房地产开发项目的投资额巨大，建设周期长，影响因素多，因而存在着很高的 投资风险。随着房地产市场的逐步规范、竞争会日益激烈，房地产投资者靠侥幸获 取投资成功的机会越来越少。因此在项目的决策阶段，为避免投资的盲目性，越来 越多的房地产投资者把对项目进行的可行性研究作为投资决策的重要依据。 但中国的房地产业己经发展了近二十年，投资前的可行性研究却发展较慢。有 的开发商要么不做可行性研究就盲目投资，要么虽然想做好可行性研究，却因缺少 专业人才或者信息不全、经验不足，所采用的方法和手段不够丰富等，导致所做的 可行性研究误差较大。 本文以丰都县一个具体的房地产项目为例，运用可行性研究的一般理论对项目 的市场背景、项目区域市场状况、项目本身优劣势进行了全面的分析，提出了项目 的市场定位及建设经营方案。在此基础之上，预测本项目经济上是否合理，财务上 是否盈利，从而明确该开发项目是否可行。 在成本和收入的估算中，运用了成本法和市场比较法对该项目的产品价格进行了 预测和比较，为该项目的最终定价准备了科学的依据。 在财务评价中，根据该项目的投资计划以及资金安排表，运用现金流量表、量本 利分析、敏感性分析以及概率分析等数学方法和模型，对该项目的盈利能力、清偿 能力和不确定性进行了中肯的评。 由于楼盘定价是一个重要而又复杂的市场决策，需要权衡各方面的具体情况。 但在实际操作中，决策者容易受市场其他信息的干扰，做出带有较浓主观色彩的决 策。为了使项目价格更符合市场实际，在本可行性研究中利用了可比楼盘量化定价 法和一元线性回归方程确定项目销售价格，意在对市场深入了解和对项目客观把握 的基础上，制定一个合理的市场价格。除此之外，本文对可行性研究的结论进行了 一定的反馈，分析造成误差的实际原因。这样做的目的是为了探求提高可研结论准 确度的具体方法，从而为今后进行房地产开发项目的可行性研究研提供借鉴。 研究结果表明，该花园项目项目的投资是可行的，主要体现在以下方面，一、 在宏观调控的大背景下丰都县房地产市场仍然呈现良好的发展态势。二、与主要竞 争对手相比，该花园项目具有很强的市场竞争能力。三、项目具有良好的经济效益 和很强的抗风险能力。四、项目具有良好的社会效益和环境效益。 随着房地产市场的发展，可行性研究会朝着更加专业化、社会化的方向发展， 因此本文具有一定的实际意义。 关键词，房地产项目，投资分析，可行性研究II ABSTRACT Real estate item involve huge investment, long period, lots of unstable affecting factors and thus big risks. Along with the disciplining of the market and increasingly fiercer rival in this field, developers will have fewer chances to build their success on the basis of luck. Therefore decision stage in item, In order to avoid and reduce the blindness of investment, more and more real estate investors pass the possibility research make policy to provide important basis for the investment. But the real estate of China already through developed to be close to 20 years, investment front of possibility research development compare slowly. Some developer does not do the possibility research for the blindness investment, the other wants to work well the possibility research but lacking in experts, market information and methodology at present market will reasonably lead to errors in feasibility study. This paper taking a program in Fengdou county as example, make use of the general theories of the possibility research to the item of market background, item district market condition, the item good and bad carried on the overall analysis, put forward the market fixed position of the item and project to conduct the item. At this foundation on, forecast the item economy ascend whether in reason, finance ascend whether earnings. Pass the possibility research, should develop whether item can go or not definitely. In the process of estimating the cost and revenue of this item, the author prospects two prices of this item by utilizing two estimate-methods, cost method and market-comparison method, and compares two prices to decide the reasonable data for the financial evaluation of this item. In the process of financial evaluation, according to the investment plan and the fund arrangement forms of this item, the author makes the scientific solutions in the profitability, the solvency and the uncertainty for this item by using some mathematic methods and models, for example, the cash-flow form, the quantity-capital-interest model, the sensitivity analysis and the possibility analysis. Because the building dish list price is an importance but again complicated markets decision, need to weigh concrete circumstance that everyone face. But in actual operation, the decision maker is interference by other information of market easily, doing to take the decision of have the thicker subjective color. For making the item price even matchIII the market actual, in the decision of sale price, we use comparable quantitative price-setting method and two place linear regression equation. idea at to thorough understanding of market and to the item foundation of objective confidence up, dzaw up a reasonable of market price. In addition, this text carries on the certain feedback to the conclusion that possibility study, the analysis results in actual reason of the error margin. Purpose of do like this is for investigating the concrete method that the accurate degree of conclusion can be advanced, thus grind to provide to draw lessons from for the possibility research that the aftertime carries on the real estate development item. The study shows that the investment of the garden project is feasible. it is embodied by the followings: First, under the situation of macro adjustment, the real estate market in Fengdou County still has an excellent state; Second, contrast to the main competitors, the garden project has a strong advantage; Thirdly, this project can bring a good economic effect and it is anti-risky. Fourthly, this project is socially effected and good to environment. Along with the development of the real estate market, the possibility research meeting toward wear more professional turn, acculturation of direction development, so this paper certainly have actual meaning. Keywords，Project in real estate, Investment analysis, Feasibility studyIV 目 录 摘要..................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.......................................................................................................................II 1 绪 论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 问题提出的背景.......................................................................................................1 1.1.1 房地产行业背景 ...............................................................................................1 1.1.2 项目背景............................................................................................................2 1.2 国内外相关理论发展和研究状况...........................................................................2 1.2.1 国外项目可行性研究与评价的发展 ...............................................................2 1.2.2 国内项目可行性研究与评价的发展 ...............................................................3 1.3 报告的主要研究内容及结构安排...........................................................................4 1.3.1 研究内容............................................................................................................4 1.3.2 报告结构安排 ...................................................................................................4 2 房地产项目投资分析和可行性研究方法 .....................................................................6 2.1 房地产项目可行性研究与投资分析的内容...........................................................6 2.2 地产项目经济评价的基本理论...............................................................................7 3 房地产项目市场分析 ...................................................................................................10 3.1 重庆市房地产市场概况.........................................................................................10 3.2 相邻周边区县市场概况.........................................................................................1