Table of Contents Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3 Introduction..................................................................................................................4 2004 in review.................................................................................... 5 Advertising update: 2005 .................................................................. 9 Macro economic outlook.............................................................................................9 Forecasting global adspend growth 2005 .................................................................10 European adspend.....................................................................................................11 Conclusions on the 2005 adspend outlook ...............................................................14 Sector valuation............................................................................... 15 Historical trading multiples ........................................................................................15 Cash returns...............................................................................................................16 Price/earnings to growth ‘PE/g’ multiples .................................................................20 Reverse DCF analysis ................................................................................................21 CROCI values analysis ...............................................................................................21 Trough multiples analysis – What’s my downside? ..................................................23 Valuation conclusion ..................................................................................................24 Publishing......................................................................................... 26 Themes for 2005?......................................................................................................26 Top pick Reuters (Buy TP 455p) ................................................................................27 Agencies & marketing services ...................................................... 29 A review of the themes for 2005?.............................................................................29 Top pick: WPP Buy (TP 725p)....................................................................................30 Broadcasters .................................................................................... 32 A review of the themes for 2005?.............................................................................32 Top pick Mediaset (Buy TP E11)................................................................................35 Appendix A: Analysis of FY04 multiple revisions by stock .......... 36 Appendix B: Where does DB’s EPS differ from consensus? ........ 37 Appendix C: Potential M&A............................................................ 38 Appendix D: Currency risk .............................................................. 40 Currency.....................................................................................................................40 Appendix E: Global Agency adspend estimates 2004-5............... 42 Appendix F: Preliminary Results Timetable 2005 ......................... 43 www.m448中国最大的资料库下载