分类号： 密 级：
UDC:单位代码：10078
华北水利水电大学专业硕士学位论文
期货交割仓库违约风险防控研究
A Research on the Risk Prevention of
Futures Delivery Warehouse Default
研究生姓名： 潘春萌
指导教师：马歆教授赵文广高级经济师
专业名称：工商管理
所在 学 院： 管理与经济学院
2018年5月
摘要
I
期货交割仓库违约风险防控研究
摘 要
期货市场具有价格发现和套期保值两大基本功能。期货交割是连接期现货市场的重
要桥梁，对保障价格发现、套期保值功能作用发挥至关重要。作为期货交割的重要载体，
期货交割仓库在促进期货市场发挥功能作用方面举足轻重
近年来，中国经济进入新常态，增速小幅回落，经济结构不断优化升级，宏观调控
目标也从 “保增长”逐步向“稳增长，调结构”转变。受宏观经济影响，部分期货交
割仓库业务发展缓慢，生产经营困难，经济利润明显下滑，违约风险逐渐增加。2008
年以来，期货交割仓库盗卖现货货物和期货仓单货物等风险事件时有发生。个别交割仓
库的违法行为，不但严重影响了期货行业的信誉，也对期货市场运行产生了不良影响
基于此背景，分析总结风险事件的原因和教训，加强交割仓库管理则显得十分迫切和重
要
本文从我国交割仓库监督管理现状出发，首先科学划分了交割仓库违约风险的种
类，并深入剖析了国内近年发生的仓储风险事件；其次从交割仓库内部管理及期货交易
所监管两方面，对造成交割仓库风险的原因进行了研究；第三，针对存在的交割仓库违
约风险，提出了建立期货标准仓单登记公示平台、建立交割仓库等级评定制度、引入物
联网监控技术、设立集团式交割仓库、引入会员单位参与交割监管等一整套防控方案
此外，针对我国法律法规对期货交割仓单、中央对手方等定位不清晰的现状，从法律层
面给出了完善交割仓库风险防控的建议
关键词：交割仓库；风险管理；层次分析法；等级评定；公示平台
ABSTRACT
III
A Research on the Risk Prevention of
Futures Delivery Warehouse Default
ABSTRACT
Futures market has two functions including price discovery and risk hedging. Futures
delivery is an important bridge connecting the spot and futures market, and is important for
the functioning of price discovery and risk hedging. As an important vehicle for futures
delivery, futures delivery warehouses are key to improve the functioning of futures market.
In recent years, China’s economy is stepping into a new norm, the growth rate is slightly
declining while improvement on economic structure is upgrading, the goal of macroeconomic
control is also transitioning from the initial “growth guarantee” to “growth stabilization and
structural adjustment”. As being affected by the macroeconomic dynamics, some futures
delivery warehouses now face slowing down of business development and difficulties in
production operation, financial profits is slipping and default risk is gradually increasing.
Since 2008, breaches of futures delivery warehouse such as selling spot and futures delivery
goods without authorization have been recurring, which affects the credibility of futures
industry as well as the functioning of futures market.With the above background, it is
propelling and important to strengthen risk management on delivery warehouses, and analyze
reasons and lessons of risk events.
This essay starts from the status quo of current regulation and supervision of delivery
warehouses, profiles scientifically the risks associated with warehouse defaults, and historic
warehouse risk events; researches on the internal control and exchange supervision of
warehouses that are related to risk factors; and then proposes to establish a bulletin platform
for warehouse registration, and set up rating system for warehouses, to mitigate default risks
of delivery warehouses; proposes a series of solutions which suggest to firmly control large
product delivery, introducing web of things monitoring technology, set up group futures
delivery warehouses, let members to participate in warehouse surveillance etc.; lastly, to
specifically solve the ambiguity of regulation on futures deliver warehouse receipt and central
counter party, proposes suggestions on the control of warehouse default risk from a legal point
of view.
KEY WORDS: Delivery warehouse; risk management; Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) ;
rating; bulletin platform。