I
摘 要
重庆AS公司是由重庆SS集团投资控股的一家广告文印包装印刷公司，公司成
立2001年，在10多年的发展中，利用背靠重庆SS集团的优势下，积极拓展市场，
在商品标签印刷、商品包装纸箱以及商品礼品盒生产和商务宣传广告册页设计和印刷
上具有了一定竞争能力，同时企业规模也在不断扩大。但是，近年来伴随整个行业市
场环境的变化，竞争日趋激烈。AS公司也无法独善其身，其盈利能力逐年下滑。虽
然还没有走到亏损的地步，但财务风险问题不断显现，因此必须加强对财务风险的有
效控制。而要做好财务风险控制，对财务风险的预警就显得至关重要。通过财务风险
预警，可以帮助公司及时发现在公司运行过程中可能存在的财务风险，对财务风险产
生的原因进行分析，能够在其尚未造成实际损失时，公司经营管理者及时措施，避免
给公司带来危机，以推动公司经营活动的正常运行
本文运用文献研究和调查研究法以及定性和定量结合的方法，在大量查阅国内
外对于财务风险预警模型的相关研究和实践，在此基础上提出了构建财务风险预警模
型的基本思路与初步构思。同时在构建模型中，对于预警指标以及权重确定上，为了
找到适合重庆AS公司的指标和权重，对公司领导以及行业财务专家进行了调研，在
调研基础上利用层次分析法确定了具体指标和权重
具体说来，本文在写作上首先对本文选择题的背景以及研究意义进行了分析，然
后对国内外对财务风险预警的相关研究和实践进行了综述，同时进行了文献述评。然
后在此基础上提出了本文的基本研究思路和基本方向。然后在第二部分中，对论文写
作中所要涉及到的相关理论进行了分析。对财务风险的基本理论，财务风险预警的相
关理论，以及预警模型建立的方法等进行了分析。第三部分是结合重庆AS公司具体
案例，对公司财务风险来源进行了分析，然后对其现有风险预警管理现状分析，找到
其中存在的问题。由此提出在AS公司建立财务风险预警的必要性。第四部分就是构
建重庆AS公司财务风险预警模型，从指标体系的构建出发到模型的具体构建以及结
合公司实际财务数据进行测验来验证模型的可行性以及实际效果。最后提出模型建立
的相关保障措施，并提出相应建议。通过对AS公司财务风险预警的研究，希望为类
似企业起到一个有益的借鉴
关键词：重庆AS公司，财务风险，财务风险预警，模糊综合评价
III
Abstract
Chongqing AS Corporation is an advertising literary packaging and printing company
which was invested and controlled by Chongqing SS Group. The company was established
in 2001. During the development of more than 10 years, it used the advantage of relying on
Chongqing SS Group to actively expand its market, printing on commodity labels,
Commercial packaging cartons, merchandise gift boxes for production and business
promotional advertising albums have a certain degree of competitiveness in the design and
printing, and the scale of the company has also been expanding. However, in recent years,
with the changes in the market environment of the entire industry, competition has become
increasingly fierce. AS company also can not be independent, its profitability declines year
by year. Although it has not yet reached the point of loss, financial risk issues continue to
show up, so we must strengthen the effective control of financial risks. In order to control
the financial risks, the early warning of financial risks is crucial. Through the financial risk
warning, it can help the company to discover the possible financial risks in the company's
operation process timely, analyze the causes of financial risks, and when it has not caused
any actual loss, the company’s business managers can take some measures timely to avoid
the company come to crisis, and in this way to promote the normal operation of the
company's business activities.
This article uses the literature research and investigation methods as well as the
qualitative and quantitative combination method, in a large number of domestic and
foreign review of the financial risk early warning model of relevant research and practice,
on this basis putonghua forward the basic ideas and initial ideas for the construction of
financial risk early warning model. At the same time, in the construction model, in order to
find out the indicators and weights which are suitable for Chongqing AS company in terms
of early warning indicators and weight determination, the company’s leaders and industry
financial experts were investigated. Based on the investigation, the specific indicators and
weights were determined by using the analytic hierarchy process.
Specifically, firstly, this article analyzes the background and significance of the
multiple-choice questions. Then it reviews the related research and practice of financial
risk early warning both at home and abroad, and at the same time carries on the literature
IV
to summarize. On this basis, the basic research ideas and basic directions of this paper are
put forward. Then in the second part, the relevant theories involved in thesis writing are
analyzed. The basic theory of financial risk, the related theory of financial risk early
warning, and the method of establishing the early warning model were analyzed. The third
part is to analyze the source of the company's financial risk in combination with the
concrete case of Chongqing AS company, and then analyze the existing status of its risk
early warning management and find out the existing problems. This raises the need for AS
companies to establish early warning of financial risks. The fourth part is to construct
Chongqing AS company financial risk early warning model, starting from the construction
of index system to the concrete construction of the model and combining the company's
actual financial data to test to verify the feasibility and actual effect of the model. Finally,
the relevant safeguard measures established by the model are proposed and corresponding
suggestions are made. Through the research on the AS company's financial risk early
warning, we hope to play a useful reference for similar companies.
Keywords: Chongqing AS company, financial risks, early warning of financial risks,
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
V
目 录
摘 要 ......I
ABSTRACT .. III
目 录 .... V
1 绪论 ... 1
1.1研究背景和意义 ... 1
1.1.1研究背景 ......... 1
1.1.2研究意义 ......... 2
1.2国内外研究现状 ... 2
1.2.1国外研究综述 . 2
1.2.2国内研究综述 . 4
1.2.3研究述评6
1.3 论文研究方法和论文基本框架 .... 7
1.3.1 论文研究方法 ... 7
1.3.2论文研究路线和基本框架 ..... 7
2 相关理论基础 ........... 9
2.1 财务风险的内涵、分类及特征 .... 9
2.1.1 风险与财务风险含义 ... 9
2.1.2财务风险类型 .... 9
2.1.3财务风险特征 .. 10
2.2 财务风险预警的概念及功能 ...... 11
2.2.1 财务风险预警的概念 . 11
2.2.2财务风险预警的功能 .. 11
2.2.3 财务风险预警模型构建方法 . 12
2.3财务风险预警的其他相关理论 ... 12
2.3.1系统非优理论 .. 12
2.3.2危机管理理论 .. 13
2.3.3策略震撼管理理论 ...... 13
2.3.4企业诊断理论 .. 13
3 重庆AS公司现有财务风险预警管理现状及问题 ......... 15。