。Contents INTRODUCTION ...... 4 SUMMARY ......... 7 TELEVISION ........ 8 RADIO10 CONSUMER PRESS .... 12OUTDOOR ......... 15 CINEMA ........... 18 DIGITAL ........... 20 3 | UK MEDIA FORECASTS NOV 2018 GroupM 26 Red Lion Square London WC1R 4HQ United Kingdom All rights reserved. This publication is protectedby copyright. No part of it may be reproduced,stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in anyform, or by any means, electronic, mechanical,photocopying or otherwise, without writtenpermission from the copyright owners. Every efort has been made to ensure the accuracyof the contents, but the publishers and copyrightowners cannot accept liability in respect of errorsor omissions. Readers will appreciate that thedata is as up-to-date only to the extent that theiravailability, compilation and printed schedules willallow and are subject to change. UK MEDIA FORECASTS NOV 2018 This YearNext Year THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR 4 | UK MEDIA FORECASTS NOV 2018 The government’s ‘Ofce for Budget Responsibility’ has no special gift for astrology, but determinesBrexit damage will be ‘relatively small’. Another forecaster, Oxford Economics, reckons a no-dealBrexit would mean the economy grows 27% by 2030 instead of 31%. HSBC thinks ‘no deal’ wouldspell an immediate 2% recession. What is perhaps more illuminating is Deloitte’s October 2018CFO survey, which found ‘Brexit being by far the biggest threat to British business over the next 12months, ahead of weak demand, trade wars and geopolitics.’This feeds into a gloomy narrative of cost reduction and deferred investment/hiring. The economyis actually doing OK, with GDP growth sequentially accelerating to 0.7% in the rolling quarter toend-August 2018; wages growing 2.9% May–July 2018, the fastest in more than three years; and inMarch the manufacturing sector (admittedly only 10% of the economy) marking its longest sustainedperiod of job creation in 40 years. Weak sterling will have helped: a foating national currency is a giftthe eurozone foreswore itself 20 years ago. Brexit might produce another surge: some would arguethis is to be welcomed as an ‘automatic stabiliser’ and worth some short-term pain. 2017 media investment growth of 6.4% is looking more like the peak we suggested, as we shave ouroutlook for 2018 to 6.0% 2018 (from 6.1%) and 4.8% 2019 (from 5.1%). Pure-play internet growthappears to us to be slowing down. We have digital growth pegged back to 11% for the full year2018 and another step down to 9% for 2019. This would still account for all net new growth in UKadvertising investment. As we see in other countries, TV price infation arising from the loss of the measured 16–34 audienceinfation is becoming painful for advertisers and killing growth in TV ad investment in developedeconomies generally. Facebook is still winning share of audio-visual investment, and is heavily video- biased for large advertisers. But TV is still doing the big basic things well: arguing its case for safetyand certainty, with convincing proofs of ROI. Print brands are still losing more in traditional than they gain in digital, but the medium is gettingbetter at collective defence. In audience measurement, the new PAMCo system is already deployedtactically, and will shape advertiser strategy as it beds in. Sales point collaboration has progressedmarkedly with the national publishers’ Ozone ofer, and multi-title packaging remains a competitiveand popular option for advertisers, buttressed by recent ownership consolidation.Our radio forecast is up, as rising demand pours into well-sold inventory. Radio resilience comesfrom relatively limited loss of young audiences; from not depending upon them excessively for adsales anyway; selling an ambiance rather than particular programmes; from being a passive medium;and being free to the listener. Sports popularity is under attack from festivals, gaming, social mediaand piracy. Radio sufers none of this. Last time we thought out-of-home’s digital build out had gone about as far as it could, but it is stillgoing. There is enough digital capacity to get a solus-digital national campaign away in small sizesat high prices. The digital price is falling, and will have to fall a lot more before national campaignson solus digital 48s are going to make sense. The day may yet come. Today our fgures show digitalcommanding 50% of ad investment. 60% is in reach. Progress in advanced out-of-home targetingremains incremental, hemmed in by multiple standards and formats. Introduction 。。。。。。