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文本描述
Commodity Quant Strategy
23 February 2018
globalmarkets.bnpparibas2
Charts 1-3; XAU model, error bands, and market divergence
500
800
1,100
1,400
1,700
500
800
1,100
1,400
1,700
200720092011201320152017
Model Band
Market
Model Central
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
May-14Jul-15Sep-16Nov-17Jan-19
Model BandMarket
Model CentralProjected
ConsensusZoom
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
0.5%
-15%
-6%
3%
12%
21%
200720092011201320152017
Difference between
market and model
Cheap; buy
Rich;Sell
Source: Bloomberg LLP; BNP Paribas; Update as of 5 July 2018
This document has been written by our Strategist and Economist teams within the BNP Paribas group of companies (collectively
“BNPP”); it does not purport to be an exhaustive analysis, and may be subject to conflicts of interest resulting from their interaction
with sales and trading which could affect the objectivity of this report. This document is non-independent research for the purpose of
the UK Financial Conduct Authority rules.For the purposes of the recast Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (2014/65/EU)
(MiFID II), non-independent research constitutes a marketing communication. This document is not investment research for the
purposes of MiFID II. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to provide the independence of
investment research, and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
The content in this document/communication may also contain “Research” as defined under the MiFID II unbundling rules. If the
document/communication contains Research, it is intended for those firms who are either in scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules
and have signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research packages, or firms that are out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling
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do not view or use the Research content in this document if your firm has not signed up to one of the BNPP Global Markets Research
packages, except where your firm is out of scope of the MiFID II unbundling rules.
STEER is a trade mark of BNPP.
This document constitutes a marketing communication and has been prepared by BNPP for, and is directed at, (a) Professional Clients and
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The information and opinions contained in this document have been obtained from, or are based on, public sources believed to be reliable, but
there is no guarantee of the accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purpose of such information and such information may not have
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