可行性研究是项目投资决策之前,运用多种科学工具对项目进行综合性技术 和经济论证的一种科学方法它是一个企业(或项目)能提高成功率减少失误的 重要途径,特别是在当前市场形势变化莫测和国家宏观调控日趋严厉的情况下, 在项目建设前进行细致!全面地可行性分析,能够规避可能出现的各种不确定性 情况,从而相应的降低风险,提高成功的可能;因此,在项目建设前应该注重可 行性研究 本文的第一章为项目可行性研究理论综述.该部分对项目可行性研究的主要 内容!财务评价方法!项目不确定性分析等理论进行了详细介绍第二章到第七 章为鲁西化工50万吨氨碱项目可行性分析报告该部分运用项目可行性研究的 理论与方法,结合市场调研,系统地对50万吨氨碱项目的可行性进行了多方面 的分析,第二章是对项目及项目建设人的介绍,第三章是对化肥市场的分析和预 测,第四章是对项目建设人鲁西化工公司的市场竞争力的分析,第五章是对项目 的财务分析,第六章是对项目建设过程的分析,第七章是对项目建设风险的分析 通过比较!分析!论证,文章最后得出了鲁西化工50万吨氯碱项目切实可行的 结论 关键词:可行性研究氨碱项目财务分析企业竞争力 不确定性分析Feasibilitystudyof500thousandstonsAmmonia一Alkali Projeetoflu一westehemiealGrouP AbstraCt Feasibilitystudy15aseientifiemethod,whiehaimsatmakingasurveyofeeonomythrough quiteafewseientifleaPproaehesbeforethedeeisionandinvestmentoftheProjeet.It15an imPortantwaythatenterpriseeanenhaneethesueeessratioandredueefault,sPeeiallyinthe situationsofctirrentmarketsituationunPredietableandmaeroeeono面eregulationandeonirol severelydaybyday,CarryingonthefeasibilityanalysisearefullyandeomPrehensivelybeforethe projectgonstruction,candodgeeachkindofuncertaintysituationwhichpossiblyappears, corresPondinglyredueetheriskandenhaneethesuecessfulPossibillty:Therefore,enterprise shouldPaygreatattentiontothefeasibilltystudybeforetheProjeeteonstruction4 ThefistPart15asummarizationofthetheoriesaboutfeasibilitystudyuPoneonstruetion Projeet.T垃5PartintrodueestheimPortanteontent,thernethodoffinaneialevaluationandtherisk analysisaboutfeasibilltystudyindetail.TheseeondParttotheseventhPartarethecaseof500 thousandstonsAmmonia一ka.llprojeetoflu一westehemiealGroup.Thispartmakesuseofthe theoriesandmethodsofProjectfeasibilitystudy,eombiningwithmarketinganalysis,to systematieallyanalyzethefeasibilityofC扭orine一AlkallProjeetinallresPeets.ThesecondPart15 abouttheintroduetionoftheProjectandtheProjecteonstruetion,thethirdPart15aboutthe PredietionofthemarketsuPPliesanddemands,thefoUrthPart15aboutthemarketeomPetitionof theProjectconstruetion,thefifthPart15abouttheProjeetfinaneialestimation,thesixthPart15 abouttheProjeetdesignsolutionandtheProjeeteonstruetionProeess,theseventhPart15aboutthe Projectriskanalysis.ThrougheomParison,analysisandreasoning,thisartielefinallygaineda conelusionthatlu一westehemiealGrouPinvestsinAmmonia一AlkallProjeet15manipulability andtheProfitwillbegreat. KEYwORDS:feasibilltystudy:A爪monia一Alkall:financialevaluation;Ente甲rise eomPetitivePower:riskanalysis. 丫目录 0绪论....................................................................................1 0.1选题的依据与意义...................................................,.......................................1 0.2理论综述..............................................................................................................1 0.3技术路线.................................................................,.......................................3 0.4研究方法.......................................................,..................................................4 0.5研究内容...............................................................................................................4 0.6可能的创新点...................,.......,.................................................................5 1关于项目可行性研究的理论综述....................................6 1.1可行性研究的理论分析........................................................................................6 1.1.1司.行性研究的定义........,....................................................................6 1.1.2可行性研究的阶段划分............................................................................6 二1二1.3可行性研究报告的主要内容...................................................................7 1.2项目财务评估与预测理论概述...........................................................................10 1.2.1项目投资估算..........................................................................#4#10 1.2.2项目资金筹措,...........................................................#1 1.2,3项目的财务预测....................................,.....#...111 1.2.4项目财务分析.................................................................................#.12 1.3项目不确定性分析及项目方案选择理论概述...........................................;..13 1.3.1项目不确定性分析......................................,...#13 1.3.2项目方案评价..............................................................................;.#巧 2鲁西化工50万吨氨碱项目介绍.......;......................16 2.1鲁西化工有限公司的介绍..............................................................,..............16 2.2鲁西化工50万吨氨碱项目介绍................,..................................................17 3化肥市场分析..............................................................19 3.1国内外化肥市场的整体分析............................................................................19 3.2尿素!甲醇市场需求及预测分析........................................................................21 4项目建设人的市场竞争力分析......................................25 4.1化肥行业整体分析............................................................#25 4.2鲁西化工的市场竞争力分析..............................................................................26 5财务分析.............!......................................................30 5.1鲁西化工公司的财务状况分析...........................................................................30 5.2项目本身的财务预测及分析..............................................................................34 6项目建设过程分析..........................................................39 6.1原料及燃料供应分析二,.......................................................#39 6.2厂址方案和建设条件分析........................................................................!..40 了6.3环保问题分析.............................................................................................,..41 7风险分析..........................................................................42 7.1政府监管与宏观政策变动风险................................................................;...,42 7.2原材料供应不足!价格上涨及运力不足的风险................................................42 7.3行业竞争和市场竞争的风险...............................................................................43 7.4环境保护的风险...................................................................................................44 7.5国际市场竞争的风险...........................................................................................44 8结论..................................................................................46