在中国物流产业适应经济发展“新常态”以及基于珠三角产业梯级转移和物流业升 级转型、网络化布局的大背景下，抓住“广清一体化”的产业融合及转移对接的有力时机， 依托广州市、珠三角雄厚的物流产业基础，在清远市选址、规划、建设服务于珠江三角 洲的物流枢纽项目，在项目定位上符合华南区域物流行业发展规律，在项目建设上符合 国家、地方经济物流产业发展的方向和趋势，具有服务创新、产业高端集聚、网络化运 作为特征的物流产业发展平台功能，将为广州市、清远市物流业发展提供较好的发展空 间和资源重新整合的机会，有利于广州、清远两地物流业的细分工、调结构、上台阶， 对集聚物流产业和为其他产业发展提供良好供应链物流环境具有重要战略作用，有利于 提升广东省物流业发展水平，项目建设十分必要。 QY 物流枢纽项目选址于 QY 市，占地 1500 亩，规划建设总面积 91.24 万平方米， 计划总投资超过 30 亿元。项目由 GB 集团、HY 物流、中国仓储协会强强联合，共同发 起，组织一批国际国内知名物流企业共同打造。QY 物流枢纽项目可行性研究全面、系 统、完整地展现物流枢纽项目开发策划、立项、论证评估、投资决策、实施、考核和后 评估的流程，重点研究战略定位、选址布局、商业模式、风险管控等问题，系统分析项 目业务可行性、经济可行性、技术可行性、风险管控可行性，从而确立项目的商业模式、 开发模式、合作模式、运营模式、盈利模式，综合评估项目的市场价值、投资价值、开 发价值和战略价值。既有科学理论支撑，也有具体操作支持，更有落地实施指导，为物 流同行大项目开发提供了极具参考价值的成功蓝本。 QY 物流枢纽项目地理位置优越、综合交通发达，选址符合广州市、清远市两地政 府对物流发展的战略布局，且体量大、运作模式新，具有长远投资价值，投资收益测算 数据表明，项目投资收益率为 12.42%，还款期为 19 年，动态投资回收期为 20 年，基 本符合 GB 集团对重资产投资管理的相关规定，项目有一定的盈利能力、偿债能力、抗 风险能力，在财务上是可行的。 关键词，物流枢纽；可行性；商业模式；物流地产II Abstract Logistics industry to adapt to the economic development in China new normal, based on the pearl river delta industrial cascade transfer and transform and upgrade the logistics industry, under the background of network layout, seize the wide integration of the industrial convergence and strong time transfer docking, relying on guangzhou and the pearl river delta logistics industry base, abundant in qingyuan city site selection, planning and construction services in the pearl river delta logistics hub project, on the project location in south China regional logistics industry development rule, in line with national and local economy on the project construction direction and trend of logistics industry development, with high-end service innovation, the industry agglomeration, network operation for the characteristics of logistics industry development platform function, to guangzhou, qingyuan city logistics industry development provides a good development space and resources integration, is advantageous to the logistics industry in guangzhou, qingyuan, fine division of labor, structural adjustment, up the steps, the agglomeration of logistics industry and the development of other industry supply chain logistics environment has an important strategic role, is conducive to enhance the level of logistics industry development in guangdong province and project construction is necessary. QY logistics hub project selected location in the city of QY, covers an area of 1500 mu, planning a total area of 912400 square meters, planning a total investment of more than 3 billion yuan. Project by GB group combination, HY logistics, China storage association, jointly sponsored, organize a group of famous international and domestic logistics enterprises built together. QY logistics hub project feasibility study of comprehensive, system, fully show the logistics hub project development planning, project, after the evaluation, investment decision-making, implementation, evaluation and assessment process, focuses on strategic orientation, site selection, layout, business model, risk control, the system analysis of project feasibility, economic feasibility, technical feasibility, business risk