京广两地往返航线近年来发展迅猛，2005 年-2010 年期间航线线总体旅客运输量超 1500 万人次，年均增长速度 5.76%。其中，头等舱和公务舱旅客运输量 90.75 万，年均 增长速度远超航线整体增幅达 30%。同时，由于航线的迅猛发展，航空公司加大了该航 线的运力的投入，造成了航线运力供给大于客源需求的局面。面对这种情况，南航只有 在市场竞争中通过增强高端旅客选择的倾向性，抢占高端客源的市场份额，提高航班整 体的票价水平，才能提高京广航班的经营品质、提升南航的高端品牌形象。 本商业计划书以南航京广线铂金航班项目作为研究对象，运用 PEST 模型和波特五 力模型对宏观和行业环境进行了分析，并结合航线情况对高端旅客的消费行为特点进行 了深入的剖析，通过竞争对手和自身优劣势的情况对比，综合分析了项目的各个影响因 素。在分析的基础上，本商业计划书对项目的定位和营销策略组合进行了选择，并对项 目未来的运营情况进行了预估。 本项目预计运作 10 年，初始投资约为 2 亿，主要为机体改造和广告宣传费用。项 目运作后，年运营收入约为 1.758 亿，年运营成本约为 1.261 亿。项目投资回收期 3 年 2 个月，净现值 1.133 亿，项目内部收益率 25.08%大于南航内部资金成本（10%）。根据 敏感性分析，项目在销售收入下滑 8%时，项目的内部收益率与南航内部资金成本持平， 项目风险适中。 结合项目的商业运营和财务分析，得出项目可行的结论。 关键词，南航 铂金航班 商业计划书II Abstract In recent years, round-trip route between Guangzhou and Beijing develop rapidly. During 2005 to 2010, the quantity of the route line's passenger has reached over 15 million, and the average annual growth rate is 5.76%. The quantity of First Class and Business Class passenger has reached 907,500, and the average annual growth rate is 30%. At the same time, the airline has increased the capacity of input in this route due to the rapid development. It results in that the capacity supply is much greater than the tourist demand. In this case, China Southern Airlines has to increase the market share of high-end tourists, in order to improve the quality of the route and enhance Southern high-end brand image. First of all, the business plan of platinum flight projects between Beijing and Guangzhou use the PEST model and the Five Forces Model to analysis the macro and industry environment and the high-end passenger’s behavior characteristics. And then, the business plan analysis the strengths and weaknesses of competitors and China Southern Airlines, considering various impact factors on the project. Finally, the business plan makes the decision of marketing strategy of the project base on the analysis above. This project is expected to operate 10 years, and the initial investment is about ￥200 million mainly for the aircraft modification and advertising costs. After the project Operate, the annual operating revenue is ￥175.8 million, and the annual operating costs is about ￥126.1 million. The payback period of the project is 3 years and 2 months. The net present value is ￥113.3 million. The project internal return rate is 25.08% ,much higher than the internal cost of China Southern Airlines (10%). Through the sensitivity analysis, the project can bear the sales revenue declined 8 percent, and in that case the project's internal return rate is the same as the internal cost of China Southern Airlines. So the risk of the project is moderate.Considering the business operations and financial analysis of the project, the project is feasible conclusion. Keyword: China Southern Airlines/ Platinum Flight/ Business PlanIII 目 录 摘要.................................................................... I Abstract................................................................ II 第一章 绪论.............................................................. 1 1.1 项目背景和研究意义 ................................................1 1.2 文献综述 ..........................................................2 1.2.1 商业计划书...................................................2 1.2.2 PEST 宏观环境分析 ............................................3 1.2.3 波特五力模型.................................................5 1.2.4 SWOT 分析法 ..................................................6 1.2.5 消费者市场行为...............................................6 1.3 研究内容与方法 ....................................................7 1.3.1 研究内容.....................................................7 1.3.2 研究方法.....................................................7 第二章 项目介绍及分析 .................................................... 9 2.1 项目介绍 ..........................................................9 2.1.1 京广线铂金航班项目背景 .......................................9 2.1.2 京广线铂金航班项目基本资料 ..................................11 2.2 项目基本市场环境分析 .............................................11 2.2.1 项目宏观环境分析............................................12 2.2.2 项目行业环境分析............................................16 2.3 京广线高端旅客消费行为分析 .......................................20 2.3.1 高端人群消费行为分析........................................21 2.3.2 一般航线高端旅客消费行为分析................................22 2.3.3 京广航线高端旅客消费行为分析................................25 2.4 京广线主要竞争对手分析 ...........................................27 2.4.1 中国国际航空................................................28IV 2.4.2 海南航空....................................................30 2.5 本章小结 .........................................................32 第三章 南航内部资源能力分析 ............................................. 33 3.1 南航基本情况 .....................................................33 3.2 运作项目的内部资源优势分析 .......................................34 3.2.1 财务资源....................................................35 3.2.2 人力资源....................................................35 3.2.3 基地资源....................................................36 3.3 运作项目的经营能力分析 ...........................................37 3.3.1 营销管理能力................................................37 3.3.2 地面服务能力................................................37 3.3.3 系统支持能力 ................................................39 3.4 运作项目的劣势分析 ...............................................40 3.4.1 品牌形象的区域性特征较强....................................40 3.4.2 服务的区域差异性大..........................................41 3.4.3 市场应变调节缓慢............................................41 3.4.4 北京基地竞争力较弱..........................................41 3.5 本章小结 .........................................................42 第四章 项目定位及经营策略 ............................................... 43 4.1 铂金航班项目定位 .................................................43 4.1.1 市场定位....................................................43 4.1.2 目标客户定位................................................44 4.2 经营策略 .........................................................44 4.2.1 产品策略....................................................44 4.2.2 定价策略....................................................51 4.2.3 渠道策略....................................................51 4.2.4 前期促销策略................................................53 4.3 本章小结 .........................................................54 第五章 项目财务分析及风险评估 ........................................... 55 5.1 项目财务分析 .....................................................55V 5.1.1 项目投资预算................................................55 5.1.2 项目投资收益分析............................................55 5.2 项目风险分析 .....................................................58 5.2.1 项目风险定性分析............................................58 5.2.2 项目风险敏感性分析..........................................59 5.3 本章小结 .........................................................62 结论.................................................................... 63