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iii
Preface
Korean unification is a major issue in both South Korea (officially
the Republic of Korea) and North Korea (officially the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea). Given the substantial uncertainties about
Korea’s future, there are a wide variety of paths by which unification
might occur, if it occurs. This report is an analysis of potential avenues
to unification. The author identifies nine alternatives, analyzes them,
and recommends actions that South Korea and the United States can
take to follow a more favorable path.
This research was sponsored by the Korea Foundation and con-
ducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of
the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD con-
ducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense,
the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the defense agen-
cies, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S.
Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations.
For more information on the RAND International Security and
Defense Policy Center, see /nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp or
contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage).
v
Contents
Preface .....iii
Tables ......vii
Summary ..ix
Acknowledgments ..xiii
Abbreviations .........xv
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ...........1
What Does Unification Mean ...2
The Purpose of This Report ......3
Methodology ...........8
Organization of This Report ....12
CHAPTER TWO
Potential Unification Challenges .........13
North Korean Weapons of Mass Destruction........14
Other North Korean Military Forces......16
Reduced Size and Readiness of the Active-Duty ROK Army...18
Inadequate Training of ROK Army Reserve Forces .20
Slow Deployment of U.S. Forces to Korea21
Inadequate ROK Planning for a Replacement Government in
North Korea .....22
Chinese Intervention in North Korea .....23
Conclusions ...........27。