目前，我国人口老龄化问题备受关注，国家政策大力鼓励发展养老服务业。 保监会也响应国家的号召，在保险行业开展反向抵押养老保险试点。实施住房反 向抵押贷款对国家养老保障体系建设、行业及机构业务扩展、丰富养老模式，提 高老年人生活质量意义重大。国外已有成熟的发展模式，我国反向抵押养老保险 也已在多个发达城市开展试点，这为我国其他城市发展反向抵押贷款提供丰富的 经验。 安徽省各地市都面临着严重的老龄化问题，本文试图从不同角度出发研究内 地省会城市合肥是否具备实施反向抵押贷款的可行性。首先，分析合肥市经济和 政策背景。其中，经济背景包括对合肥经济总量及其增速、房地产市场、金融机 构的分析。政策背景包括国家政策和合肥市政府推出的相关养老政策。通过分析 得出合肥具备开展反向抵押贷款的良好的经济和政策环境。其次，分析合肥市开 展反向抵押贷款的必要性。通过研究发现，合肥市具有开展反向抵押贷款的必要 性。包括，人口老龄化严重、传统居家子女养老模式的不足、机构养老模式发展 受限、其他类型以房养老模式具有不足。最后，通过采取线上线下发放调查问卷 的方式，获取在合肥市有房产或将在合肥购房的群体对反向抵押贷款的接受意愿 与看法。依据问卷调查的数据，借助 stata 统计分析软件，进行认知度分析、意 愿度分析、影响因素分析及风险因素分析。结果表明，目前合肥市对反向抵押贷 款认知度及接受度较低，开展反向抵押贷款可能面临需求风险。同时，业务开展 还具有房价波动风险、寿命不确定风险、利率变动风险、逆向选择和道德风险。 其中，房价波动风险、长寿风险是调查者最担心的风险。问卷结果显示，性别、 年龄、拥有的住房数量对是否接受反向抵押贷款具有显著影响。男性、中青年、 具有多套房产的群体接受意愿较高。具有多套房产的群体占比达 17.47%，收入 较低和较高的群体都具有接受意愿，且业务开展中面临的道德风险较低。结合合 肥市的经济、政策背景及开展此项业务的必要性，得出未来合肥具有开展反向抵 押贷款业务的可行性。 调查问卷的结果表明开展反向抵押贷款具备以下几个因素将增加其对被调 查者的吸引力，包括双方共享升值收益、政府为项目提供担保、债务无追索权、 具有多样的债务偿还方式。为将来更好地采用反向抵押贷款解决养老问题，本文 建议逐步提高社会的认可、推动参与机构多元化、实施惠民的贷款管理办法、完 善定价机制、加强政府监管。 关键词，合肥市；反向抵押贷款；可行性研究；接受意愿；风险分析I Abstract At present, much attention has been paid to the aging of population in China. the national policy encourages the development of pension services. China Insurance Regulatory Commission answer the call of the state, carrying out reverse mortgage endowment insurance pilot in the insurance industry. Reverse mortgage has great significance to the construction of national pension security system, the expansion of industry and companies, riching endowment pattern, the improvement of the elderly life quality. Abroad has mature development mode, and our country has already carried out pilot of the reverse mortgage endowment insurance in many developed city. Therefore,these cases can provides other cities in our couuntry with a wealth of experience about the housing reverse mortgage loan . Anhui province is faced with serious aging problem, this paper tries to research the feasibility of implementing housing reverse mortgage from different angles in Hefei. First of all, this paper analyse economic and policy environment in Hefei. the analysis of economic background consists of economic output and growth, the real estate market, financial institution. The analysis of policy background includes national policies and pension policy of Hefei government. Through analysis, this paper finds out that Hefei has good economic and policy environment for the development of reverse mortgage loan. Secondly, this paper analyses the necessity of implementing housing reverse mortgage loan in Hefei. By looking for data, this paper finds out that it is necessary for hefei to carry out reverse mortgages, because of serious aging population, the deficiency of traditional pension pattern of support parents by children , limited development of institution endowment pattern, the deficiency of the other types of house-for-pension. Finally, by taking online questionnaires and field research to acquire the view and the willing of acceptance of infoemants about reverse mortgages. Based on the survey data, this paper makes different analysis ,including cognition degree analysis, willingness degree analysis, influence factor analysis and the analysis of risk factors. At present, the cognition degree and the willing degree of acceptance of reverse mortgages are low, carrying out reverse mortgages will face demand risk. At the same time, the business also has a house price fluctuation risk, longevity risk, interest rate risk, adverse selection and moral risk. Questionnaire results show that Gender, age, and the number of housing have a significant impact on whether to accept reverse mortgage. Men,the young and middle-aged,people with multiple properties are more willing to accept. people with multiple housings accounted for 17.47%, low income and high income populationII both have willingness to accept, and the moral risk is low. Combined with economic and policy background and the necessity of carrying out reserve mortgage, this paper think that there is the feasibility of carrying out reverse mortgage in Hefei in the future. Based on the questionnaire, this paper finds that it will be beneficial to improve attraction to people ,if reverse mortgage loan has the following several factors, including both sides can Shared benefit when house price rises, government provide guarantees for the projects, without debt recourse, having a variety of ways to repay debt. In order to carry out reverse mortgage successfully to solve the problem, this paper provides many suggestions,including gradually improving the social recognition, pushing the participator pluralism, implementing measures which is benificial to people for the management of loans, improving the pricing mechanism, strengthening the supervision of the government. Key words: Hefei;Reverse mortgages; Feasibility research; The willingness to accept; Risk analysis1 目录 第一章 绪论..............................................1 第一节 选题背景及研究意义 .....................................1 一、选题背景 ...............................................1 二、研究意义 ...............................................1 第二节 国内外研究现状 .........................................2 一、国外研究现状...........................................2 二、国内研究现状 ...........................................3 三、研究评述 ...............................................4 第三节 研究思路与方法 .........................................4 一、研究思路 ...............................................4 二、研究方法 ...............................................5 第四节 创新点及不足之处 .......................................5 一、可能的创新点 ...........................................5 二、存在的不足 .............................................6 第二章 反向抵押贷款的内涵及理论基础......................7 第一节 住房反向抵押贷款的内涵 .................................7 一、住房反向抵押贷款的概述 .................................7 二、住房反向抵押贷款的意义 .................................8 第二节 住房反向抵押贷款的理论基础 .............................8 一、生命周期理论 ...........................................9 二、家庭财富代际转移理论与资源优化配置 .....................9 三、资产流动性理论 .........................................9 第三章 国内外典型的反向抵押贷款.........................10 第一节 国际上典型的住房反向抵押贷款 ..........................10 一、美国三种不同类型的住房反向抵押贷款 ....................10 二、新加坡的住房反向抵押贷款 ..............................11 第二节 国内的住房反向抵押养老保险 ............................12 一、投保资格 ..............................................12 二、保险金领取 ............................................122 三、保险生效期间投保人权利与义务 ..........................13 第三节 国内外住房反向抵押贷款的比较 ..........................14 一、不同国家反向抵押贷款的差异 ............................14 二、国外反向抵押贷款对我国的借鉴 ..........................14 第四章 合肥市实施反向抵押贷款的背景及必要性.............