control feasibility of establishing project business model, development mode, cooperation mode, operation mode, profit model, the market value of the comprehensive evaluation of project, the investment value, development value and strategic value. Has both scientific theory support, and specific operation support, implementation of landing guidance, for logistics industry big development provides a great reference value on success. QY logistics hub project selected location in the city of QY, covers an area of 1500 mu, planning a total area of 912400 square meters, planning a total investment of more than 3III billion yuan. Project by GB group combination, HY logistics, China storage association, jointly sponsored, organize a group of famous international and domestic logistics enterprises built together. QY logistics hub project feasibility study of comprehensive, system, fully show the logistics hub project development planning, project, after the evaluation, investment decision-making, implementation, evaluation and assessment process, focuses on strategic orientation, site selection, layout, business model, risk control, the system analysis of project feasibility, economic feasibility, technical feasibility, business risk control feasibility of establishing project business model, development mode, cooperation mode, operation mode, profit model, the market value of the comprehensive evaluation of project, the investment value, development value and strategic value. Has both scientific theory support, and specific operation support, implementation of landing guidance, for logistics industry big development provides a great reference value on success. Key Words: Logistics hub, feasibility, business model, logistics estateIV 目 录 摘要.I ABSTRACT.II 图目录.VII 表格目录..VIII 第一章 绪论.1 1.1 研究背景..1 1.1.1 国家经济发展及物流行业政策.1 1.1.2 珠三角经济发展及物流一体化进程.....1 1.1.3 当地政府推动物流产业战略布局...2 1.1.4 发起企业现代物流升级转型需要...2 1.2 研究意义..3 1.2.1 从经营企业角度.3 1.2.2 从行业研究角度.4 1.2.3 从物流经济角度.4 1.3 研究目的..4 1.3.1 企业内部投资决策前论证流程需要.....4 1.3.2 向政府发改部门申请项目立项需要.....6 1.3.3 项目投融资的需要...6 1.4 文献综述..6 1.4.1 物流枢纽发展综述...6 1.4.2 国际物流园区研究现状.7 1.4.3 国内物流园区研究现状.8 1.4.4 国内先进成熟的物流新模式不断涌现.8 1.4.5 国内外综合物流枢纽园区案例总结...10 1.5 研究方法、研究内容及技术路径..11 1.6 本章小结12 第二章 项目概况...13 2.1 项目名称及投资规模....13V 2.2 项目交通及选址分析....13 2.3 政府指标及落户条件....16 2.4 本章小结17 第三章 QY 项目区域经济与物流需求分析..18 3.1 珠三角经济总量与物流总费用占比分析..18 3.2 珠三角物流基础设施建设分析18 3.3 珠三角物流业发展定位及发展方向分析..19 3.4 珠三角物流产业合作发展前景分析....21 3.5 项目市场机会分析..22 3.6 项目物流总量支撑分析23 3.7 项目周边竞争态势分析24 3.8 项目主要业态支撑分析25 3.9 本章小结31 第四章 项目定位规划及商业模式.....32 4.1 项目战略32 4.2 项目定位33 4.2.1 项目策略.....35 4.2.2 建设重点.....36 4.3 项目规划38 4.3.1 项目功能组合...38 4.3.2 项目规划设计...39 4.3.3 项目物业设计...40 4.3.4 项目绿色环保...43 4.4 项目商业模式....44 4.5 本章小结46 第五章 项目财务测算及经济评价.....48 5.1 基础数据选取....48 5.2 项目投资与收入估算....49 5.3 项目投资损益及财务评价..53 5.3.1 项目投资损益表.....53VI 5.3.2 项目主要财务指标.56 5.3.3 项目敏感性分析.....56 5.3.4 项目财务评价结论.57 5.4 项目融资方案....57 5.5 本章小结58 第六章 项目风险与防范措施.60 6.1 政策风险及防范措施....60 6.2 合作方风险及防范措施60 6.3 资金风险及防范措施....61 6.4 招商运营风险及防范措施..61 6.5 法律风险及防范措施....62 6.6 工程风险及防范措施....62 6.7 市场风险及防范措施....63 6.8 经营风险及防范措施....63 6.9 土地风险及防范措施....64 6.10 本章小结....64 结 论.....66