HW 饲料科技有限公司是一家专业的预混料生产外商独资 企业，主要产品是预混合饲料，其次为浓缩料。 HW 公司成立于 1996 年，年双班生产能力 1 . 5 万吨。自 97 年正式投产以来，销售情况呈现迅速增长趋势，年均递增率达 72.8%，99 年产量已达到企业生产能力的 80%。 由于销售的快速成长，HW 公司准备对预混料生产进行扩 建，扩建的内容主要包括新建一个年双班生产能力 3 万吨的生 产车间以及相应的成品仓库、原料仓库、厂区道路等配套设施， 计划总投资 1600 万，生产能力将由现在的 1.5 万吨提高到 4.5 万吨。 为减少投资风险，增加企业投资决策的科学性，根据 HW 公司的要求，对该项目进行可行性论证。本可行性报告从市场 需求、原材料及能源供应状况、建厂条件、工程设计方案、环 境保护、人员需求、工程实施进度、投资估算及经济效益等方 面对该项目进行了调查、分析及评价，得出如下结论， 一、在未来十年内，该产品的市场还是处于增长阶段，估 计每年将以 8—12%的速度递增，HW 公司产品的销售将继续 保持较快增长，在 5 年内有望达到扩建后的生产能力； 二、扩建后生产所需的各种原材料的供应是充足的，能源 的供应是有保障的； 三、新建项目的选址定在 HW 公司内，建厂条件是满足要 求的； 四、工程设计方案，在本项目的设计中采用了垂直布置工 艺、二次粉碎工艺、变频技术等先进的生产技术，并在关键部 分选用了进口设备，年生产能力为 3 万吨； 五、在环境保护方面，根据预混料厂的污染源主要是粉尘3 和嗓音，采用多点吸尘来降低粉尘，采用多种减振、隔振措施 来降低嗓音；针对饲料厂存在粉尘爆炸的危险，采取降低粉尘 浓度、严禁各种烟火及防爆、泄压、延燃措施，来减少、控制 粉尘爆炸； 六、随着生产量的增大，对人力的需求将逐步增大，5 年 内公司员工将由现在的 176 人增加到 350 人。对新增员工的培 训将采用送出去与请进来相结合的办法； 七、该项目总投资为 1600 万元，固定资产投资的资金来源 为公司前几年的未分配利润，所需的流动资金由银行贷款解 决； 八、经济效益与社会效益分析。主要采用“有无对比法”， 通过采用非贴现投资评价分析、贴现投资评价分析、不确定性 分析等方法对项目的经济效益和抗风险的能力进行分析，并对 项目的社会效益进行了简要评价，得出如下结果， 1、十年内，扩建后较不扩建新增利润 33825 万元，平均每 年增加利润 3383 万元； 2、非贴现投资评价指标，该项目的投资利润率为 56.96% ， 投资回收期为 4.3 年（含建设期）； 3、贴现投资评价指标，净现值为 18047 万元，（贴现率为 8% ），现值系数为 3.04，内部报酬率为 57.70% ，这几个指标均 说明该方案是可行方案，具有良好的经济效益； 4、扩建后销售利税率与销售净利润率为 22.89% 与 15.55% ， 均高出同等情况下不扩建的这两个指标，说明该项目有一定的 规模效益； 5、不确定性分析，通过建立成本 -销量及销售收入 -销量两 个方程，计算得本项目盈亏平衡点为 22.93%，盈亏平衡产量4 为 10317 吨；选择销售量、销售价格、付现成本、固定资产投 资、建设期推迟等因素进行敏感性分析，发现销售价格与付现 成本得波动对该项目收益的影响较大，其次为销售量的变动， 影响最小的是固定资产投资增加及建设期推迟。在上述几种情 况下，最低的内部收益率为 27.7%，说明该项目具有较强的抗 风险能力。 6、社会效益分析，该项目新增就业机会 162 人，并可带来 一些间接的就业机会；在收入分配上，职工分配指数为 4.92%， 国家分配指数为 32.77%，企业分配指数为 14.5%，股东分配指 数为 47.81%，地区分配指数为 35.81%，其中增长最快的是国 家分配收益这一部分；该项目还会在一定程度上推动饲料行业 的技术进步。 通过上面的分析，说明该项目具有良好的市场前景，建设 条件具备，原料供应可靠，工程技术可行，经济效益和社会效 益显著，建设期短，投资回收快，工程建设必要可行，建议建 设单位应抓紧项目的前期准备工作，使该项目尽快进入建设阶 段。 关键词， 预混料 扩建 可行性5 ABSTRACT HW Feed Technology Limited Company is a foreign solely-invested enterprise. Its main product is premixed feed and the second is concentrated feed. HW Company was founded in 1996. The production capacity is 15,000 ton per year. Since its formal production in 1997, the sale of products has been up all the time. The rate of grow th is 72.8% each year. HW Company will produce about 12,035 ton in 1999, which reach about 80% of its full production capacity. Because the sale of its products has increased quickly, the HW Company planned to build a new plant for premixed feed production. The project, including the building of the new plant, the finished warehouse, the raw material warehouse and the roads etc., will need about 16 million RMB. The production capability of the new plant is 30,000 ton per year. In order to reduce the risk of investment, the HW Company assigned me to conduct the feasibility studies on the new plant. After 6 -month hard work, the report is submitted to the company. The following are the outlines of the feasibility studies: 1. The sale of the premixed and concentrated feed will be on the increase and the market will demand 8 -10% more every year in the coming ten years. The production capacity will reach the designed capacity in 5 years. 2. Various raw materials and energy will be in a sufficient when the new plant is built. 3. The new plant will be located inside the HW Company and the building condition is satisfactory. 