。22 February 2019 EM Macro and Strategy Focus■Credit: Moderating inows, a busy primary market, and weakness in some high-yielders explain the 20bp widening in benchmark spread since February. We have reduced beta but expect spreads to hold the recent range. Reduce OW in Argentina but keep UW on the Mexico complex. Less than feared SOE support limited the impact of SoA's budget announcement, but execution risk remains. We recently turned OW on Egypt while we stay OW on Oman – the latter also supported by reduced supply expectations. In RV, we favor Argentina Pars vs. 48s, 10s30s curve steepeners in Pemex and Mexico, Oman 28s vs. SOAF 28s, and long basis in Russia (23s vs.5Y CDS). Figure 1: Best & Worst FX Performance Figure 2: Best & Worst Rates Performance 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% -0.9% -1.5% -1.7% -4.4% USD/THB USD/CLP EUR/CZK USD/CNY EUR/KZT EUR/TRY EUR/ZAR USD/ARS Weekly Return (%) -11 -10 -7 -5 0 1 15 50 HUF PLN MXN BRL ZAR MYR CZK TRY Weekly 5Y IRSSpread Chg (bps) Source: Global Markets ResearchSource: Global Markets Research Page 2Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 22 February 2019 EM Macro and Strategy FocusTable Of Contents Top Trades...........4 Top Economic Releases..5 EM Global Strategy.6 EM Flows - Inows continue but have further weakened..........6 Latam Strategy........8 BRL’s Gradual Ascent: The Drivers........8 LatAm rates strategy update....12 CEEMEA Strategy.17 Where is the value in CEEMEA local bonds..17 Turkey Local Markets - Foreign ow update....19 Local Markets Portfolio update22 Supply/Demand dynamics – recapping the week........23 Economics Focus..24 Asia.......24 CEEMEA25 LatAm...26 Economics and Market Analytics.30 Value in EM Fixed Income: A model approach30 Economics and Markets Highlights.....32 Bond Auctions..33 Economic Releases.......35 Economic Releases.......36 All Open Trade Recommendations.......38 Recent Publications......39 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.Page 3 22 February 2019 EM Macro and Strategy FocusTop Trades CountryTrade NameInitiationLast ActionLast ActionDateEntryCurrentTargetStop 1IsraelShort USD/ILS14Jan19Initiation14Jan193.663.613.563.72 2Russia/South AfricaShort ZAR/RUB07Jan19Initiation07Jan194.814.684.505.00 3South Africa buy 6m vol swaps31Jan19Initiation31Jan1915.8%16.6% 4TurkeyShort USD/TRY21Jan19Chg Target/Stop01Feb195.355.335.055.40 1Brazil / South AfricaBuy BRL/ZAR09Jan19Initiation3.753.723.933.62 2ChileSell USD/CLP14Feb19Chg Target/Stop21Feb19666651648660 3ColombiaSell USD/COP14Feb19Initiation3150312430603205 4Mexico / RussiaSell MXN/RUB09Jan19Initiation3.503.403.333.61 5PeruSell USD/PEN14Feb19Initiation3.343.313.303.36 1Czech Republic2Y2Y IRS payer09Jan19Initiation09Jan191.741.882.401.50 2Hungary9x12 FRA receiver09Jan19Initiation09Jan190.710.690.501.00 3Hungary2s10s IRS steepener03Jan19Chg Stop30Jan19130139190105 4Israel1Y1Y IRS receiver08Jan19Chg Target/Stop01Feb190.850.660.550.85 1BrazilReceive BRL Jan22 06Feb19Initiation7.717.746.807.95 2ChilePay CLP/CAM 2Yr14Feb19Initiation3.273.313.553.15 3ChileSwitchfrom CLP BTP 43s to 35s 14Feb19Initiation-9.00-8.03-25.005.00 4ColombiaReceive 3Y COP IBR Swap05Dec18ChgStop13Dec185.184.904.704.95 5MexicoMBONOS 38s vs. 20Y TIIE14Feb19Initiation-12.00-12.27-30.00-5.00 1Egypt Long Egypt 29s19Feb19Initiation100.00101.18102.5099.00 2Oman, BahrainOMAN 23s vs. BHRAIN 23s09Jan19Initiation0.940.570.301.20 3Oman, South Afr.Oman 28s vs. SOAF 28s13Feb19Initiation1.441.191.151.75 4RussiaLong basis - 23s / 5y CDS07Dec18Change target/stop21Feb19-0.4511.48-25.0020.00 1ArgentinaSwitch from 48s to Pars13Feb19Initiation27.5922.940.0040.00 2Ecuador27s vs. 23s13Feb19Initiation118.20116.6275.00140.00 3Mexico27s vs. 47s13Feb19Initiation-53.34-52.85-75.00-45.00 4PanamaPanama 24s vs. 28s07Feb19Initiation-12.50-13.19-30.00-5.00 5Pemex27s vs. 44s13Feb19Initiation-37.67-43.90-68.00-25.00 Credit Trades EMEA LATAM FX Trades EMEA LATAM Rates Trades EMEA LATAM Page 4Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 。。。。。。