摘要 在传统的房地产开发过程中,往注重依靠项目经理或者各部门工作人员 的个人经验,对房地产项目的可行性研究基本不重视,没有设计更多的可行 性方案来评价和比选,一旦项目经理变动或者各部门工作人员变动,项目的 进展变得异常困难。 随着房地产市场政策不断变动,房地产开发成本和收益以及面临的风险 不断变化,整个行业的竞争越来越激烈。房地产开发商也逐步认识到只有在 拿地、修建前进行详细的可行性研究,才能适应当前房地产严酷的竞争中获 取较好的投资机会和回报。 一个成功的房地产项目,关键在于前期的决策。决策又需要准确科学的 进行分析和预测,所以房地产项目可行性分析具有非常重要的意义。房地产 资金需求大、开发时间长、期间具有较多的不确定性等因素,要求了房地产 项目必须在开发前进行可行性研究。一个可行性研究就是将该项目的市场调 研、项目定位、开发计划、财务运作、销售管理等进行全方位的论证,分析 中间可能影响的因素,保证项目能投资成功。近年来是房地产行业随着限购、 税收等多项国家政策打压,中国的房地产市场已经不像以前有地可建、有房 可卖就能获利。随着中国房地产市场陆续受到的打压,购房者持币观望,销 售困难,价格下行,房地产企业的贷款也遇到阻碍,在目前的环境下,房地 产企业进行严谨、科学的房地产投资分析就更加重要。 本文的研究是从项目可行性研究旳基本理论入手,利用真实案例,通过 对成都郫县S房地产项目的可行性研究分析论证中发现的问题,提出建议及 意见。整篇文章的分析思路能为房地产企业在进行可行性研究时提供参考和 借鉴。作者作为资方参与了该项目投资相关工作,在该项目所在区域市场进 行了长时间调查并获取大量相关资料。通过实际项目分析,力图探讨在房地 1 成都S房地产项目可行性研究 产项目开发中如何运用可行性研究这种系统科学的综合性管理方法,了解它 要完成什么内容,有哪些方法和程序,以达到怎样的目标。 首先,本文对房地产幵发程序进行了简要的描述,介绍了房地产可行性 研究的含义与研究阶段、原则与依据、房地产可行性研究包含的主要内容和 可行性报告写作步骤;然后,介绍了房地产可行性研究中两个比较重要的问 题,房地产项目的定位、财务评价;最后,以成都s房地产项目为范例进行 可行性分析,包括项目概况和投资环境分析、项目的定位和营销策略分析、 项目的投资分析和财务评价。 关键词:房地产行业房地产市场房地产项目可行性研究 2 Abstract Abstract The experience of the program manager or the staff in the project is more important than the feasibility study in traditional development of real estate. The property developers almost take no account of the feasibility research of real estate, much less carry out sort of feasibility plan that helps the property developer evaluate and select better methods. Once the problem of personnel changes occurs, the development of the real estate pogi'am would be extremely diffcult. The costs and gains of real estate development are constantly changing because of property policy's continual change or adjusement, as competition in the real estate market gets more and more intense. Property developers are coming to realize that if they must adapt to the competitive marketplace to win the chance to obtain profit, the detailed feasibility study is necessary before accessing to land and construction. Central to real estate project' success is the preliminary decision-making. Decision-making has to be supported by the scientific analysis and predicition, so the real estate feasible analysis is of important significance. Due to realty investment has the characteristics of large funds, long period and many destabilizing factors, feasibility study is neccessary for real estate project before decision-making period. The feasibility study of real estate project is based on all-side materials including markting research,project positioning.developemnt planning.financial operation,sales management.,ect, which also analyses all the possible factors to guarantee the success of an investment. In recent years, according to the effect of home-purchase restriction、tax policies and other related national policies, the real estate in China can not make an easy profit by land business or home sales any more. The real estate markets are subject to varying degrees of pressure, housing buyers keep money and stand-by resulting in home sales difficulties and price drop, in the meantime, real estate enterprise meet The feasibility study of the Chengdu S project difficulties in loans. Therefore, under the present circumstances, rigorous scientific real estate investment analysis is more important. This article starts from the basic theory about feasibility study, demonstrating some iusses or suggestions based on feasibity study analysis of a real case, the project in Chengdu Pi county. The meaning of this thesis lies in providing the reference to the real estate enterprise as they carry out the feasibilty study. The writer, involved in project as staff member of takeholders, was a participant in the project to do investment research. The large amount data and information is obtained through his long time research and study in the project area market. The writer attempts to explore an integrated management approach to how to use the systematic feasibility study in the development of real estate project by analysing the actual project,find out the content,method,procedure and the goal of the feasibility study. Firstly,this article gives a brief description of the development process of real estate,whcih includes the meaning.the procedure.the principle and basis,common mistakes and effective countermeasure.the content and the writing process of the feasibity study. And then, it introduces two key problems in real estate feasibility study which are real estate project positioning and financial appraisal. Finally, with S project, for example, the writer introduces the concrete operation mode and the content of feasibility study analysis by analysing the S project feasilibility. Keywords: The Real Estate Industry; Real Estate Market; Real Estate Project; Feasibility Study 2 目录 目录 1 W 1 1.1研究背景 1 1.2研究意义 2 1.3技术路线、篇章结构和研究方法 3 1.3.1技术路线 3 1.3.2篇章结构 4 1.3.3研究方法 4 1.4本文的贡献和局限性 4 2房地产项目可行性研究基础理论 6 2.1房地产项目可行性研究概述 6 2.1.1房地产开发程序简述 6 2.1.2房地产可行性研究的阶段、原则和依据 7 2.1.3房地产可行性研究的内容 8 2.1.4房地产项目可行性研究报告的编写步骤 10 2.2房地产项目的市场定位 11 2.2.1房地产项目市场定位的程序与内容 11 2.2.2房地产项目市场定位的基本原则 13 2.2.3房地产项目市场定位需要注意的问题 14 2.3房地产项目的财务评价 15 2.3.1静态评价指标 15 2.3.2动态评价指标 16 3成都S项目概况和投资环境分析 19 成都S房地产项目可行性研究 3.1项g概况 19 3.1.1项目背景 19 3.1.2项目主要经济技术指标 20 3.2项目的投资环境分析 21 3.2.1成都市宏观经济环境分析 21 3.2.2成都市201]年房地产市场发展概况分析 23 3.2.3项目所处市场调研情况 31 3.2.4项目地块分析 34 4成都S项目的定位和营销策略分析 36 4.1项目初步定位和建筑风格 36 4.1.1项目初步定位 36 4.1.2建筑风格 38 4.2项目SWOT分析 38 4.2.1 优势 38 4.2.2 劣势 39 4.2.3 机会 39 4.2.4 挑战 40 4.2.5分析结论 40 4.3项目整体建设进度计划 41 4.4项目整体组合营销策略 42 4.4.1营销和推广 42 4.4.2项目销售进度 43 5成都S项目的投资分析和财务评价 47 5.1项目投资测算 47 5.1.1投资总额与构成 47 5.1.2项目建安成本明细构成 48 5.2资金筹措计划 49 5.2.1项目资金来源 49 2 目 录 5.2.2资金筹措平衡表 49 5.3项目现金流量表测算 49 5.4财务评价 51 5.4.1则务指标测算依据及评价指标选择 51 5.4.2项目预期销售收入、成本与利润 52 5.5项目风险评估 53 5.6项目可行性研究结论 54 6结论与展望 56 6.1结论 56 6.2研究的局限性和展望 57