经济合理性、技术先进性 进行全面分析和论证，给项目投资决策提供科学准确的依据从而有效地规避风险， 提高投资的经济效果和社会效果并为开展下一步工作打下基础。 本文从可行性研究的基本理论和基本方法出发，按照行业背景、公司战略、 市场分析、技术分析、财务评价和风险控制的顺序，结合相关线缆行业 A 公司实 际情况，对公司拟建投资的铝合金导线生产线项目进行了可行性分析，过程中采 用了五力分析、SWOT 分析、盈亏平衡分析、投资回收期等方法，将公司战略纳 入可行性研究的体系，对项目的可行性进行了全面系统的分析讨论，尤其就财务 评价板块进行了重点分析，对盈利能力指标体系进行了一定的创新和优化，注重 资金的时间价值，更多的运用动态指标进行财务分析，并通过最后的不确定性分 析，得出了较为科学合理的结论。 公司以往的可行性研究报告比较简单，对资金的时间价值基本不考虑，不注 重与公司战略结合分析，市场和风险分析不深入，没有形成科学规范的可行性研 究模式。本文希望通过对 A 公司铝合金导线生产线项目的研究，为公司有效投资 决策提供依据，并帮助企业建立完善的较全面系统的可行性分析框架。 关键词，铝合金导线生产线项目 可行性研究II ABSTRACT The feasibility study is a scientific method which through comprehensive technical and economic analysis and argument on the proposed project to evaluate the project is feasible or infeasible before investment. It is an important work and process at the beginning of investment, which is necessary for investment decision. The purpose of feasible analysis is that let the project achieve the best economic effects. By comprehensive analysis to economic rationality and advanced technology of project, It can avoid risk effectly, improve economic effect and social effect of investment and establish the base for carrying out next step work. Starting from the basic theory and method of feasible study, in accordance with industry background, company strategy, market analysis, technical analysis, financial evaluation and risk control, combined with A company's actual situation, the article do a feasible analysis on company's proposed investment of aluminum alloy wire project. With using the five forces analysis, SWOT analysis, breakeven analysis, payback period and other methods,it includes the company's strategy and study the feasibility of the project all sidedly, especially in the aspect of financial evaluation. It innovates and optimizes the system of profitability, focusing on time value of capital, using dynamic index to analyze finance, finally get a scientific and reasonable conclusion with uncertainty analysis. The previous feasible study is simple, basically does not consider the time value of capital and company's strategy, do not pay attention to the market and risk analysis, does not form a scientific and standardized feasibility study mode. This article hopes that after studying the program of aluminum alloy cable technical improvement, it can provide the basis for effective investment decisions for the company and help enterprises to establish completed feasible analysis framework. Keywords: The project of aluminum alloy wire production-line, feasible studyIII 目 录 第一章 绪 论......................................................................................................................1 1.1 课题研究的背景 .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 产业政策及行业规划背景 ................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 铝合金导线具有鲜明的技术特点 ....................................................................... 1 1.1.3 铝合金导线市场容量背景 ................................................................................... 2 1.2 课题研究的意义 .......................................................................................................... 2 1.3 研究内容和研究思路 .................................................................................................. 3 1.4 课题研究的理论基础 .................................................................................................. 5 1.4.1 可行性研究的概念 ............................................................................................... 5 1.4.2 可行性研究现状 ................................................................................................... 5 1.4.3 可行性研究的作用 ............................................................................................... 7 1.4.4 可行性研究的内容 ............................................................................................... 9 1.4.5 可行性研究的方法及阶段 ................................................................................... 9 第二章 项目与公司发展战略的适应性分析..................................................................12 2.1 项目概述 .................................................................................................................... 12 2.1.1 公司概况 .............................................................................................................. 12 2.1.2 项目建设的必要性 ............................................................................................. 12 2.2 项目投资与公司战略的关系 .................................................................................... 14 2.3 公司的战略环境 ........................................................................................................ 15 2.3.1 外部环境 ............................................................................................................. 15 2.3.2 内部环境 ............................................................................................................. 18 2.4 公司战略环境的 SWOT 分析................................................................................... 18 2.5 项目与战略的适应性 ................................................................................................ 21 第三章 项目市场可行性分析..........................................................................................22 3.1 铝合金导线市场前景及需求预测 ............................................................................ 22 3.1.1 国际市场 ............................................................................................................. 22 3.1.2 国内市场 ............................................................................................................. 23 3.2 市场环境分析 ............................................................................................................ 24目录 IV 3.2.1 购买方 ................................................................................................................. 24 3.2.2 行业内现有竞争者 .............................................................................................. 24 3.2.3 供应商 .................................................................................................................. 24 3.2.4 潜在竞争者 .......................................................................................................... 25 3.2.5 替代品生产者 ...................................................................................................... 25 3.3 行业关键成功因素 .................................................................................................... 25 3.4 A 公司实施本项目的竞争能力及有利条件， ......................................................... 26 3.4.1 产品竞争能力分析 ............................................................................................. 26 3.4.2 产品研发技术优势 ............................................................................................. 27 3.4.3 质量管理优势 ..................................................................................................... 27 3.4.4 营销网络优势 ...............................................