4. The engineering design plan is ado pted the most6 advanced technique, namely the vertical arrangement technique ， the twice -ground technique and Frequency conversion technology, etc.. The key equipment, such as mix and auto -bagging scale device, is imported. The designed capacity is 30,000 ton. 5. T he main pollution is the dust and the noise from feed plant. Several dust collectors will be arranged in different places to reduce the dust. To reduce the noise, the machinery, which will produce very loud noise when it works, will be isolated from other place. 6. The employee of the company will be up to 350 from 176 in 1999 within 5 years. New employee will be trained before they start to work. 7. The amount of money to be invested in the project will be 16 million RMB. The fund will come from undistributed profits of HW Company. 8. To evaluate the economic and social re sults of the project, the “if and if not” method is adopted. The results are the following: 8.1. If the project is invested, HW Company could earn additional profits 338.25 million RMB in 10 years. The average is 33.83 million each year. 8.2. The Investment Profit Rate of the project is 56.96 %. The Payback Period is 4.3 year (include building period). 8.3. The Net Present Value is 18 million (The discount rate is 8%). The Profitability Index is 3.04. The Internal Rate of Return is 57.7 0 %. These indexes show that the project is feasibility. 8.4. The Profit Margin of Sale is 15.55%, the Profit and Tax Margin of Sale is 22.89%. Both of the two indexes are better than now. It means the project has scale-benefit.7 8.5. Uncertain analysis: In this report, two equations are created, that are the quantity-cost and quantity-sale income. The calculation indicates that the break -even point is 22.93% and the production is 10,317 ton. Five factors are used for sensitivity analysis. They are the quantity, the price, the cost, the fixed assets invested and the build-time delay. The NPV, IRR and PP are chosen as evaluation indexes. The changes of the price and the cost have greatest influence on the benefits of the project, the second influence is the change of quantity, the third influences are the increase of the invested and build-time delay. The lowest IRR is 27.7%, higher than the bank rate. These show the project has good anti-risk capability. 8.6. To evaluate the social results of the project:The project will employ 162 directly and will provide some undirectly occupation;From earning distribution, the index of salary is 4.92%, the index of country is 32.77%, the index of company is 14.5%, the index of stockholder is 47.81%.The portion of country is most increase. The project will improve the level of feed production technology, too. From above technical and economic analysis, we think that the project will have a good future, satisfactory construction condition, a sufficient raw material supply, engineering advances, remarkable economic and social benefits and short build time. These show that it is a good project, which it is necessary to carry out construction as soon as possible. Keyword: Premix Feed, New Plant. Feasibility8 目 录 页码 中文摘要 英文摘要 前 言 第一章 总 论 1 一、企业基本情况 1 二、企业所在地情况 1 三、企业主要产品 2 四、预混料生产二期扩建的必要