近几年，经济的快速发展和居民收入的快速提升，金融市场迅速壮大，阜新银行作为 深耕“稳中求进，提质增效”的金融机构，在过去几年经营效益有了明显的改善。但随着 利率市场化进程加快、互联网金融迅速兴起、金融脱媒愈演愈烈、金融创新与日俱增，银 行业竞争日趋白热化。加之银行产品日益同质化，网点运营、服务与营销逐步成为竞争的 关键，银行网点成为了商业银行的重要战场。在这一背景下，阜新银行扩建的重要性更为 凸显，一是以往“跑马圈地”的网点扩建模式已不可持续；二是客户的日渐成熟倒逼其网 点升级改造；三是自身的业务经营转型客观要求网点升级改造。因此。阜新银行的网点扩 建既是顺应行业发展的趋势，也是自身发展的要求。应当通过优化营业网点的布局，合理 设计网点功能分区，改变网点的营销服务流程，提升网点营销服务能力，构建起以网点作 为基础的银行零售业务发展体系，实现业务功能由核算交易主导型向营销服务主导型进行 转变。 本文主要针对阜新银行网点扩建项目可行性进行研究。首先，分析阜新银行网点升级 改造项目背景、意义及内容、进度与标准为可行性研究提供基本路径；然后，在归纳和整 理了项目可行性研究相关理论与方法的基础上，结合阜新银行扩建项目的实际情况，构建 阜新银行扩建项目 ARIMA 模型，并从项目内、外市场环境通过 ARIMA 预测与修正的戈 德史密斯金融融量模型对项目市场可行性进行分析；紧接着还对项目实施方案进行了分 析；使用市场分析法和财务分析法进行财务可行性分析；最后还通过不确定分析法进行项 目风险评估分析，力图阜新银行升级改造实现成本缩减、投资回报与客户的满意度提升提 供参考依据。 关键词，网点扩建；阜新银行；可行性研究 ；经济效益评价- II - Abstract In recent years, the rapid increase of the rapid economic development and the income of residents, the rapid growth of financial markets, the Bank of Fuxin as the roots of maintaining stability, quality and efficiency of financial institutions , has improved significantly in the past few years performance. But with the market interest rates to accelerate the process, the rapid rise of Internet banking, financial disintermediation intensified, financial innovation grow with each passing day banking competition is becoming increasingly intense, coupled with the bank. The growing homogenization of products, network operators, service and marketing has gradually become the key of competition, banks become the most important battlefield to commercial banks. In this context, the importance of the expansion of the Bank of Fuxin is more prominent: one is the staking outlets the expansion mode is not sustainable; two is the customer maturity forced its network upgrading; three is the upgrading of business transformation. Because of its objective requirement of network The Bank of Fuxin. The network expansion is not only conform to the development trend of the industry, but also the requirement of the development. Through the optimization of business outlets should be reasonable layout, design the function of the network partition, change the network marketing service process, improve network marketing service ability, build a network as the basis of the retail banking business development system, to achieve business function by accounting transaction oriented to the marketing and service oriented. This paper focuses on the feasibility of Fuxin Bank branch expansion project. Firstly, analysis of Fuxin bank outlets upgrade project background, significance and content, progress and standards to provide the basic path of feasibility study; then, in the summary and review of relevant theory and method of project feasibility research, combined with the actual situation of the Bank of Fuxin expansion project. The Construction Bank of Fuxin expansion project ARIMA model, and from the project, external market environment through the ARIMA prediction and correction Godwin Smith finance model to project market feasibility analysis; then has analyzed the implementing scheme of the project; financial feasibility analysis of the use of market analysis and financial analysis; finally, the uncertain the analysis method of project risk assessment analysis, trying to reform the implementation of cost reduction and- III - upgrading the Bank of Fuxin, and return on investment Customer satisfaction to provide reference. Key Words，Network expansion; Bank of Fuxin; Feasibility study; Economic evaluation- IV - 目 录 摘要 ...............................................................................................................I Abstract .................................................................................................................II 1 绪论 ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 问题提出 ............................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .......................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究目的及意义 ............................................................................... 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 ................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ................................................................................... 4 1.3 研究内容 ............................................................................................... 6 1.4 技术路线 ............................................................................................... 7 2 扩建项目可行性研究的相关理论基础 ............................................................ 8 2.1 扩建项目可行性研究的概念及特点 ..................................................... 8 2.1.1 扩建项目可行性研究的概念 ............................................................ 8 2.1.2 扩建项目可行性研究的特点 ............................................................ 9 2.2 扩建项目可行性研究的分析方法 ........................................................10 2.2.1 年金法 .............................................................................................10 2.2.2 市场分析方法 ..................................................................................11 2.2.3 财务分析方法 ..................................................................................11 2.2.4 不确定性分析理论 ..........................................................................13 3 阜新银行扩建项目概况实施分析 ..................................................................16 3.1 阜新银行扩建项目概况 .......................................................................16 3.1.1 项目简介 .........................................................................................16 3.1.2 项目建设背景 ..................................................................................16 3.1.3 项目建设内容 ..................................................................................19 3.1.4 项目建设预期目标 ..........................................................................22 3.1.5 项目建设期......................................................................................22- V - 3.2 阜新银行目标客户分析 .......................................................................24 3.2.1 存款来源分析 ..................................................................................24 3.2.2 贷款结构分析 ..................................................................................26 3.3 阜新银行业务开展情况分析 ................................................................27 3.4 阜新银行扩建项目实施分析 ................................................................31 3.4.1 阜新银行扩建项目质量标准 ...........................................................31 3.4.2 阜新银行扩建项目重要干系人分析 ................................................32 3.4.3 阜新银行扩建项目章程分析 ...........................................................34 4 阜新银行扩建项目财务可行性分析 ...............................................................37 4.1 阜新银行扩建项目投资估算 ................................................................37 4.2 阜新银行扩建项目产出分析 ..............